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The Official Constitution Hill Thread 2025/26

Whether he should run or not I think he'll be shorter than the 5/2 available NRNB right now if he does run.
(He's only 5/2 antepost with Nicky's bookmaker buddy and just a tick over 7/2 on the exchange - to small money obviously.)
 
Danny said:
My mind boggles at where the value is at 5/2 in a horse thats tailed off once and fell 3 times in his last 4 hurdle starts. 6% chance of falling my arse. Only gotta jump 10 hurdles ? he'd struggle to do that in 3 races.

I can't believe this is a serious discussion as a whole.
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Totally agree, Danny. Even if he clears the hurdles, he’s not winning.

Henderson saying that him and Buckley have to make their decision in the wider interests of racing, too. In that case, the horse should be nowhere near Cheltenham in two weeks’ time.
 
The first question connections should be asking is "Given recent evidence, is the horse highly likely to come back safe?"

Question 2: "How do I want to be remembered within racing?"

Reading between the lines, I think Nicky wants to go for it and Buckley doesn't. And I believe Buckley will prevail, as he should.
 
Who's told him that ? The last decent performance Con had was beating Lossie a couple of lengths on a track she'd of hated. He's hardly likely to have got better in the last 15 months. Lossie would probably be entitled to beat him at Cheltenham going on what has gone on since they last met and Lossie back on a more suitable track, that being the case and connections still aren't sure whether to run her in the Mares.
 
granger said:
To paraphrase Buckley

" I was told, if we don't run, it will be a hollow victory for who does win, as we are the best horse"
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Wasn’t last year, just because CH fell. Even when State Man fell - yes, the race fell apart - the hurdles still have to be jumped. And Constitution Hill struggles to jump them.
 
Tbh Granger that would be like taking pride in beating Muhammed Ali in a boxing match after he got Parkinsons.
 
Danny said:
My mind boggles at where the value is at 5/2 in a horse thats tailed off once and fell 3 times in his last 4 hurdle starts. 6% chance of falling my arse. Only gotta jump 10 hurdles ? he'd struggle to do that in 3 races.

I can't believe this is a serious discussion as a whole.
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I'd question your ability to price risk.
 
Tbh Slim I might be a tad unfair and it might be me misunderstanding what you're saying. If you are saying that there is a 6% chance of Constitution hill falling in the Champion hurdle if he runs and I'm right thinking that equates to around 15-16/1 and you think thats a price you'd lay on him falling at Cheltenham then I'd check if there is a gas leak in your house.

If I've misinterpreted that then its on me and I'm being harsh.
 
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When a horses jumping gets that bad they check if its gone blind that's usually a sign that he shouldnt be in a Champion hurdle.

How much more clear cut can a decision be?
 
Danny said:
Tbh Slim I might be a tad unfair and it might be me misunderstanding what you're saying. If you are saying that there is a 6% chance of Constitution hill falling in the Champion hurdle if he runs and I'm right thinking that equates to around 15-16/1 and you think thats a price you'd lay on him falling at Cheltenham then I'd check if there is a gas leak in your house.

If I've misinterpreted that then its on me and I'm being harsh.
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You're not misunderstanding. You simply have a different opinion of the risk involved than I do. Start with this question, what price is Constitution Hill to jump the first?
 
Posting off the bog seat at work I'd say id struggle to price it. In 3 runs where he's been running fast enough to be competitive he's cleared 15 hurdles total before falls. Would you want to back it at 1/10 ? The probability that he clears the first is probably higher than him clearing most of the others. The probability of him falling would certainly increase when pressure is applied or when travelling at the highest pace in the race.

Tbh thinking about it that would be about right on average that would make him 6/4 to complete which is about what I'd make it.
 
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I didnt say they did. What i said is a horse any horse is more likely to fall when under pressure that doesn't mean they dont fall when they are not.

Go lay your 15/1 about him falling on course and you won't be able to afford a bin afterwards.
 
I know Hendo has been schooling and schooling him and the jumps guru Yogi Breisner has been concentrating on both teaching the horse and the jockey. And he will have been doing all sorts of different exercises to teach balance and concentration. I took a pointer we once had that used to literally walk through a fence each race off to a showjumping friend and we did loads of pole work including placing a pole the other side of the jump so he had to expect to see that in place and hop over it too so it effectively concentrated his mind. Worked really well too.

But I still don't want to see them take the risk. I don't think they lose anything by saying, "Well we've tried everything we can but there is still something that bothers us and for that we are not prepared to take that risk. We potentially have a horse that could still enjoy his twilight years solely on the Flat and as he owes us nothing, then we think we should do the responsible thing for the horse and for racing in general."
 
Slim said:
No of his falls came while under pressure. Put your model in the f$%^ing bin and start again.
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Danny said:
Go lay your 15/1 about him falling on course and you won't be able to afford a bin afterwards.
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Two of my very favourite people on this forum seldom fail to entertain and they're in scintillating form this morning.

"Walsworth! More popcorn!"
 

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