Place Only Bets

walsworth

Journeyman
Joined
Jul 19, 2006
Messages
1,696
Location
North Herts
I have been experimenting with place only bets using the Exchanges, gave up with the Tote when it was bought by "slap head".

Never quite sure when to place the bets though. I'm only betting with minimum stakes as a hobby rather than seriously trying to make money.

I normally put a high offer in very early, sometimes overnight and then decrease until it reaches a price that I am happy take.
 
How do you decide on an acceptable price?

I sometimes take this kind of approach with outsiders if I fancy a short-priced favourite will win.

For the likes of a 20/1 shot, I'd want 3/1 (v normal quarter-odds) or 5/2 (1/5). Anything better is a bonus.

Where I'm not sure of the maths is in adjusting for a five-place market.
 
I've weaned myself off place only betting on betfair due to the shocking lack of liquidity and in running betting being as dead as a dodo.I will say this it is possible to find a decent bet in big field races at the major festivals but these are the exceptions to the rule.
I would say the maths behind pricing up the place market are basically trial and error unless you've been to Caltech.
 
On the subject of exchange betting I have been monitoring matched volumes on betfair since Irish Derby weekend.To give some historical context the 2003 Lockinge was the first horse race where a million was matched on betfair and at one point at least a million was matched on every daytime UK turf race.
On the Friday of Derby weekend at The Curragh there were 3 maidens with matched volumes of approximately €180K and a handicap with €75K matched.It was the last Friday of the month and the last working day of the month-virtually everyone on a salary was paid that day.
The question is are people fed up with betfair or is horse racing in terminal decline.
 
I'm always surprised at the number of people on this forum who use bookmakers rather than Betfair, but I solely bet win only for small stakes.
 
I would say the maths behind pricing up the place market are basically trial and error unless you've been to Caltech.

My approach is very basic.

EG, the horse is 20/1 and it's a 1/4 odds market, 3 places but I genuinely don't think it will actually win the race.

£1ew would cost £2 for a potential £6 return, ie 2/1, so I'd rather put £2 place-only at 3/1 or better.

1/5 odds market maybe 2/1 or better but I do tend to look to get as close to the full fraction price, so somewhere closer to 5s and 4s respectively would merit a bigger bet. (It does sometimes happen!)
 
TimeCourseNo.HorseTrainerFcst OddsReqd
18.00Kempton5Crafty Spirit (IRE)Cox, C G2.88p/o 1.85
19.15Killarney2Star Kissed (IRE)Lyons, G M5p/o 1.9
Both placed, WD

Whether or not you backed them I hope you keep a record to see what your % success rate is
 
My approach is very basic.

EG, the horse is 20/1 and it's a 1/4 odds market, 3 places but I genuinely don't think it will actually win the race.

£1ew would cost £2 for a potential £6 return, ie 2/1, so I'd rather put £2 place-only at 3/1 or better.

1/5 odds market maybe 2/1 or better but I do tend to look to get as close to the full fraction price, so somewhere closer to 5s and 4s respectively would merit a bigger bet. (It does sometimes happen!)
As I see it there is no direct correlation between the true odds of a horse winning and the true odds of a horse getting placed.
 
Looking at the racing tonight I couldn't understand why matched volumes on betfair were up by approximately 25%.Then I realised it was because the Euro's have finished.
 
Horse racing in decline? There's a thought.

There's so much doom and gloom at the moment, and much is justified.

Even going by this forum. The main what are you backing thread isn't as busy as it was in years gone by. I must be the only person under 40 in my area that even bets on a horse race.

I just wonder is the enthusiasm still there for posters that used to post a lot but don't anymore. I'm not just talking about one week at the Cheltenham Festival either.

It's the same when I pop in a bookies. There just aren't the same numbers taking an interest in racing anymore.

Maybe the real passionate punters are sat behind a computer screen. Maybe that's the truth of it.
 
As I see it there is no direct correlation between the true odds of a horse winning and the true odds of a horse getting placed.

I could believe that but assume the generally accepted fractions are a ball-park expression of it?

I often do check the place-only market (with bookies, as they tend to be much more generous than Betfair) via oddschecker since occasionally getting the price as the equivalent of the fractions (ie, getting, say, 5/1 place only about a 20/1 shot) makes me feel like I'm getting real value (whether I am or not :)).

At the big meetings sometimes the Tote place-only odds can be very generous about outsiders. I still remember getting 28/1 the place about a 33/1 shot the very first time I went racing at Hamilton 50 years ago. (The problem with the Tote is that even a modest bet can seriously affect the dividend. Once at Ayr there an odds-on shot, something like 1/3, showing 1/3 also for the place just as they were going in the stalls. I stuck a tenner on, pretty much all I had and thinking I was buying money, and it won but the place dividend was £1.10. I presumed my tenner did that since I got it on so late.)
 
Today's possible bets.
TimeCourseNo.HorseTrainerFcst OddsReqd
14.10Uttoxeter8Ogradys Hill (IRE)Derham, Harry3p/o 1.7
16.30Bath11Miss Gitana (IRE)Prescott, Sir Mark3x
17.50Killarney5Monasterboice (IRE)Meade, Noel6p/o 3.2
21.00Ffos Las2KissininthebackrowNewland, Dr R D P5.5p/o 2.2
 
4/4 today - WD

Many, many years ago the Northern trainer Arthur (W.A.) Stephenson used to say "little fish are sweet" :thumbsup:
 
4/4 today - WD

Many, many years ago the Northern trainer Arthur (W.A.) Stephenson used to say "little fish are sweet" :thumbsup:
Stephenson also once (in 1987) threatened to arrange to have me run over by a bus.

Sadly for the world, it seems he never bothered to stick to his word.

But that's another story.

Well done today, walsworth - you pro!
 
The year was, as stated, 1987 and I was Editor of the Racing & Football Outlook.

We had had a relaunch, a TV advertising campaign (I hired Ray "Robbie Box - Big Deal" Brooks to do the voiceover and he was brilliant) and we had an edgy "Off The Bit" gossip column I let the Deputy Editor run.

He had it on impeccable authority (an eye withess) that Stephenson and stable jockey Ridley Lamb had had a stand-up row at the yard about whether to take advantage of The Thinker's soon-to-rise handicap mark by running him in the Grand National before he was reassessed for his Cheltenham Gold Cup win (for which I had tipped him ante-post at 33/1 btw as while more talented I always believed odds-on Forgive N Forget was a lousy jumper who was as likely to root any fence as jump it cleanly).

So we ran the story.

My older northern correspondent was on the phone the day of publication, patronisingly telling me the story was wrong and advising me to print a retraction and apology.

I reminded him he wasn't there, my source was, he was being paid by my paper, not Stephenson, he worked for me, not the other way round, and I'd make my own decisions, thanks.

I also added Stephenson was welcome to phone, me but he'd get no change out of me,

He did and he didn't.

I refused to reveal my source but said I knew what had happened and instead of mouthing off he should crack on and sue if he thought he had a case but I was a Law graduate as well as a journalist and I was telling him straight he hadn't.

He's been told I was a kid so it wasn't the conversation he was expecting.

So at the end he called me a bastard and said I needed to be careful crossing roads as I might just get hit by a bus.

I did whimsically keep an eye out for a double decker marked Bishop Auckland that was clearly off its route as I crossed Farringdon Road in London the next week or two, but none materialised.

I take as I find and in my personal opinion, an opinion no one is obliged to share, the bloke was a tool and a bully.

True story.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top