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What are you backing Today? Part 2

Golden Rules - 8.45 Kempton 8/1 Ew

I got the 8/1 last night and that was very good value, I think.

A course winner, he ran a nice comeback run in a fast-run c/d event in March and has had one unsuccessful run since. He's below his LWR, a C/D winner and I'm hoping this front - runner will get an easy lead here.

Jockey Havelin shows +£63.62 riding for the trainer.

Worth a shout.

:)
 
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Apart from reading forum contributions I only really had a quick look at Windsor, clearly getting lazier and sloppier in my older age. The 'sporting yankee' I put on didn't yield any profit, but I did fancy Auld Toon Loon so whacked on a win single and was chuffed to see him win at those odds. Even in the final furlong I questioned whether he would get up, but he did and that was very nice to see indeed.

I played football from 7pm to 8pm, so didn't know the result until I watched the replay at home. As I say, more things go wrong than right for myself where horses are concerned, but things have picked up recently.

I had a look for tomorrow and it's a very sub par day of racing quality-wise for a Friday. But still, an each way patent as follows.

Epson 4.50 I've got George Baker down as a bit of a shrewdie for getting horses to turn their form around. He sends a few over to Bahrain to get beat out of sight and then they pop up at some point over here at tasty odds.

A bit like the turnaround by Tom Dascombe today with Auld Toon Loon. He has Danger Alert in this race, who has dropped again a few pounds in the handicap, dropped down to class five level, and has the lady, (I think she identifies as that), that was mentioned on the other thread earlier as a very good rider, Nicola Currie, doing the steering. I'll speculate on this one at biggish odds.

Thirsk 6.35 Hover In The Wind is my selection, in what should be a very winnable race for this horse. He has some back form at Yarmouth, where he beat a horse in second who is now rated 85, so all in all, 73 looks a very nice rating to take advantage of here.

This fella likes to make all and will try and blow them away from the front, and at 5/1 or thereabouts, (with the betting markets as volatile as they are these days, he could start bigger you know, so I'll wait for Best Odds Guaranteed), he may just do so from the get go tomorrow.

Newmarket 7.00 Dutch Decoy has all the back form in the world at Newmarket and can go close to winning again. 6/1 or thereabouts is fair enough, and like I said before, on a weak day quality wise for Friday, he'll do for my third selection.

The early odds on these three are 16s, 5s and 6s, so this will be an each way punt on the patent and an each way treble to boot. I'll wait until tomorrow morning for Best Odds Guaranteed.

I'll settle for any type of profit. If all three place, I really wouldn't complain tomorrow.
 
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A very unsatisfactory outcome with my first horse Danger Alert missing the start by about 10 lengths.

I saw one of the stall handlers messing about with something under his belle before the off, I just wonder what he did, as it obviously didn't help.

Nevermind.
 
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It's all the f's for me tomorrow
Faustus 2.25 Newbury 11/1
Twice a c/d winner
First Folio 3.20 Ripon 11/1
Looks fairly handicapped and has an each way chance in an open looking race.
 
Might And Power said:
Have only backed the one today - 5.20 Newbury Mythical Composer , 7/2 best now and a tad lower generally...... looks a less demanding race than some of his earlier contests, and should be suited to this trip on the flatter track. Will be disappointed if he doesn't run close today.
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Ran verry well, but beaten by one given an excellent ride from the front by Saffie Osborne.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
York 2.10 I fancy the old age pensioner of the field Documenting to run well again. He won over course and distance at York in 2020 off a mark of 95 and he's on 86 now. He has a better strike rate on the all weather but can also perform on turf on a going day.
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Documenting is worth another go in Newbury's 3.00.

Today was a nightmare for myself.

Tomorrow looks interesting for trying to solve. It might take some solving though.

Good luck to all forum members if having a bet.
 
I backed Shimmering Sands (5.25 Doncaster) at 14/1 last night. Noticed he was 16/1 this morning but now 10/1.

Hasn’t reproduced last seasons decent and consistent form yet, but off this reduced mark should be able to go close. Roger Varian has a short priced favourite and possible improver in this, who could be a big danger, but that stable is struggling for winners at the moment (though did have a winner at Thirsk yesterday).

One interesting factor about Shimmering Sands is that since June 23 he had worn a tongue tie (often combined with a hood) in 12 consecutive runs. It wasn’t worn for his 3 runs this season, but goes back on today.
 
Sensorium (2.05 Newmarket) is my main hope for today.

Dylan Cunha had a high opinion of this horse and aimed quite high with him as a 2yo, running in the Windsor Castle second time out and the big York Sales race (where he ran well in 3rd behind Diligently and Arizona Blaze). He has has only run once since then, when disappointing on soft ground 3 weeks ago. In time, I think he will be much better than the 79 rating he runs off today.

I thought it was an interesting David Egan was jocked up for this early in the week. I like the trainer. He’s ambitious and always looking to promote himself and his stable. Although it’s only a £10k race, because it’s the “Grey Horse” race, the profile of it may well appeal to him as a good target. It was 28/1 on Thursday, came in to about 11/1 last night, but now back out to 16/1. Not sure what that means!

Grenham Bay, 3rd in this last season, is my backup at 22/1.
 
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If a 100/1 shot is ever going to go in it would surely be from a source like Tamar Bridge (Perth 5.05). Doesn't look like this trainers ever had a winner but a horse who's hurdle record is 4 in 9, has won this year and placed in a class 2 in October all contribute to making this price seem ridiculous. Last time out at Cartmel, Charlotte Jones had 5 rides winning two and runner up in three.

Also have the much more modest Harel Du Marais at 11/4 Market Rasen 6.23
 

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