Saturday 2nd November 2024.

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yorick

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If you can pick winners/ make a profit today, you'll be doing well. Still early enough in the season, isn't it.There's nothing I'd be doing today with any confidence. I've backed a win treble with some shorties:

Leaderinthepark - Ascot 1.30 6/4
Luccia - Wetherby 1.50 Evs
Bravemansgame - Wetherby 2.58 4/5
Win Treble

Then a little try on:

Fusain - Wetherby 1.15 11/1
Saint Segal - Ascot 2.05 5/1
Hello Judge - Ayr 2.29 5/1
Chianti Classico - Ascot 3.45
Ew L15

Of these, I shall do Fusain and Hello Judge for Ew singles, too.

Finally, with the Hennessey coming up before long, I'm looking at my notes from last term concerning Apple Away. This was my favourite chaser of the season and I did question why connections had decided to dodge some tempting Cheltenham handicaps. I had half a mind to wonder whether they might be saving her for a big handicap in her second season as a chaser. Well, they don't get much bigger than the Hennessey and she's in the ante-post lists at 16/1.

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Here's one note of several I made last term:

Apple Away Ayr 3/1 (won)

"Anyone who’s been reading my blog will know that I’ve been a big fan of this girl all season and was gutted to see her fall by the wayside at Cheltenham, after having forgone what I thought were great opportunities in two of the handicaps.

I know that there are those that reckon Mullins will wipe the floor with all contenders at this meeting but I’ll not be abandoning my lass here. If she does blow out, then I think we can look forward to some great handicap fun next term."

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Looking at the entries for the race, we see Bravemansgame at the top of the tree rated 166. I see he's running today but could still do Newbury in three week's time. If that was the case and he carried a top weight of 11-12Lbs, that would put Apple Away in on a remarkable 10-1. If Bravemansgame doesn't run, top weight would be raised 3lbs with Stage Star top. He's entered into the PP so if he, too, drops out then top weight would be Grey Dawning on 157, meaning AA would shoulder something like 10-10.

I think I'd be silly not to avail myself of the current 16's, which I did last night.
 
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It's a quiet day for me too, really just dipping my toes in the water for what is effectively, for me, the start of the jumps season.

Asc 2.05 - I’m going to risk leaving Frère d’Armes (top rated) out of the equation on account of the jockey. There’s a similar race here in a couple of weeks’ time and I won’t be surprised if Harry Skelton gets the ride then. It’s a very tight handicap for so early in the season and they almost all have the potential to be some way better than they are. I’m going to take a chance on a small win bet on Madara who went over to Leopardstown and tore a strong race apart at the DRF meeting before running well below form at the festival itself and is young enough to improve a lot.
Frere D'armes is probably the one to be on since I have finally decided to abandon him. To my mind, he just doesn't want to go past. As with most of mine, the day I give up on them is the day they win. I like Madara on his beating of Path d'Oroux ut I wonder if the ground might be a little too lively.

Asc 3.15 - I’m very keen on Rightsotom here. If it’s fit and trying I think it wins, possibly easily. The season before last it was running in G1s so was clearly highly thought of. It was rated 126 at the start of last season in Ireland and could reasonably have been expected to be off at least 132 had it been entered in a British handicap and, given how the Irish trainers campaign their hurdlers quietly in their formative years, there’s every chance it was always going to be a good 10lbs better anyway. I’ll save on Jour D’Evasion at a big price. It was 13/8 to beat a 130-rated horse at levels the time it pulled up so, again, must be thought better than 112.
Hardly ever touch novice hurdles so good luck, mate
Asc 3.45 - This is a good race. Amirite has long promised to be smart, having gone off favourite for the Irish National a couple of seasons back but has been largely underperforming since. Irish trainers have already started picking off our good prizes this season and I’ll be covering any other bets with this one. Kitty’s Light, surprisingly, is just the same age despite seemingly having been around for ever. He remains well handicapped and connections might be tempted to have a pop at the market at such long odds but the stable hasn’t hit form yet and the horse has doubled in price in the last 48 hours. I was hoping for better than 7/1 about Our Power given its disappointing form last season but Thomas is a very good trainer and the jockey looks like his go-to guy this season with a strike rate of 30% so he’s the main bet. OP is a non-runner so I've switched to HSP (backed 9/2, was 9/1 on Friday).
I have no idea but have stuck with Chianti Classico who was one of mine last season and may even have improvement to come in his second season. Wouldn't argue with you on your selection, mind.

Wth 2.22 (wtf) - I was going to settle for a small win bet on Kateira, not because I fancy it but because I can’t fancy the others, but the non-runners have made it too short. No bet.
Once again, NR's decimate our enjoyment and the racing bodies just ignore it and carry on as if nothing is happening. 5 NR's at the meeting, all citing 'going' as the reason. Does nobody care?

Wth 2.58 - I reckon if Bravemansgame turns up in form he’ll be very hard to beat and Conflated is the obvious danger so was just going to watch the race without a bet but the ITV7 pot will be doubles to £100k if BMG wins and that's enough to put me on to Conflated :ninja:.
One never knows, early season, what Mr Nicholls' horses will do but, as you write, if he's fit to go, he does look the winner
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Asc 2.05 - I’m going to take a chance on a small win bet on Madara who went over to Leopardstown and tore a strong race apart at the DRF meeting before running well below form at the festival itself and is young enough to improve a lot.
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I don't mind backing losers if they're trying but this one was never going to win from the first fence. Total non-trier. The annoying thing was that the other one I'd thought about backing was the winner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 3.15 - I’m very keen on Rightsotom here. If it’s fit and trying I think it wins, possibly easily.
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No idea about its fitness as I missed the build-up but it was another non-jigger, allowed to drift back from about halfway. (And to rub salt in the wound, my second bet in the race was nutted on the line while I'm still looking for the longshot I backed.)
 
Unlucky DO I think I need a new roof for my house after roaring Our Champ home there. Great ride by Freddie Gordon unfazed by Nico knocking his whip out of his hands
 
viking said:
Unlucky DO I think I need a new roof for my house after roaring Our Champ home there. Great ride by Freddie Gordon unfazed by Nico knocking his whip out of his hands
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The horse was trying and that's all I'll ever ask. IMS, I said on here I had backed Our Champ for the Betfair Hurdle earlier in the year so knew it was a decent tool. I've also said how much I rate the trainer when it comes to races he likes to target so pleased that a 'friend' manages to find the winner, especially, as I say, when I see mine is trying but just beaten by one better on the day. 'It's no loss what a friend gets,' as my mammy was wont to say.

And then HSP was also trying its heart out only to be denied by a really impressive front-running, weight-carrying performance by the winner. No complaints there either. Kitty's Light, on the other hand...
 
simmo said:
Started out the back, stayed out the back.
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Haha. 'The stewards enquired into the running of Madarar. The rider reported that Madarar started out the back and stayed out the back'. The stewards noted the jockey's comments.

I looked at the race again a couple of times, Des, and couldn't really disagree with Simmo's assessment, to be fair; it's all guesswork. I suppose we might say that he needed the run (didn't look like he was ready to go imo, and just looked 'stuffy' in his race). Then we might add that he could well need further. Trainer said after his Cheltenham 2m hurdle win last season:
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"Madara is a lovely young horse to have and he is very straightforward. He is just a joy really. We really felt after his last run that he needed further, and we were really keen to run in the December Gold Cup, but because of his four-year-old allowance Fakir D'oudairies put us so far out of the weights it just wasn't worthwhile. He ran well over a similar trip last time and we were happy enough to come again. He had a good pull in the weights, and I think the race panned out well as they went hard in front "- Sophie Leech, trainer.
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An interesting comment, this. Two things are mentioned: the horse needs further and then we see what might this one's target this season: that December Gold Cup at Cheltenham in Dec. We might further remark that the ground wasn't soft enough for him. After all, he's done all his winning of softer ground, unlike the good ground yesterday. In the December Gold Cup, his current mark might see him on around 10-8 to 10-10.

He would also get into the PP over 2m 4f so that's not out of the question, is it? 33's at present.
 
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Where did you pick up the stewards report, yo - or was it a joke? All that is on the BHA Stewards Reports is:

Race 3 - 2:05pm
THE BYRNE GROUP HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1) (PREMIER HANDICAP) (GBB RACE)

Permission was given for SAINT SEGAL (FR) to go early to post.

Following the race, P. Townend reported that UNCLE PHIL (IRE), placed sixth, slipped on take-off for the seventh fence and made a mistake jumping the fence. The Veterinary Officer reported that MALYSTIC, which was pulled up, had lost its right hind shoe and that MATTERHORN (FR), unplaced, had bled from the nose.
 
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