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The 2025 Newmarket July Meeting

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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I'm aware we're entering another heatwave, but they haven't half put some water on the track since last Friday (and that's despite 5mm rain on Sunday).

The ground is but one piece in the betting jigsaw, but they've got previous for this on the July Course and if you fancy something that wants it like a road, today, at least, I wouldn't absolutely bank on them getting it and checking the early race times (allowing for wind speed and direction) might be even more worthwhile than usual.
 

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Looks like they've needed that water.

I'm not sure anything will want it like a road and will be happy just to avoid anything that needs 'soft' in the surface.

The Turftrax map for today:

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Day One.

Notebooks:

I thought Maximised - 2:25 - was very impressive at Haydock - 22/5 very impressive debut beating his Buick favoured stablemate Time to Turn (who wasn’t to shabby either) with the rest miles away. Royal Ascot bound? - and he followed that up taking the Woodcote at Epsom. He ducked the Coventry at Royal Ascot to come here and I think he’ll take all the beating.

Two of them in the 3:00. I thought Double Rush was unfortunate to be racing away from the action last time at York - 14/6 at the back and on the outside a couple or so out. He finished strongly, but had nothing to race against.” If Admiral Rous knew his business the revised weights should bring them close together, but if Hucklesbrook had something in hand the booking of Ryan Moore will certainly bring it out. Will watch the market.

Tawasol made a nonsense of his opening mark and won very impressively last time, but it was only a class four - 18/5 won impressively off 82 and if the handicapper doesn’t go mad (as he might) he can go in again.” - Unfortunately, the handicapper did go a bit mad and raised him 11lb. If he really is as good as he looked, then I expect he will at least out run his odds and I am a little tempted.

King Of Cities - 4:45 - never featured last time in the French Derby, but before that he was unlucky in the Feilden at Newmarket - 15/4 went down by a length with the rest miles away despite being carried across the track by the winner. The stewards “could not be satisfied that without interference, KING OF CITIES (IRE) would have finished in front of ALMERIC if it had been afforded an uninterrupted run to the line.” Maybe, maybe not.”. Hot little race this one, though.

Palladium - 3:35 - is an entire who took a bit of a risk trying hurdles with Nikki Henderson. He was just over a length behind third placed Ghostwriter when coming fourth with Sunway in the Hardwick at Royal Ascot. He ran out of puff in the last furlong, but he did blow awfully hard afterwards and will probably strip considerably fitter this time.
 
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barjon said:
Day One.

Notebooks:

...

Palladium - 3:35 - is an entire who took a bit of a risk trying hurdles with Nikki Henderson. He was just over a length behind third placed Ghostwriter when coming fourth with Sunway in the Hardwick at Royal Ascot. He ran out of puff in the last furlong, but he did blow awfully hard afterwards and will probably strip considerably fitter this time.
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The colouring and emphasis are mine.

Being 99.9999% a TV viewer of racing and never having been brought up around horses, can blowing hard after a race not just mean it was drained of energy despite being fully fit?

We see olympic athletes gasping for breath after a big effort on the track. Aren't horses the same?
 
Well, I wasn’t there (not that it would have made much difference) and can only go by reports. I’ve always taken it that a fully fit horse “couldn’t blow out a candle” after the race and I suppose those who really know horses are saying such things in relative terms. Perhaps jinnyj can enlighten us.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I'm aware we're entering another heatwave, but they haven't half put some water on the track since last Friday (and that's despite 5mm rain on Sunday).

The ground is but one piece in the betting jigsaw, but they've got previous for this on the July Course and if you fancy something that wants it like a road, today, at least, I wouldn't absolutely bank on them getting it and checking the early race times (allowing for wind speed and direction) might be even more worthwhile than usual.
Click to expand...

The July Course must be a top-10 track where punters do their brains every single year.
 
I backed Ghostwriter a couple of times last season. A nice horse, but he reeks of the type that can run well in a Group 1 and still find a way to get beaten today.

I've bet Palladium at 9/2 to reverse the form from Royal Ascot.
 
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Wouldn't disagree with your assessment of Ghostwriter Slim but can't see the reversal myself. I'd think Wimbledon Hawkeye stands more chance a fair enough effort his first try over the 12F. Took a keen hold in first time headgear and they've removed it for today that should help him settle better amd combined with the long straight here I also think that will aid his cause. I'd see him as the biggest danger if Ghostwriter is monkeying around. They'll be the first 2 home I reckon wouldn't be sure in which order.
 
Wimbledon Hawkeye looks like a horse they over-raced at two. He’s getting worse, not better. El Cordobes would be my idea of a lively outsider. How many of these would win a handicap off 100? Probably fewer than you'd think.
 
WARNING ⚠️

FULL RANT IN OPERATION

Scamdanavia wins the first like a good thing. Anyone with f$%^ing eyes could see it. But Nick Luck still comes out with:
“Angus will have more to say when he analyses the times and data and tells us what he really achieved.”

He won the race, Nick. That’s what he achieved. Give me f$%^ing strength.

Then Angus tells us he showed a burst of speed in the final furlong. He’s a f$%^ing stayer. They don’t quicken. They keep going.

Luck then interviews some bird and calls it a great melting pot—while talking to one with more plastic in her face than a Barbie doll.
 
One of the many things I detest about the racing media (and media generally) is all this: "What WE learned...." or what "WE" anythinged stuff.

Speak for your F-ing selves, there are people watching who know ten times what you know and Hell will freeze over before your "analysis" will teach them a single thing.

So, yes, broadly speaking, "one concurs!" 😂
 
So I switch to ITV. Ed Chamberlain, beaming, tells us the video of John Gosden—affectionately known as the BBC (Big Bald c***)—tearing into William Buick after the Eclipse is no big deal.

“The Race IQ data clearly tells us he did nothing wrong.”

Well that’s that sorted then. Never forget: an idiot with data is still a f$%^ing idiot.
 
Slim said:
WARNING ⚠️

FULL RANT IN OPERATION

Scamdanavia wins the first like a good thing. Anyone with f$%^ing eyes could see it. But Nick Luck still comes out with:
“Angus will have more to say when he analyses the times and data and tells us what he really achieved.”

He won the race, Nick. That’s what he achieved. Give me f$%^ing strength.

Then Angus tells us he showed a burst of speed in the final furlong. He’s a f$%^ing stayer. They don’t quicken. They keep going.
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:)

For me there's a difference between winning the race and what it means in terms of bigger pictures.

The horse didn't quicken in the final furlong but he was the only one to run the penultimate one quicker than the antepenultimate one. It's maybe a moot point as to whether that amounts to 'quicken'ing but if not many other horses have a history of doing so then it helps figure out what it 'achieved' in terms of a physical performance rather than a betting one.
 
barjon said:
Well, after the second race WE know for sure that barjon can’t even pick his nose. No wonder they ducked the Coventry.
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And of course I switched channels to save listening to the obsequious fawning.....🤮
 
Both channels have referenced sub-standard Group 1s in Italy and Germany in today’s coverage. Will any of them say that the Prince of Wales’s Stakes was an utter bag of shite of a race?
 
I can't see them using those exact words, to be fair. :)

Also, to be fair, there were two OR115s that finished a short-head apart, beaten by horses rated 123, 118, 119, 123 and 118, and the winner has given them a 15lbs beating.

I think it's too early to say it was excremental.
 
"There's no one of Lester Piggott and Steve Cauthen's quality any more," members of my generation are prone to saying.

Actually, bloody good though they both were (and I'd actually have Cauthen marginally ahead of Piggott), neither were totally immune to making mistakes.

The best in this elite game of fine margins, is the one who makes the fewest errors, the least incompetent, in my book, anyway.

Anyway, I'd have Ryan Moore up there with both of them, but I'm not sure he shone in the July Stakes today - not that it directly affected me, I bet the runner up, got the market leaders beat, but still didn't get paid. 😂
 
Ian_Davies said:
The best in this elite game of fine margins, is the one who makes the fewest errors, the least incompetent, in my book, anyway.

Anyway, I'd have Ryan Moore up there with both of them, but I'm not sure he shone in the July Stakes today - not that it directly affected me, I bet the runner up, got the market leaders beat, but still didn't get paid. 😂
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I slag Moore a lot but I agree (and I used to slag Piggott - I actually tended to avoid backing his mounts 'cos I didn't trust him. I always held the opinion that he was a crook.)

Of the modern day jockeys Dettori probably made fewest mistakes when it mattered but was also guilty of easing off when it was clear to him that he wasn't going to win.

Cauthen made the fewest of the lot. Gary Stevens was very good, generally, in that regard too.
 
Gary Stevens accused me of trying to kill him once.......:LOL:

I had been cleaning all the bridles at the barn but being me, I was determined to do it “properly” so instead of using this all-in-one cleaner that they also used to clean the floors with, I went off to the store and bought Neatsfoot oil and glycerin saddle soap which as I had been well taught in the Pony Club, the correct method! However what I failed to realise was that leather in the US is pre-treated so doesn’t absorb oil properly. Well Gary was up on one of ours in a race and he was a real puller. Came back in cursing and swearing accusing everyone of deliberately sabotaging the reins and he could have been killed...etc. I quietly slunk off and took the horse plus offending bridle back to the barn area. He was a huge wuss in any case...😂
 
Day Two

Yesterday Maximised (like Astrazar and Tawasol) couldn’t cut it in the higher grade. Beautiful cygnets who turned out to be ugly ducks. Palladium was a dismal failure and King Of Cities had to wait for a run, although I don’t think it made much difference. Getting money back on the non running Double Rush seemed like a major result!

Three notebooks today, but little to bet:

2:25 Venetian Sun - Karl Burke thinks she’s very special and after her impressive Group 3 win in the Albany at Ascot last time he said “ I haven't had a 2yo filly do work like it; just the last six weeks. She's kicking older group horses out the way at home. I worked a good, old work horse with her about a month ago or just after her debut and I had to work her with another good one that I knew was reliable and she did the same to him and I'm talking 110 rated horses. I think she's very special” . I dare say she fully justifies the 4/7 price, but I won’t be playing.

3:00 Real Dream and Endless Victory.

I was surprised with the good run into third by Real Dream at Sandown in a Listed race only a week ago, because I think he’s been trying to fly too high and I’ve been waiting for a drop to Class 3 or a weak 2 (which this isn’t). So, I’ll pass despite that run and despite that he’s come in to 8/1 from 16/1 last evening.

So, that leaves Endless Victory. After a couple of abortive runs in Meydan he ran in the Copper Horse at Ascot where, by accident or design, he broke slowly and tacked over from an outside stall, by which time he was at the back and raced fifteen and more lengths behind the leaders. There he stayed until into the straight when Buick gradually worked him through horses to finish seventh of the sixteen runners. Never looked like challenging, but it was a sound run considering his race was more or less over at the start. Not sure it justifies favouritism today.
 
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I stopped listening years ago. Same old 20 - 25 expressions churned out over and over post race. I get that in the top class races there might be a clarification that a horse is now going to be aimed at X race, so handy for antepost wager. Apart from that, it all seems a bit pointless.


As for the race commentry, I don't have the audio on for that either. Very distracting, "and just in behind is X with the big white face", now tell me you didn't look at the big white face, or "the purple colours on the outside" etc etc. The commentry has your eyes moving all over the place. No audio and you absorb so much more, narow it down to 3 - 6 horses going well and soak most of it up. It's all done for 'thrilling entertainment'.
I also recall a few years back noticing the thunder of hooves audio being added, someone in audio had messed up, the horses had crossed the line, some were close to walking, yet the audio was still playing as if it were a cavalry charge with 16 of them doing 40mph inside the final furlong.

Silence is golden.
 

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