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The 2025 St Leger, Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Champion Stakes

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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Hampshire
Like my fellow Law graduate Kier Starmer (though he took a year longer to get his degree - possibly because he actually attended lectures, seminars and the library, while I was bunking off to go racing) I like to think I'm the listening self-elected Prime Minister of Talking Horses.

I've noted the discontent about the number of threads, so here's three Big-Race threads condensed into one in the admittedly extremely optimistic hope I can secure the votes of the malcontents at the next TH election, for which I'm currently a scandalous No Offers, with 1.01 requested in volume, to lose my deposit.

But enough of my trademark puerile badinage.

The Leger (no "D!) is a race where I've got 6/1 Scandinavia and I just hope he is Ballydoyle's No 1 for the race.

I've also got him in a mad double with Lambourn for the International Stakes, but The Derby and Irish Derby winner looks Voltigeur bound.

HOWEVER....note the entry for Lambourn in the Champion Stakes, my sixth sense tells me they are absolutely gagging to get that 1m2f Group 1 win into everyone's favourite boat and there could be a long odds bet to be had in that department if we get a storm or three on the run up to such a contest to turn it attritional.

It's all about flying a kite sometimes.

No strong view on the QEII as yet,

Anyway here's some entries and the Leger betting.

St Leger Entries
Al Wasl Storm
Arabian Force
Carmers
Daiquiri Bay
Furthur
Galveston
Lambourn
Lazy Griff
Minnie Hauk
Mount Kilimanjaro
Nightime Dancer
Pinhole
Pole Star
Puppet Master
Push The Limit
Qilin Queen
Rahiebb
Saratoga
Scandinavia
Shackleton
Stay True
Tarriance
Tennessee Stud
Thrice
Whirl
Wimbledon Hawkeye

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Entries
Alakazi
Carl Spackler
Cathedral
Checkandchallenge
Cicero's Gift
Dancing Gemini
Delacroix
Diego Velazquez
Docklands
Exactly
Expanded
Facteur Cheval
Fallen Angel
Field of Gold
Henri Matisse
Hotazhell
January
Lake Forest
Lead Artist
More Thunder
My Cloud
Never So Brave
Opera Ballo
Persica
Qirat
Quddwah
Rosallion
Royal Scotsman
Sallaal
Sardinian Warrior
Scorthy Champ
Seagulls Eleven
Skukuza
Tamfana
The Lion In Winter
Volterra
Whirl
Zabiari

Champion Stakes Entries
Almaqam
Almeric
Anmaat
Bedtime Story
Calandagan
Caviar Heights
Continuous
Daryz
Delacroix
Economics
Expanded
Fox Legacy
Friendly Soul
Gethin
Goliath
Henri Matisse
Jackknife
Lambourn
Los Angeles
Minnie Hauk
Mount Kilimanjaro
Nahraan
Ombudsman
Prague
Pride of Arras
Royal Champion
Royal Rhyme
Saddadd
See The Fire
Stanhope Gardens
Swagman
Tamfana
The Lion In Winter
Tornado Alert
Whirl
White Birch
Zahrann

Ante-Post St Leger: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger/winner
 
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I totally get why some punters might think Field Of Gold is a standout bet at 5/1 ante-post for this.

He still arguably has the best overall form among the entries and he started 1/3 for the Sussex Stakes for a reason.

But the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is in October and by then he will have been in training a long time.

He's been busy too - he's had an old school campaign, Craven, 2,000 Guineas, Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James's Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes.

He wouldn't be the first horse to be over the top by the autumn after a campaign like that.

Then there's the injury - I really don't like taking anything any trainer says on trust, what I can read in the form book and see in races with my own two eyes is fact and over the years I've seen relying on "trainerspeak" cost punters time and time again.

Field Of Gold has made a good recovery already after being found lame?

Yeah, right, of course he has - come on, what else is Gosden going to say?

If you don't buy a ticket, you can't win a prize so Gosden, like all trainers, will say whatever optimises the chances of connections allowing the horse in the trainer's care back on the racecourse, the only place where the trainer can make more money out of the horse by landing more prize money.

It's an intriguing one - and prices on Field Of Gold range from 3/1 to 5/1.
 
Think you can add to that the likelihood of soft to heavy ground conditions as an additional tick in the cons list.
 
I'm going to go out on a limb and against the grain and say I think the Whirl/Kalpana form is overated.

With 2 main points.

First if Kalpana was a proper grp1 Arc contender she wouldn't have been caught by Clandagan from the position she was in. She'd got first run off a slow pace. If you argue her best form is on softer ground but she was having no issue with the ground that day and I believe softer ground over 12F will only add to the fact she'll be even more vulnerable in the closing stages over any 12f Grp1.

Secondly I have no problems with Whirl being around top class but feel people feel more bold about her after her performance at Goodwood which to my mind was a nothing race. Soft lead in ground everything else wasn't comfortable on. See the fire is no world beater at the best of times. 10F over soft ground was never going to suit bedtime stories whos blew it's bolt on the way down to the start and gave Whirl half the track on the flag start.

I'm not sure how I'd bet that when the time comes but I'd be happy enough to try and take them both on under the right circumstances.

Whilst I can see the sense in those who've backed Kalpana for the Arc as I dare say she'll go off shorter than the price you'd have gotten but can't see her winning it for the life of me even given her turn of foot which comes in handy at Longchamp.
 
Danny said:
I'm going to go out on a limb and against the grain and say I think the Whirl/Kalpana form is overated.

With 2 main points.

First if Kalpana was a proper grp1 Arc contender she wouldn't have been caught by Clandagan from the position she was in. She'd got first run off a slow pace. If you argue her best form is on softer ground but she was having no issue with the ground that day and I believe softer ground over 12F will only add to the fact she'll be even more vulnerable in the closing stages over any 12f Grp1.

Secondly I have no problems with Whirl being around top class but feel people feel more bold about her after her performance at Goodwood which to my mind was a nothing race. Soft lead in ground everything else wasn't comfortable on. See the fire is no world beater at the best of times. 10F over soft ground was never going to suit bedtime stories whos blew it's bolt on the way down to the start and gave Whirl half the track on the flag start.

I'm not sure how I'd bet that when the time comes but I'd be happy enough to try and take them both on under the right circumstances.

Whilst I can see the sense in those who've backed Kalpana for the Arc as I dare say she'll go off shorter than the price you'd have gotten but can't see her winning it for the life of me even given her turn of foot which comes in handy at Longchamp.
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Minnie Hawk is the best filly of the three. There, I said it.
 
And are they better than the boys ?

Delacroix I certainly expect to be the horse who'll become the star in the latter stages of the season. Still not sure what to make of Lambourn.
 
Danny said:
And are they better than the boys ?

Delacroix I certainly expect to be the horse who'll become the star in the latter stages of the season. Still not sure what to make of Lambourn.
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Whisper this very softly, Minnie Hawk is the one to be on for the Arc.
 
I'm thinking of paving the way for a trip to Ascot for Champions Day. I've got no f$%*er to go with, so it'll be a billy no mates job it this happens. That doesn't bother me too much. I could stay in London and travel to the action on the Saturday. Am I barking mad? I don't go abroad very often. My idea of a good holiday is people watching at the races and having a bet...
 
I'm half an hour away from Ascot, but I gave the meeting the bullet after swerving scuffling drunks on Ascot High Street after racing a few years ago.

It will be a good card, but the people ruin it for me. 😂
 
Ian_Davies said:
I'm half an hour away from Ascot, but I gave the meeting the bullet after swerving scuffling drunks on Ascot High Street after racing a few years ago.

It will be a good card, but the people ruin it for me. 😂
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I can only apologise for that give me half a shandy and a couple of bad beats im going in swinging.
 
I blame myself - I was too tight to pay to park so I had to brave the High Street upon exit.

It was like a Tour of fecking duty. 😂
 
St Leger Acceptors
Arabian Force
Carmers
Furthur
Galveston
Lambourn
Lazy Griff
Rahiebb
Saratoga
Scandinavia
Shackleton
Stay True
Tarriance
Tennessee Stud
Thrice
Minnie Hauk
 
The five-day St Leger confirmations are today.

My current "Legfolio" is looking alright tbf - Scandinavia @ 6/1 and Carmers @ 10/1.

Just need to see their names in the list circa 2pm.
 
Shit field, boring.

ICS is much better naturally. Tough to see Delacroix getting beat but a few of the trainer's better 3yos are recently and at 7/1 Anmaat is worth an ew poke, how the Murtagh thing is shorter than him is beyond me.
 
Seven declared for the St Leger.

Carmers Billy Lee
Furthur Oisin Murphy
Lambourn Sean Levey
Rahiebb Ray Dawson
Scandinavia Tom Marquand
Stay True Mickael Barzalona
Tarriance Colin Keane
 
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I can't have Scandinavia beat in this - he's done absolutely nothing wrong.

Sean Leavey had first pick apparently, but might have felt he couldn't turn down a dual Derby winner.

I'm happy with my 6/1 ante-post (also on Carmers circa 10/1) and consider 2/1 fair.

I also think there are worse related-contingency form doubles than Scandinavia and Sunday's Irish St Leger contender Illinois (11/4) at around 10/1.

Sweet William has run decent races since Goodwood at York and today.
 
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Good luck with your bets Ian - I think I will just take a watching brief on the race but I would expect Scandinavia to win.
I cannot believe that it is 31 years ago that I managed to take 50/1 about Moonax to win the race who won at 40/1 but was actually 66/1 on the day.
Do you think we will ever see a St Leger winner at 33/1 or above in the future with the races current format and limited entries?
 

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