Ian_Davies
Apprentice
One of my favourite days of the year next Saturday - the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
Though I'm fortunate enough to have double-digit odds about City Of Troy ante-post, I am less convinced than some that he is a moral certainty.
I don't think he'd want it too Soft (he was withdrawn from the National Stakes because of the ground) and he's not the biggest.
Being by Justify (unraced at two, won the USA Triple Crown at three) you'd think he was a tub-thumping lay down to train on.
But while it's still early days, I just wonder about a few of Justify's progeny.
In Arabian Lion and Aspen Grove, he has sired the winners of a Woody Stephens Stakes and a Belmont Oaks, but his biggest success at stud so far I think has been with 2yos - Opera Singer in the Prix Marcel Boussac, Just F Y I in the Frizette Stakes and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Hard To Justify in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and of course City Of Troy himself.
Plus Ramatuelle was a small speedy juvenile filly, who didn't look to have grown much when beaten in the Prix Imprudence on her seasonal debut and Just F Y I got beat on her 3yo seasonal debut too.
Maybe the latter will allay my concerns by winning the Kentucky Oaks on Friday night - we'll see.
But all of this led me to construct a bit of a backer's book, adding Henry Longfellow after he won the National Stakes in case it was a quagmire on Guineas Day and they ran him as well or instead, Rosallion, though as a Blue Point I'm not absolutely certain he will get the mile and his stable mate Haatem who though pulverised twice by the jolly at two has at least demonstrated he has trained on.
My position on the Kentucky Derby is only marginally more straight forward.
I thought the very best USA juvenile form was on show in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last autumn and Fierceness annihilated them all.
I backed him for the Kentucky Derby on the spot.
To my chagrin and consternation he got beat at fives on on his reappearance in February.
But he returned to form with a scintillating display in the Florida Derby where he made all and won half the track.
He had a soft lead (won't happen in the Run For The Roses) and he's clearly not the most consistent, but if in the same form he doesn't have to lead, I'm confident his jockey will just set the fractions that suit him and just lie handy and he will be hard to beat.
The danger must be Sierra Leone, who wasn't as visually spectacular but won the Bluegrass Stakes going away at Keeneland.
I first attended the 2,000 Guineas as a 19yo university student in 1982, I won't be there this year but, 42 years on, I'm still as excited about it now as I was then.
Though I'm fortunate enough to have double-digit odds about City Of Troy ante-post, I am less convinced than some that he is a moral certainty.
I don't think he'd want it too Soft (he was withdrawn from the National Stakes because of the ground) and he's not the biggest.
Being by Justify (unraced at two, won the USA Triple Crown at three) you'd think he was a tub-thumping lay down to train on.
But while it's still early days, I just wonder about a few of Justify's progeny.
In Arabian Lion and Aspen Grove, he has sired the winners of a Woody Stephens Stakes and a Belmont Oaks, but his biggest success at stud so far I think has been with 2yos - Opera Singer in the Prix Marcel Boussac, Just F Y I in the Frizette Stakes and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Hard To Justify in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and of course City Of Troy himself.
Plus Ramatuelle was a small speedy juvenile filly, who didn't look to have grown much when beaten in the Prix Imprudence on her seasonal debut and Just F Y I got beat on her 3yo seasonal debut too.
Maybe the latter will allay my concerns by winning the Kentucky Oaks on Friday night - we'll see.
But all of this led me to construct a bit of a backer's book, adding Henry Longfellow after he won the National Stakes in case it was a quagmire on Guineas Day and they ran him as well or instead, Rosallion, though as a Blue Point I'm not absolutely certain he will get the mile and his stable mate Haatem who though pulverised twice by the jolly at two has at least demonstrated he has trained on.
My position on the Kentucky Derby is only marginally more straight forward.
I thought the very best USA juvenile form was on show in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last autumn and Fierceness annihilated them all.
I backed him for the Kentucky Derby on the spot.
To my chagrin and consternation he got beat at fives on on his reappearance in February.
But he returned to form with a scintillating display in the Florida Derby where he made all and won half the track.
He had a soft lead (won't happen in the Run For The Roses) and he's clearly not the most consistent, but if in the same form he doesn't have to lead, I'm confident his jockey will just set the fractions that suit him and just lie handy and he will be hard to beat.
The danger must be Sierra Leone, who wasn't as visually spectacular but won the Bluegrass Stakes going away at Keeneland.
I first attended the 2,000 Guineas as a 19yo university student in 1982, I won't be there this year but, 42 years on, I'm still as excited about it now as I was then.
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