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Irish Derby 2025

archie said:
Going forward, Lazy Griff at 9/1 strikes me as a decent ew bet in the Leger. It's a defined target and his apparent main rivals may well go elsewhere.
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I agree, and have taken this. From what appeared to be last at one point yesterday to nicking third on the line, the extra two furlongs to my simple mind would play to his strengths.
 
Haggas will be cheered up - perhaps Merchant might skip the Gordon and throw his hat into the KG ring now. I think there is something amiss with Pride of Arras.
 
Ardross said:
Haggas will be cheered up - perhaps Merchant might skip the Gordon and throw his hat into the KG ring now. I think there is something amiss with Pride of Arras.
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I'll be checking the new ORs tomorrow morning to see if the UK handicapper adjusts Merchant and Pantile Warrior up again. I might have to wait until next week since they might not take yesterday's form into account until then but I won't be surprised if it happens.

Get It only went up 4lbs for winning the Wokingham in a near-record time yet Pantile Warrior, third to Merchant, went up 8lbs. It was a shit-hot race but it might be even better than I originally thought.

It will be interesting, too, to see where the other beaten runners behind Merchant end up going.
 
Slim said:
The ground at Ascot was lightening. There is no comparison.
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It was the quickest I can remember whereas the curragh was good/good to yielding on friday and although the ground was good/good to firm it still wouldn't be anywhere near as quick as ascot was.
 
They opened up a fresh strip on that rail for yesterday's card, there was a moderate breeze and the ground was changed to good to firm in places later in the afternoon.

Even the opening 9f handicap won by a 3yo running off 78 was less than a second slower than standard and the second race was won by an older 83 horse in only 0.2s slow.

The race immediately after the Derby was over CD and won by an older 89 horse in a time that works out about 19lbs slower than Lambourn.

There was never any soft in it yesterday and it got faster through the afternoon.

I'd be confident this will be addressed by Simon Rowlands in his analysis when it comes out, probably on Tuesday or Wednesday.
 
Ascot was very quick but they put 5mm on every night - and isnt the accepted wisdom nowadays that horse run fastest on good to firm rather than firm ground ?
 
BTW,Lamboutn wasn't "flat out".
He wouldn't rave gained ground in the finish ,if that were the case.That he did so twice illustrates his class better than any rating would,hmo.
 
Surely they'll go for the King George now and we can find out for certain how good he is or isn't.
 
Reading all this, it all sounds like what Mrs Merton would have called a "heated debate!" 😂

I rather like Lambourn - he didn't have things his own way this time, but he still won and if he'd stormed home by eight the "Time Lords" would have been going loopy over his clocking.

It is possible for horses to improve from smart handicapper to Group 1 contender and a winner doesn't have to bolt in, or it and the runner up to be a parish clear of the third, for form to be decent.

They finished in a bit of a heap in Night Of Thunder's 2,000 Guineas and that form turned out to be insanely hot.

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see Lambourn win the King George - very likeable colt who thoroughly stays 1m4f and for me has now won Group 1s on markedly different shades of ground.
 
Does anyone actually rate Simon Rowlands? No one ever pushes back on his opinions, they are just taken as gospel.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the meantime this is his take on the actual race:

View attachment 24238
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I don't mind you posting Simon's material - it's usually an interesting read if nothing else - but if I ever find you you've a shrine to the bloke on your property, Maurice, that's going too far! 😂

Simon is IMO a nice bloke, who is passionate about his subject, but his opinion is no more valuable than yours, Maurice, or anyone else's.

On another subject, Aidan O'Brien enlisted to defend yesterday's card, robust defence from the fella at The Curragh too.

But he can say what he likes, in the same way the end-of-season league table in football doesn't lie, the crowd figures (and in a year with relatively few other major sporting distractions) tell their own story.
 
Slim said:
Does anyone actually rate Simon Rowlands? No one ever pushes back on his opinions, they are just taken as gospel.
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He digs deeper and uses a lot of metrics and other data that I wouldn't have access to so I just like to see what he has to say. If he backs up what I think it gives me confidence. If he comes up with something quite different It makes me want to double check my own analysis.

He was a Timeform man for years and was on here for a long time with the ndp of Prufrock. Talked sense.
 
My only thought on the race was they went fast and Lambourn should have been vulnerable up the straight. The reality is I'm unlikely to test any read of the race going forward.
 
An element of my take would be that he went fast and in theory it could have made him vulnerable but they largely went with him and they were inferior animals so were arguably taken out of their comfort zone.

On the RaceIQ metrics Thrice was much the slowest horse in the race yet he was in with the pack having come from the back. He probably got one of the best rides relative to his ability.
 
Desert Orchid said:
An element of my take would be that he went fast and in theory it could have made him vulnerable but they largely went with him and they were inferior animals so were arguably taken out of their comfort zone.

On the RaceIQ metrics Thrice was much the slowest horse in the race yet he was in with the pack having come from the back. He probably got one of the best rides relative to his ability.
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Looking back at some times, it's not unusual for the time of the race to be fast. For whatever reason they don't mess around and just go hard at the Curragh.
 
You’ll have to wait - or scroll- to near the end to see the Irish Derby analysed, but it’s interesting

 
As a few have said I don't see the point in fixating on ratings. Lambourn was pulling away at the end and did the necessary to win. He takes his racing well and could well improve further. Rating can't tell if a horse will improve or regress the next run. The acid test will be how serious contender gets on next time. The voltigeur would be the ideal race to find out and relate to Lambourn.
 
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As regards ratings serious contender was 92 before ascot and 10 days later he's improved 23lbs. I know aidan said they looked after his handicap mark for ascot but even so that stretches credibility. Surely if he is improving that rapidly he will be a serious horse by the end of the season. Paddington had a similar trajectory so should be interesting. Travelled supremely well and just done by a better stayer. Will be fascinating to see how he fares the rest of the season. By the hottest sire around he could well dine at the top table
 
Desert Orchid said:
On the RaceIQ metrics Thrice was much the slowest horse in the race yet he was in with the pack having come from the back. He probably got one of the best rides relative to his ability.
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I've had another look and it's possible Lazy Griff actually got the best (or least ineffective) ride. I think it's the ATR results section that [eventually] grades the efficiency of the rides. I doubt anything from the other day will emerge with an A.

I'm new to these race metrics but I'm wondering if Shackleton might be coming out well with the Leger in mind. I think he had the longest stride and the best maximum speed.

The other thing I noticed is that none of the field hit a max speed of 40mph whereas the on-screen graphic on RTV showed 41mph in the early stages. I can only presume they were showing the speedo from a tracking vehicle (which I don't think is acceptable).
 
One thing I liked about the Irish Derby was the pre race parade.
Every Group 1 race should have one if only to test a horse's temperament for the big occasion.
Breeding horses of a nervous disposition serves neither breed nor man.
Lambourn has to win a 10f Group 1 to stand as a flat sire alas.
York would be made for him to wind up the race from a long ways out a la Comanche Run 40 years ago.
He will no doubt be susceptible to a horse with a finishing kick but has a 4 furlong plus straight to run it out of them.
The lack of fresh ground at Royal Ascot is a deficiency that should be addressed especially with so many Gp 1 races methinks.
Regarding the handicaps on Irish Derby Day I first went there in 1979.
Race 1 5f 3yo handicap.
Race 2 Tyros Stakes 2yo winners race.
Race 3 Irish Derby
Race 4 Scurry handicap 6f 3/4yo plus
Race 5 Pretty Polly G2 10f 3yo fillies only
Race 6 1m 4f 3yo plus handicap
Race 7 2 mile handicap 3/4yo plus.
Nearly 30,000 attended, Raceday Special trains from all parts of the country.
 
I agree they'd love to win a 1m2f Group 1 with Lambourn.

Whereas connections were happy to go Derby > Irish Derby > King George with Galileo all those years ago, they took the Derby > Irish Derby > International Stakes route with Australia.

The great thing about that 1m2f Group 1 at York is it isn't actually 1m2f! 😂

It's 1m2f110yds and I first appreciated that extra 110yds in 1980 when I was there when Master Willie just outstayed Cairn Rouge - the filly later turned the tables over an actual 1m2f in the Champion Stakes.

Troy actually took the Epsom > Curragh > Ascot > York route successfully in 1979 - though it probably did for him in the Arc - I don't see it happening in the modern era but I'd love it if they tried that with Lambourn.
 
Would love that too. Over to the lads. I suppose it depends on the eclipse and how the coolmore runners get on there. They have jan brugheul for the king george so why not. They are a sporting bunch I'd say.
 

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