Recent content by ep1987

I elaborated a bit on my last post. I think you overestimate how rational horseracing markets are, especially before the algorithm bettors get stuck in on the exchanges and even then some knowledge of 'soft' factors can be key.

Completely untrue in my experience. Weighing the most relevant pieces of information (which change race to race, as does the importance) to find value is definitely possible. In the past I could have been convinced that Befair SP was fairly rational but that isn't what I've observed. Sure...

The article DO is referring to: https://www.racingtv.com/news/raceiq-data-1000-and-2000-guineas-verdicts-and-tips-newmarket This could be a useful thread if people post reasoning for their late picks. My observation would be that the FSP% analysis in the article is pretty shallow (needs to be...

I'm pretty sure that algorithms taking into account past runs are just a way of quantifying most of the key variables. Sectionals are just another aspect of form like trip handicapping or going preferences. The only 'math' based approach that I'm aware of is using software that predicts price...

What exactly is maths when it comes to horseracing betting?

Thanks guys and obviously a big thankyou to Faye for running things. Don't think I did anything special with my picks, just managed to get enough of the right ones in the same list.

Bet365 will definitely shut you down if you are flagged as an advantage bettor and you don't even have to win that much or hammer them on a single slow price update. If you often beat SP handily and cash out the exchange drifters to back on there instead then your time will be limited. It's an...

Small thing but none of the currently pinned topics should be there. "What are you backing today?" and "The longshot thread" are two that may as well always appear at the top; I think that would be a consensus view. Maybe the antepost thread too as well as horses to follow; basically anything...

The difficulty with all bookmakers is not knowing exactly how far you can push it. If you play things safe you may end up restricted anyway if their algorithm doesn't like you and feel like you didn't make the most of the account. The best advice I can give is to get in and out with firms that...

There are far too many boards; I honestly expect that people will just keep on using the general racing topics for anything racing related.

There's a big difference between 10/11 in January and 10/11 in April given the chance for a setback is constantly diminishing. I'm surprised that the price on the exchanges hasn't contracted; effectively he's very weak in the betting although the odds haven't lengthened. Liquidity on betfair is...

Withdrawal: Lose via PP Poker; that's the only way that I could see. The reason for the fav bet on the virtual racing will be to boost any balances too low to risk the withdrawal step. Why roulette isn't preferred I'm not sure (quicker and less of a house edge) outside of maybe having run into...

2nd: Mystical Power, Found A Fifty, Twig, Irish Point, Telmesomethinggirl, Eagles Reign, Embassy Gardens Jimmy Du Seuil, Monty's Star, Ballyadam, Gentleman De Mee, Libberty Hunter, Romeo Coolio Ginny's Destiny, Kyntara, Envoi Allen, Flooring Porter, Crebilly, Brigherdaysahead, Git Maker Kargese...

Probably won't matter but the 2nd and 3rd place points from Cheltenham aren't reflected in the above table. If they haven't been added yet then I don't mind compiling a list of all the 2nds (10 points) and 3rds (5 points) if that would help.

We'll see soon enough but I don't expect any shenanigans given they won't want to reignite the restriction debate, won't want to tarnish a potential victory and Bartlett has already said his horses won't run if the ground isn't suitable (by Thursday the chances of Good to Soft are likely to be...