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The 2025 International Stakes

Time for a flippant flight of fancy - it's August, this heatwave "Scorchio" summer has given way to storms, the Knavesmire, which sits on a glacial plate (or something, I was told but my attention span isn't all that when things get academic) has reverted to the utter kip recovered marshland that leaves bookies struggling to carry their bulging satchels back to the car park after sets of results the late William Hill could only dream of.

Sussex Stakes winner Field Of Gold ain't staying 10.5f in the proverbial horsebox on that.

Delacroix (or "Del Boy" the "Dude" to his besotted fan club, who are having t-shirts printed as we speak) might swerve the race altogether - he's already won his Group 1 at the trip.

Calandagan is a ponce (source: Slim).

Ombudsman needs it like a road and will hate the ground the most in the entire field.

So who will win it?

Well, Ballydoyle, obviously, they don't let Group 1s at this trip go begging.

Enter Lambourn, fresh from his King George triumph, evoking memories of Galileo.

But being an intelligent animal, Lambourn has instead been reading a book about Troy (the horse, not the place Brad Pitt minced his way round on a chariot while doing the worst impression of Achilles in living memory) who went to York and emerged triumphant after winning at Epsom, The Curragh and Ascot.

This is Lambourn's big chance to secure his future as a Flat stallion (rather than actually damage his stud value and end up siring Sedgefield winners by going to Doncaster - they've got Scandinavia for the Town Moor gig now).

Ryan Moore sets the fractions and in that ground Lambourn's got them all in trouble two furlongs out and he's the only one still capable of forward motion by the furlong pole.

The 25/1 tonight might look rather good at that juncture.

Or it will be a road, Lambourn won't even run and the grey will get home and win to squeals of "The New Frankel!" from the My Little Pony brigade. 😂
 
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My fear is that Ombudsman may now not only miss the INTERNATIONAL STAKES (I'm banning use of the sponsor's name on this thread, but have zero confidence the ban will be complied with), but be retired from racing altogether.

Not to go to stud, but to sort out Britain's water companies.

Apologies, I'll fetch me coat.
 
Pacemaker alert.

Not content with making a nuisance of myself here, I've been making a nuisance of myself about it on the RP Facebook page too - I'm EVERYWHERE.
 
There's been a cracking pattern this year.

French horse with Soft ground form gets put up by the RP, usually Pricewise, who boldly states it's been crying out for quick ground all its life (and yet connections have been happy to race it in Gallic mud for years) and it comes over and, err, gets beat.

Map Of Stars, Candelari, others I cba to look up to remember.

As night follows day, Le Choice Du Smart Pour Les Cognoscenti will be Daryz.

Never mind it having a stone plus to find on all known form, it's unbeaten and it's gonna just love the ground at York!
 
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Ian_Davies said:
There's been a cracking pattern this year.

French horse with Soft ground form gets put up by the RP, usually Pricewise, who boldly states it's been crying out for quick ground all its life (and yet connections have been happy to race it in Gallic mud for years) and it comes over and, err, gets beat.

Map Of Stars, Candelari, others I cba to look up to remember.

As night follows day, Le Choice Du Smart Pour Les Cognoscenti will be Daryz.

Never mind it having a stone plus to find on all known form, it's unbeaten and it's gonna just love the ground at York!
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French horses are so f$%^ing overrated. The Japanese horse this week is no different. It has absolutely no chance in the Juddmonte.
 
International
Birr Castle | Robert Havlin
Danon Decile | Keita Tosaki
Ombudsman | William Buick
See The Fire | Oisin Murphy
Daryz | Mickael Barzalona
Delacroix | Ryan Moore
 
As it stands, I think the ground will be pretty quick on the round course.

I think the ground, pacemaker and the extra 110yds at York will suit Ombudsman, but Delacroix showed some turn of foot in the Eclipse and, unless they can get him "at it" - and flat to the boards - some way from home, Delacroix might cut them all down again.

I love my sushi, but I can't have Danon Decile, not least because Meydan form doesn't always work out over here.

See The Fire will like the better ground than at Goodwood and might outrun her odds, while Daryz will probably be the pseudo intellectual RP choice as they've tipped 257 French horses in Group races so far this year and not one of them has made the frame - if these Gallic beasts really had been crying out for fast ground all their lives they'd be trained some place else.

And if Birr Castle does a Qirat I'll just laugh.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
while Daryz will probably be the pseudo intellectual RP choice as they've tipped 257 French horses in Group races so far this year and not one of them has made the frame - if these Gallic beasts really had been crying out for fast ground all their lives they'd be trained some place else.
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Calandagan (best horse in training imo unless Ombudsman and/or Delacroix take his crown in this) somewhat refutes this.

I'm balls deep in Ombudsman, have him in half a dozen rollovers and was getting excited when it looked like he might face a Ballydoyle Whirl challenge rather than a Delacroix one. Still confident, moderately scared of Daryz but not the Jap horse, his Calandagan formline is very false given the ride the French horse got that day in the desert.
 
Can' have Obusdman ,at all.
The way he pressed the pace early in the Eclipse suggests connections know he lacks acceleration,and Delacroix did him for speed,despite the earlier stumble which cost him a few lrengths ccncession.
 
That's fair but over the extended 10f do you need acceleration? It's a grinder type race, not a turn of foot one. Singspiel beat Bosra Sham in it, Postponed and Australia won decent renewals.
 
I've spent most of 2025 hearing and reading (mostly from Maurice) how this is a less-than-vintage year with many G1 winners hovering around OR 120 at best.

I've also read how we have the worst bunch of "top-flight" jockeys in a generation and how they're not fit to lace the boots of Lester Piggott or Steve Cauthen in terms of judgement of pace.

At Goodwood, a pacemaking rag rated OR 102 going into the race made all.

Tomorrow a 5yo who was once within a length of Ace Impact and has an OR of 109 may well get a soft lead.

Would YOU want to lay 160 on the machine about Birr Castle doing a Qirat?

Because if you're betting against it, you're not backing a Frankel or a Sea The Stars, that's for sure.
 
The Juddmonte looks a straightforward battle between the 2 best pace judges in our racing (imo) and I reckon RM's mount holds all the aces,having beaten his rival in adverse circumstances latest., so 15/8 for the win and 7/2 for the f/c is the way I've played it.
 
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I know people are pretty hard against this Japanese raider but they've sent over some cracking horses down the years but unfortunately in most cases elected to use their own jockeys rather than tag in a European jockey. From the likes of El condor pasa and Orfevre both getting nutted in the Arc to the likes of Harp Star who'd of won the Arc with just about any European jockey riding her. So they've sent over some good ones down the years.

Admittedly someone mentioned Meydan form not usually holding up elsewhere which is a fair point. I think Euro has made the point that Danon is flattered by beating Clandagan who is probably the European standard bearer. However, the formlines from Meydan and Ascot with Clandagan and Rebels romance aren't that far removed Ascot was run at a muddling pace which doesn't help. If anything Rebels romance had the run of the race over in Meydan and was luck less in his run over here but either way there isnt that much between them and there are both Top class horses. Danon beat them fairly easy that day. What was more impressive to me was the way he travelled he was fairly keen suggesting that this drop back in trip at a place like York could really suit despite him not looking that great at this trip as a 3yo.

If people are prepared to put Kalpana up as an Arc favourite for finishing close to Clandagan and having the benefit of first run it makes no sense to me to be dismissive of Danon Decile its quite possible he could be a superstar. I think he's the principle threat to Delacroix so I've talked myself into having a few quid reverse exacta on the pair. I see only a couple of bookies have him pencilled in for the Arc im thinking he'd have to be supplemented if he wins this.

I say I can't see how Ombudsman reverses the form the Eclipse. Reasons being given by others are firm ground. Do you really think it'll be firm first day at York? Good at best i'd of said. And pacemaker ? One horse does not a paceth make ! When Ombudsman won at Ascot half the field went too quick and he sat off it, the race set up perfectly. You cant recreate that with one horse. Pacemaker goes to slow, useless. Pacemaker goes too fast and the other jockeys ignore him then its useless. Pacemaker gets fractions perfect and you're sat at the back of the field that's no advantage.

I think the only advantage of having a pacemaker for him is that he won't finish last ;).

Best of luck.
 
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reet hard said:
between the 2 best pace judges in our racing
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These being the two blokes who finished third and fourth on a French Guineas winner and a multiple G1 winner to a handicapper they'd allowed too much rope to at Goodwood.

And I seem to remember you being none too impressed by the ride Ryan Moore gave Los Angeles at Royal Ascot.

I would actually agree Moore and William Buick are two of the very best in the context of the jockeys around at present, but I wouldn't be banking on even them to get it right at short prices.

You OUGHT to be correct, for sure, but I'm not sure there's a lot of value in the prices.
 
Ian_Davies said:
These being the two blokes who finished third and fourth on a French Guineas winner and a multiple G1 winner to a handicapper they'd allowed too much rope to at Goodwood.

And I seem to remember you being none too impressed by the ride Ryan Moore gave Los Angeles at Royal Ascot.

I would actually agree Moore and William Buick are two of the very best in the context of the jockeys around at present, but I wouldn't be banking on even them to get it right at short prices.

You OUGHT to be correct, for sure, but I'm not sure there's a lot of value inStrange wor
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reet hard said:
Strange world where a laydown 7/2 forecast ain't value?
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Well, if it really is a "laydown" forecast then obviously it is value at 7/2 - and as stated on paper that should be the one-two - but for all the other reasons I stated I'm not sure it's quite as straightforward as that.

It's interesting you said you can't have Ombudsman at all and yet you've got him in a forecast bet - game of fine margins, I suppose, you can't have him to win but can have him to be runner up.
 

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