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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Barnestormer said:
Also I was at York on international day last year and backed this horse.
In the winners enclosure after the race Jim Goldie gave the impression that he was not overly enamoured by the ride Paul Mulrennan had given the horse (should have been nearer the pace).
In its next race the Ayr Gold Cup Danny Tudhope took the ride and led for a long way before finishing 5th.
The only bad run in it's last nine races was in the Shergar cup!!!
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Jordan is in my stewfolio today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm another in the Cammanche Falls camp for the same reasons. I mentioned earlier in the season when it got beat that I felt this was the plan and I was never going to ignore it.

I've also backed Twilight Calls (50/1) and Vadream (33/1) for value longshots on their best form. I'm swithering about Desert Cop and will decide in the morning.
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First and second on the wrong side. 😭
 
Silent Film - 4.00 Chelmsford.

Entered for the mile in the last at Ascot on Saturday, this looks a lighter task and the current 20/1 seems way too big to me.
 
I think Certain Lad is overpriced at 25/1 in the Rose of Lancaster. Haydock 3.00 Saturday.
Has run in this race 3 times + 3 times placed. Chased home Anmaart the last twice.
Nothing near that calibre of horse in Saturdays race.
 
He always came across to me as if needing it proper soft to show his best, Robi. Until that Haydock Group 3 last year, that is. Hopefully, it won't be like a road on Saturday.
 
Ascot 3.20 Maw Lam is worth a go here at 20/1. She's got previous form in the 2024 Queen Mary when third at a big price. Her first run this season was alright, when she was actually under two lengths behind Time For Sandals who was third that day. Maw Lam appears to have gone backwards since, but I'm not totally giving up on her yet, especially now that the handicapper has dropped her another 3lbs to a handicap mark of 90. First time cheekpieces may help.
 
Curragh 3.25 Big Gossey has done his connections proud over the past few seasons. And do you know what, I think he's getting better as he's getting older. He beat Camille Pissarro, could you believe it, giving that horse 6lbs in March at this track. Camille clearly has kicked on again since over further, but still, I think that shows Big Gossey can mix it up at this level on a going day.

The last day he returned to form and was only a couple of lengths behind Diego Velazquez. I'll be interested to see how he's ridden as he's won over 7 furlongs more than once before, so you could argue he could be ridden prominently, but then this is a Group One race, which has to be factored in to the equation. Maybe just maybe, Big Gossey can run a lifetime best tomorrow and go very close. I think he's a good longshot for each way backers anyway.
 
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Newbury 2.25 King's Call to out run the odds in this. He ran extremely well at Royal Ascot when 8th in the five furlong handicap. He looks a bit of a monkey in terms of when he'll come right, but tomorrow might just be the day. He's down in the handicap, dropped in class too, worth a bet.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Newbury 2.25 King's Call to out run the odds in this. He ran extremely well at Royal Ascot when 8th in the five furlong handicap. He looks a bit of a monkey in terms of when he'll come right, but tomorrow might just be the day. He's down in the handicap, dropped in class too, worth a bet.
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I hope you are right. I thought his price was generous last night and he has drifted further since and now available at 28/1. This trainer/jockey/combination had a big price winner 2 weeks ago that drifted to 66/1, so this apparent lack of support may not be detrimental to his chance.
 
Bear Force One (3.07 Doncaster) seemed a bit generous at 66/1 last night. I see he has been cut a little, to 40/1 this morning.

He has had 2 very poor runs this season for his new trainer and they have gone for a first time eyeshield on him. He is a 9yo now, but had some form last season that would make him very competitive here. Obviously comes with risks, but worth a small interest at this price.
 
It's a very light betting day for me but I've gone with two longshots in the GSW at Ripon:

Azure Zain 33/1, 5 places, and Beyond Borders 100/1 (to the 62p PP allowed me :ROFLMAO: ) and 80/1, also 5 places.
 
In the Hungerford my main fancy has now drifted enough to qualify for the thread: Duty First 22/1

Duty Free is [top] rated on [my figures on] her Fred Darling win over 7f here and drops back to this trip for the first time since then, having taken in the three big fillies’ G1s at a mile since then and disappointing each time. She was 33/1 when she won here so the form might just flatter her but there’s an element of compensation in her price for an each-way pop against modest company. Witness Stand looked good last time but that was a surprise result and the meeting threw up a lot of dodgy results. I’ll save with a modest win bet on Spy Chief who looks the biggest improver in the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if More Thunder wins but this is a big step up from handicap company although I imagine the data crunchers will say it tops a lot of the metrics.
 
I've had a little ew at 45/1 on Wolf of Badenoch. Newbury 3.00.
A promising 2yo who probably hasn't progressed as hoped.
However it was a fair effort at Chelmsford in Aprill finishing 3 lengths off two 112 rated horses. I can easily draw a line through its last run on the dreaded straight course at Ascot.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Bear Force One (3.07 Doncaster) seemed a bit generous at 66/1 last night. I see he has been cut a little, to 40/1 this morning.

He has had 2 very poor runs this season for his new trainer and they have gone for a first time eyeshield on him. He is a 9yo now, but had some form last season that would make him very competitive here. Obviously comes with risks, but worth a small interest at this price.
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Outstanding tipping m8.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Bear Force One (3.07 Doncaster) seemed a bit generous at 66/1 last night. I see he has been cut a little, to 40/1 this morning.

He has had 2 very poor runs this season for his new trainer and they have gone for a first time eyeshield on him. He is a 9yo now, but had some form last season that would make him very competitive here. Obviously comes with risks, but worth a small interest at this price.
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Well found mate. Very nice :cheers:
 
Never noticed that brilliant winner, Mr W. Very well done!

York 3.00 - I don't think Thrice should be anywhere near the big odds going for this. It's possible it's just out for a canter round with DBMcM seemingly the fourth-choice jockey with maybe something else down the line the main target but I have it second-top rated, ORs have it third-top and RPRs also have it second-top. I've taken 66/1 (ew, 2 pl) and 20/1 (ew 2pl, without Lambourn). Couldn't find anyone going three places.
 
Thank you.

Not sure if I’ll have a bet in the Great Voltigeur, but Thrice was the only one that appealed to me at the prices when I looked at the race. Like last season, he has improved with every run and his last effort, including a stumble, was a big improvement. As this course can produce shock results and really suit some horses, but not others, he could be one to take advantage of any blowouts and cause a big upset. Dylan Browne McGonagle is an interesting booking, given his 4 timer as recently as last weekend. So, along with your “recommendation”, I’m talking myself into a small wager.
 
York 4.10 - Maghlaak 28/1, 4 places. Only 1pt off the top on my figures for the race so if it can run to its best form that looks generous (and I don't trust one of the two jt-top horses).
 
That was the first one I picked out for this too, but a), he disappointed/cost me when pipped over hurdles in his penultimate run at Market Rasen (his hurdle mark was only 113 at the time), b) hasn’t proved he stays 2m on the flat and c) I’m going to give Align the Stars one last chance.

Maghlaak is now out to 33/1and I agree that is worth a small bet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 3.00 - I don't think Thrice should be anywhere near the big odds going for this. It's possible it's just out for a canter round with DBMcM seemingly the fourth-choice jockey with maybe something else down the line the main target but I have it second-top rated, ORs have it third-top and RPRs also have it second-top. I've taken 66/1 (ew, 2 pl) and 20/1 (ew 2pl, without Lambourn). Couldn't find anyone going three places.
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Thrice is best price 22/1 at present, so your wagers are looking quite attractive now.
 
1.50 - Marty Hopkirk 40/1, 5 places. One of my shortlist for the race so I'm surprised it's this kind of price. Nothing ventured etc.
 

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