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What are you backing Today? Part 2

Was pondering if I should give Park Street another chance in the Beverley 5:00, but it's forecast to lash down during the meeting. Is better on GD - GDfm over CD, but needs to find itself infront rather than accelerating to win.
If the weather forecast is correct, it'll end up SFT by the 5:00. Carolus Magnus & Saisons d'Or will likely be pulled out (having been a few times previously when the ground turns), leaving the dead 8, so one more NR and EW takes a place a hit.
Lastchancezouloon (the sole 3yo in the field) wont mind SFT, but there's a few of them that are relatively unkown when running on it.
Evocative Spark could be the answer, but would be betting for it to bounce back to last years form (or anything close to it's best). Is better on turf, wont mind conditions and also likes the CD. New yard is of concern and comign back from a break (which may not be a negative).
Having gone around in circles, I think the best angle is to watch the afternoon market with Evocative Spark, that's on top of weather watching.
Bit of a farce, but thought I'd issue a weather warning and post my view on the race.
 
Some plays for Beverley today

2.30-Dunkeld Dreamer @ 11-8 Nap
3.30-Homeland @ 10-3
5.00-Kracking @ 13-2

Win Patent
 
PlaceBacker said:
Could have been worse
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Didn't rain as much as forecast. Mine finished 3rd, went for win single, as figured it either would or wouldn't perform.
I'm wondering if there's some high hills to the W / SW of Beverley, as when watching the rain radar, it seemed to quickly turn from heavy to light before reaching the course. This has happened before with the forecasts for Beverley. Will take a look on GE.
 
Suspicions confirmed. Going across from W / SW towards Beverley, there's the Peak District (obviously) then to the East of Sheffield down to Mansfield another band of high hills, then finally just before Beverley a final range which goes from a place called Arras to the North and down to Riplingham, kind of forming a final barrier around Beverley. It explains exactly what I saw on the rain radar (the last bit of heavy rain fizzling out just before reaching the course).

Pedantic? Maybe, but ATR and other forecasts had between 6.5mm - 10.8mm hitting the course. They probably got 3mm max.
 
Persuaded myself into a couple of punts @ Uttoxeter.

3.38 Salley Gardens 22/1 - Pulled up LTO when on debut for new yard but the form in spring makes 22/1 attractive.

4.08 Light Dragoon 11/2 - On the face of it 10 lbs rise LTO was too much but could have coincided with a below par effort. Back down 2 lbs and yard in good form.
 
Frustrating for me today. I've been a bit moody about it over the last 12 hours or so.

NEWM 6:25 LADY OF ANDROS
PONT 7:55 REIGNING PROFIT

365 were paying 3 places on the 7:55. EP's were 10/3 and 4/1. I so much wanted an EW double on the pair, but can't bet on the 7:55 here. Both have been supported a point (9/4 nd 3's), but not backing Lady Of Andros as a win single (even at the bigger EP's). Looked a great little EW double. 7:55 now down to 6 runners, but might still be a half decent bet.

Always tomorrow.
 
Hamilton 6.35

Maybe Double Rush is a proverbial good thing, but I'm happy enough to give him a miss at the price. I've kept an eye on Trilby for a while. He's on his last winning mark of 82, plus a bit of rain might enhance his prospects. His seventh place against American Affair with JM Jungle in second at York looks good form now. I've just got to hope the wind operation might work a bit of magic on him. I wish there was definitive way of knowing whether wind operations end up to prove beneficial, but I guess we only truly know after the event. That said, I've seen worse 12/1 shots than Trilby this evening.
 
Dingo Bingo said:
Frustrating for me today. I've been a bit moody about it over the last 12 hours or so.

NEWM 6:25 LADY OF ANDROS
PONT 7:55 REIGNING PROFIT

365 were paying 3 places on the 7:55. EP's were 10/3 and 4/1. I so much wanted an EW double on the pair, but can't bet on the 7:55 here. Both have been supported a point (9/4 nd 3's), but not backing Lady Of Andros as a win single (even at the bigger EP's). Looked a great little EW double. 7:55 now down to 6 runners, but might still be a half decent bet.

Always tomorrow.
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Lady of Andros was 4s at Hills when decs were made & I have some of that plus some 100/30.....though obviously a potential rule 4 with the Haggas filly coming out. I think 9/4 is still decent as the second fav Arabian Leopard who was also on my tracker earlier in the season is surely better over further.
 
Euronymous said:
Lady of Andros was 4s at Hills when decs were made & I have some of that plus some 100/30.....though obviously a potential rule 4 with the Haggas filly coming out. I think 9/4 is still decent as the second fav Arabian Leopard who was also on my tracker earlier in the season is surely better over further.
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Looks like a 10p R4. Reigning Profit is now a NR, so I'd have been on EW for 2 places. Not a bet I'd have placed.

Have tried to talk myself into backing Lady Of Andros to win, but failed. However, as a result have ended up talking myself into giving The Third Star a chance at 10/1. I think it might be a tough nut to crack. I actually have it as a bit of a coin toss that it could be a little classier than the others over this trip, so the 10/1 seemed a bit silly.
 
She should have won that, had the form. So frustrating, nice drift as well. Can't complain too much as you know what you get on the July course but I have to think she wins that if those twats don't water so much.
 
RIPON 5:38 ROUNDHAY PARK

Getting one last chance from me.
If it doesn't win this, I think it'll be retired, this might be it's last race anyway. Would be nice to see it finish with one last win at it's favourite CD.
Yard not in form, but not too concerned about that with Roundhay Park. Had to take 6/1 and use the amusement arcade multiplier gimmick, which beefed it up to around 13/2. 7's available with most UK books. I couldn't back to place either and would have gone EW if I could have.
Met office rain radar not projecting much (if any) rain hitting the course. Others sites forecasting heavy thunderstorms and buckets of rain.
Slower than GDSFT and the bet is probably doomed.

Interested in Tinto running in the 8:15 at Doncaster. Not going to be much pace on, so the step up to 7F might not be such an issue. Never got a run LTO. Currently 20/1, but again, because it's after 7:30pm UK time, I can't even have a small nibble. Need to set up some different Australian accounts, but it's such a hassle, the proof of ID needed is ludicrous. Tempted to take the piss and also send inside leg measurement, blood sample results etc.

C'mon Roundhay !!!
 
reet hard said:
Newbury looks the only meeting not due for a soaking ,imo
Ancient Wisdom 1.50.
9/2 Hill's
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Backed him also reet. I do not understand why they ran him in the Coronation Cup given he didn't seem to like the place last year in the Derby. His Sandown run reads very well and I'm not that scared of the oppo.
 
Be scared of Enfjaar, very scared :) - “17/6 - Wolferton Royal Ascot - Enfjaar just started his challenge when the “road closed” sign sprung up in front of him. Took a little while to regain momentum when clear, but it was too late then. Worth another chance.”

ps: just seen Ancient Wisdom is a non-runner
 
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