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The 2025 Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase

Ian_Davies said:
I think overall - and in the long term - that is undoubtedly true, but I can think of niche markets where the market was simply wrong.
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I can too. Qirat 150/1 SP in the Sussex Stakes was crazy, as was No Half Measures in the July Cup at 66/1. I was on both.

And they were only the industry SP's, not to mention Betfair trading prices.

I've always been in camp that if you fancy a horse enough, back it whatever the price, but clearly just adjust your stakes.

Seeing a big drift is always concerning though.
 
pawras said:
I've found that a small drift is ok but once it goes beyond a certain amount it's nearly always goodnight vienna and it's worth considering trading out to reduce the loss
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If you back a horse at 7/2 that goes off at 4/1, the result is broadly neutral but still worse than backing one that goes off at 10/3, and far worse than one that goes off at 11/4. The direction of the price matters far more than most punters realise.

We had access to a massive dataset covering every bet placed in retail and online at PP, and we could break it down by a drifters/shorteners metric. The trend blew my mind at first. Once you saw that data, it was impossible to feel comfortable backing drifters again.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I think overall - and in the long term - that is undoubtedly true, but I can think of niche markets where the market was simply wrong.

Like Premier Magic 200 on the machine for the Foxhunters' after it had crucified Law Of Gold at Garthorpe, or 130 Torquator Tasso for the Arc in once-in-a-generation terrible ground at Longchamp.

Those two won, obviously plenty don't, but there are times when there is stuff beyond the data the data models and the vast majority of the betting industry have access to.

Plenty say that's bollocks and on those occasions, I just got lucky - maybe so, but 50 years is a long time to be lucky, so I maintain there is a time and a place for both mantras.
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One off ancedotal tales don't change the maths. It's far better to give punters the facts.
 
Slim said:
One off ancedotal tales don't change the maths. It's far better to give punters the facts.
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No, and I said overall I agree - the maths is the maths.

But these were one-off anecdotal tales where proper profits were made (and not just by me) and there will be one-off occasions where it will happen again.

The market can't process data it doesn't have access to (or experience of replicated scenarios it can't gauge either).

I very rarely think "this is a case of 'the bigger the price, the bigger the bet'," but the mantra has stood me in good stead on isolated, stand-out, occasions over the years and it will never go in the bin.
 
Slim said:
If you back a horse at 7/2 that goes off at 4/1, the result is broadly neutral but still worse than backing one that goes off at 10/3, and far worse than one that goes off at 11/4. The direction of the price matters far more than most punters realise.

We had access to a massive dataset covering every bet placed in retail and online at PP, and we could break it down by a drifters/shorteners metric. The trend blew my mind at first. Once you saw that data, it was impossible to feel comfortable backing drifters again.
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Indeed I did something similar with several years of betfair data a long time ago.

After looking at the general view I narrowed it down to my bets
 
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Ian_Davies said:
I think overall - and in the long term - that is undoubtedly true, but I can think of niche markets where the market was simply wrong.

Like Premier Magic 200 on the machine for the Foxhunters' after it had crucified Law Of Gold at Garthorpe, or 130 Torquator Tasso for the Arc in once-in-a-generation terrible ground at Longchamp.

Those two won, obviously plenty don't, but there are times when there is stuff beyond the data the data models and the vast majority of the betting industry have access to.

Plenty say that's bollocks and on those occasions, I just got lucky - maybe so, but 50 years is a long time to be lucky, so I maintain there is a time and a place for both mantras.
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There's always outliers & exceptions to the stats but I'm thinking about the zoomed out view
 
pawras said:
There's always outliers & exceptions to the stats but I'm thinking about the zoomed out view
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Yeah, and I get that.

The data model punter knew there would be outliers like that, but overall he won millions so he didn't worry about those.

At the other end of the scale the best Point punter I know won absolute bombs on Premier Magic - and many other Pointers besides - and couldn't care less whether it was weak in the market or not.

I've learned from people with very contrasting approaches over the years - the only thing they had in common was they both consistently won a lot of money and both stayed under the radar.

They'd be as likely to accept a gig chatting shit about Cheltenham Festival ante-post betting being The Holy Grail in the Racing Post as I would be to cook Walsworth's breakfast!
 
Blimey! After all the esoteric SP and price chat, back to the Welsh National (my head's spinning after reading all that).

My 'Welshfolio' is:

Deafening Silence
Monbeg Genius
Collector's Item
Dom Of Mary
 
Ian_Davies said:
No, and I said overall I agree - the maths is the maths.

But these were one-off anecdotal tales where proper profits were made (and not just by me) and there will be one-off occasions where it will happen again.

The market can't process data it doesn't have access to (or experience of replicated scenarios it can't gauge either).

I very rarely think "this is a case of 'the bigger the price, the bigger the bet'," but the mantra has stood me in good stead on isolated, stand-out, occasions over the years and it will never go in the bin.
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That’s fine, but you can’t teach it. In the short term, you’ll only make punters more stupid by saying so. It’s completely results-oriented, and some of those winners may still have been bad bets.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Yeah, and I get that.

The data model punter knew there would be outliers like that, but overall he won millions so he didn't worry about those.

At the other end of the scale the best Point punter I know won absolute bombs on Premier Magic - and many other Pointers besides - and couldn't care less whether it was weak in the market or not.

I've learned from people with very contrasting approaches over the years - the only thing they had in common was they both consistently won a lot of money and both stayed under the radar.

They'd be as likely to accept a gig chatting shit about Cheltenham Festival ante-post betting being The Holy Grail in the Racing Post as I would be to cook Walsworth's breakfast!
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What annoys me about your reply is that it almost implies this logic only applies to some maths geek winning millions. It applies to every punter, big and small, and to every bet type. I sometimes think you overcomplicate simple truisms in betting for the sake of writing a self-indulgent essay.
 
Gonna watch the first couple of races before making a decision

Need to see how the ground is, Vango, O'Connell and Jubilee would't want it too quick

I'll probably end up forgiving Haiti's last run, if he's right- he wins
 
Slim said:
That’s fine, but you can’t teach it. In the short term, you’ll only make punters more stupid by saying so. It’s completely results-oriented, and some of those winners may still have been bad bets.
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I completely get what you're saying - have done throughout.

And if punters take from what I say that a drift is never anything to worry about, they've misunderstood, maths and history tells us it's nearly always a worry.
 
Slim said:
What annoys me about your reply is that it almost implies this logic only applies to some maths geek winning millions. It applies to every punter, big and small, and to every bet type. I sometimes think you overcomplicate simple truisms in betting for the sake of writing a self-indulgent essay.
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I'm sorry you're annoyed by it - that's not what I mean at all, nor was annoying anyone my intention.

I'm just sharing what I've learned and profited from over the years and which tbh I hardly ever read anywhere.

Self-indulgent essays don't put money in my pocket, nor does creating a lofty persona.

Just sharing what I've learned - people can heed it or dismiss it as they wish.
 
Back to the Welsh National. I love watching it, but like the Paddy Power Chase today, I don’t see it as a profitable betting race. Books price them soft with extra places, and you can end up with five bets on, just hoping to claw half your stake back at halfway. These are crapshoot races unless you’re a selection absolutely fired in on ratings. I wouldn’t play unless I was already tracking a horse I knew was well handicapped.

Do punters get sucked in too easily by 7/1 the field and extra places?
 
I pinpointed Mr Vango and Tanganyika for this race after the Midlands National in March. The ground may have gone against Mr Vango, but that could apply to a few of the others.

Mr Vango, Rock My Way, and O'Connell, plus a few small combination forecasts. Tanganyika for a tiny amount just in case it is an exception to current stable form.
 
I'm hugely respectful of RMW but have backed Uncle Bert and Haiti Couleurs against the field with some small sickness insurance on a couple of others.

I've also taken them in permed ew doubles with Buachaillbocht and Sa Majeste at Leopardstown (which is a fvcking mental race, by the way, and I'm probably being a wee bit mental in even getting involved in it but I can't help myself).
 

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