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The 2025 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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When De Beers sponsored this and simply added "Diamond" to the race title, it was surely the most understated, quality, bit of product placement ever.

Anyway, eight confirmed - Calandagan can't win it because Slim, Professor Of Ponceology at some University in Ireland has labelled him a rogue, and The Derby winner has been declared.

Cracker!
 
Calandagan needs 1m4f on good ground at Ascot. It all depends on the price — at 7/4, I'm ambivalent about him as a betting proposition.
 
The betting says Lambourn is unlikely to actually run, but if he did I can think of numerous reasons why he could be banging value for this.

The weight-for-age, the fact he's The Derby and Irish Derby winner, his likeable attitude, the fact he wouldn't facing last year's Derby winner, but instead a horse with a poor win record who got beat by last year's Derby winner.

But 29 (though all small money) on the machine suggests few think he will be declared on Thursday.
 
Epsom Coronation Cup

Jan Brueghel 5.41 (18.5%)
Calandagan 1.69 (59.2%)

With just these two runners at 100%, Calandagan was roughly a 76% chance (1.31) to beat Jan Brueghel (4.20).

Half a length later, sentiment flips entirely:

King George VI and QE Stakes (Ascot)

Jan Brueghel 3.05 (32.8%)
Calandagan 3.10 (32.3%)

Do the maths again, and now it's:

Jan Breughel 1.98 (50.4%)
Calandagan 2.02 (49.6%)

That's some market swing for just half a length.

But think:

Track: Ascot’s wide, flat track suits Calandagan’s style far better than Epsom’s twists and cambers.

Tactics: Calandagan will surely sit closer and make his move earlier. Kalpanna travelling sweetly could even tow him into the race.

Ground: Good ground? No advantage to either.

I had no doubt the 76% probability at Epsom was wrong—but after the win in France, have they finally found the key? Every dog has its day. What price are you willing to pay to find out with Calandagan? And more importantly, what way will the market go on the day?
 
Fair comment, and if my flippant remark appeared to be supergluing you in perpetuity to one previously expressed opinion, regardless of price, that was my bad.

Most horses have their price - back or lay.

Fascinating race tbf and one I couldn't possibly do a tissue on until I know what's happening with Lambourn.
 
I don't see a reason Calandagan can reverse the form — the tactics at Epsom were obvious, and they still couldn’t do anything about it. It’s a very good race, and Kalpana isn’t out of it, albeit she’d be better suited to some ease in the ground.
 
Slim said:
I don't see a reason Calandagan can reverse the form — the tactics at Epsom were obvious, and they still couldn’t do anything about it. It’s a very good race, and Kalpana isn’t out of it, albeit she’d be better suited to some ease in the ground.
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Shorter straight is against Jan as it was Los Angeles in the POW. These lumbering diesel engine types are always best served at places like Epsom and Doncaster and York.

I've approached this race like I do some Cheltenham contests where I can narrow in down to a couple or three some weeks/months out and I have rollovers going onto both the market leaders and I took 12s on Kalpana last week when I saw the weather forecast.
 
Euronymous said:
Shorter straight is against Jan as it was Los Angeles in the POW. These lumbering diesel engine types are always best served at places like Epsom and Doncaster and York.

I've approached this race like I do some Cheltenham contests where I can narrow in down to a couple or three some weeks/months out and I have rollovers going onto both the market leaders and I took 12s on Kalpana last week when I saw the weather forecast.
Click to expand...

So you'll be green on the front three on Saturday?
 
Bit of trivia, my oldest friend (I refer to him as "Leafy" in my blogs and a podcast I've been involved with a few times) was the original architect of the whole "green" thing while we were at Flutter.com in 2001.

He called the feature "Show How I Stand," (him being an ex-bookmaker) and Betfair later adopted the idea with the p/l everyone can see today.

However, I digress.

As stated, I can't do a 100% book backer's tissue on the race yet as Lambourn would be very much on my mind if declared on Thursday morning, but I can't quite have Kalpana being quite good enough the way I look at it, ditto Rebels Romance, much though I like him, unless the ground dries out in his favour and to the detriment of others.

Mickael Barzalona on a horse who has only won one of its last five races - that's some 7/4 jolly. 😂
 
Ian_Davies said:
Bit of trivia, my oldest friend (I refer to him as "Leafy" in my blogs and a podcast I've been involved with a few times) was the original architect of the whole "green" thing while we were at Flutter.com in 2001.

He called the feature "Show How I Stand," (him being an ex-bookmaker) and Betfair later adopted the idea with the p/l everyone can see today.

However, I digress.

As stated, I can't do a 100% book backer's tissue on the race yet as Lambourn would be very much on my mind if declared on Thursday morning, but I can't quite have Kalpana being quite good enough the way I look at it, ditto Rebels Romance, much though I like him, unless the ground dries out in his favour and to the detriment of others.

Mickael Barzalona on a horse who has only won one of its last five races - that's some 7/4 jolly. 😂
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If you put a gun to my head I'd take 2/1 Jan Brueghel. It is great to have a proper King George, the race deserves to be good.
 
Slim said:
If you put a gun to my head I'd take 2/1 Jan Brueghel. It is great to have a proper King George, the race deserves to be good.
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No sitting on the fence - that's what the forum is all about.

I'm guessing (correct me if I'm wrong) this is assuming Lambourn doesn't run.

For me, if Lambourn runs his price gets shorter and everything else eases.

And if Ryan Moore rides Lambourn, his price doesn't just "get shorter" - it collapses.
 
Ian_Davies said:
No sitting on the fence - that's what the forum is all about.

I'm guessing (correct me if I'm wrong) this is assuming Lambourn doesn't run.

For me, if Lambourn runs his price gets shorter and everything else eases.

And if Ryan Moore rides him, his price doesn't just "get shorter" - it collapses.
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My problem with Lambourn is if they don't run here where do they run? Putting him away for an Arc trial or the St Leger is all I've got. He's winning nothing over 10f.
 
As previously stated, I do think Lambourn would have a chance in the International Stakes (which is an extended 1m2f) IF we got a really wet August.

I also think he might enhance his stud value more by winning the York race than Delacroix (who has already won an Eclipse) would by essentially doing the same thing again.

But the current vibe is Delacroix goes to York, leaving Lambourn, if he doesn't run at Ascot on Saturday, with limited options.
 
5.9 (Round course).

It was 7.4 when Rebels Romance won the Hardwicke (1.47s fast) and 7.3 when Calandagan (0.59s fast) won the King Edward VII Stakes.

But it's only Monday - there is still plenty of time for things to change.
 
My ability to count to five remains thankfully intact.

Calandagan Mickael Barzalona
Continuous Wayne Lordan
Jan Brueghel Ryan Moore
Rebel's Romance William Buick
Kalpana Oisin Murphy
 
Ian_Davies said:
My ability to count to five remains thankfully intact.

Calandagan Mickael Barzalona
Continuous Wayne Lordan
Jan Brueghel Ryan Moore
Rebel's Romance William Buick
Kalpana Oisin Murphy
Click to expand...
It's a lovely race. Continuous might help or hinder.
 

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