I think the NH season probably starts about now, doesn't it?
There's a lot of meat on the bone with lots to choose from and the standard of racing looks quite good, doesn't it? Having said that, I've been watching attentively so far and, to be honest, have very few notebook horses to go to war with so far. The good thing about NH, though, is that notebooks can be carried on into the next season, such is the nature of the sport. Indeed, when GA Law won the Paddy Power chase two years ago, he had been spotted in a previous year and I backed him that day, as if to illustrate my point.
The feature today is the Paddy Power handicap chase and, as ever, it's a trappy old thing. I suppose the most notable feature, when studying this, will be the going. The ground's bouncy enough, isn't it, and I have a feeling that this will be a major factor. Was it Phil Bull, the founder of Timeform, who said that there are two massive factors when backing horses: ground and distance?
So, apropos the above, my selection will be one that I've followed since his chase debut, has won on the ground, over the distance and looks capable of improving further still, being just a 6yo: In Excelsis Deo. That win at the back-end of last season was a cracking run. Have a look at the time and it really does look good in its own right let alone when compared to other races on the card that day. Given all that, he looks to be very good value for this at his current 10/1 . As I wrote above, I do have reservations about many in the race on account of the going.
There are those, I'm sure, who'd be looking to IED's defeat by Madara previously and might be convinced (especially after the no-try of Madara's last race) that this gives a massive chance to the latter. However, that win was achieved on soft ground over 2m and today's 2m4f on good might prove to be quite a different affair. It's possible, on breeding, that Madara might appreciate the step up in trip but the going is the problem here, I think.
If I was choose another one who might figure, I'd be looking at Straw Fan Jack, who has his ground, has run well on the course and looks too big a price at 40/1. A lovely race to study and I will be watching, on the lookout for the future, especially when the ground softens up somewhat.
I've teamed IED up with three more for a lucky 15 and if a single winner were to go in, it would be 'lucky' indeed.
Planned Paradise - Cheltenham 16/1 Ew
I pick this one on the strength of his last run over the course where he was patiently ridden and, in truth, got too far behind. His late work up the hill will have been missed by many and it looked like 3m or 3m+ is needed these days, given his sire is Westerner. I'd be fearing Strictlyadancer, a previous winner of this and on favourable terms with my selection.
Petit Tonerre - Cheltenham 1.45 8/1 Ew
I think he might have run into one last time out at Aintree and will be better for the outing and the experience.
In Excelsis Deo - 10/1 Ew
See above.
Mon Na Slieve - Newcastle 4.48 5/1 Ew
Here's an unusual: backing on the AW. I spotted this fellow running at Royal Ascot, where Jamie Spencer gave him a 'considerate' ride. This race is nowhere near that quality and even though he was last on his last run, I wouldn't let that bother me.
4 x Ew singles
Ew L15
Three shorties:
Hidalgo De L'Isle - Wetherby 12.27 11/4
Ajp Kingdom - Uttoxeter 1.20 7/4
Pay The piper - Wetherby 1.35 7/4
Win Treble
Also having little ew's on Strictlyadancer (1.10 Cheltenham) and Claymore (3.15 Newcastle)
There you go. I shall look forward to the racing and hope (some hope!) for a winner or two but really, so long as they give me a run, I shan't be broken hearted. If I manage to see any notebook horses when he day is done, then that's a winner in itself, eh?
There's a lot of meat on the bone with lots to choose from and the standard of racing looks quite good, doesn't it? Having said that, I've been watching attentively so far and, to be honest, have very few notebook horses to go to war with so far. The good thing about NH, though, is that notebooks can be carried on into the next season, such is the nature of the sport. Indeed, when GA Law won the Paddy Power chase two years ago, he had been spotted in a previous year and I backed him that day, as if to illustrate my point.
The feature today is the Paddy Power handicap chase and, as ever, it's a trappy old thing. I suppose the most notable feature, when studying this, will be the going. The ground's bouncy enough, isn't it, and I have a feeling that this will be a major factor. Was it Phil Bull, the founder of Timeform, who said that there are two massive factors when backing horses: ground and distance?
So, apropos the above, my selection will be one that I've followed since his chase debut, has won on the ground, over the distance and looks capable of improving further still, being just a 6yo: In Excelsis Deo. That win at the back-end of last season was a cracking run. Have a look at the time and it really does look good in its own right let alone when compared to other races on the card that day. Given all that, he looks to be very good value for this at his current 10/1 . As I wrote above, I do have reservations about many in the race on account of the going.
There are those, I'm sure, who'd be looking to IED's defeat by Madara previously and might be convinced (especially after the no-try of Madara's last race) that this gives a massive chance to the latter. However, that win was achieved on soft ground over 2m and today's 2m4f on good might prove to be quite a different affair. It's possible, on breeding, that Madara might appreciate the step up in trip but the going is the problem here, I think.
If I was choose another one who might figure, I'd be looking at Straw Fan Jack, who has his ground, has run well on the course and looks too big a price at 40/1. A lovely race to study and I will be watching, on the lookout for the future, especially when the ground softens up somewhat.
I've teamed IED up with three more for a lucky 15 and if a single winner were to go in, it would be 'lucky' indeed.
Planned Paradise - Cheltenham 16/1 Ew
I pick this one on the strength of his last run over the course where he was patiently ridden and, in truth, got too far behind. His late work up the hill will have been missed by many and it looked like 3m or 3m+ is needed these days, given his sire is Westerner. I'd be fearing Strictlyadancer, a previous winner of this and on favourable terms with my selection.
Petit Tonerre - Cheltenham 1.45 8/1 Ew
I think he might have run into one last time out at Aintree and will be better for the outing and the experience.
In Excelsis Deo - 10/1 Ew
See above.
Mon Na Slieve - Newcastle 4.48 5/1 Ew
Here's an unusual: backing on the AW. I spotted this fellow running at Royal Ascot, where Jamie Spencer gave him a 'considerate' ride. This race is nowhere near that quality and even though he was last on his last run, I wouldn't let that bother me.
4 x Ew singles
Ew L15
Three shorties:
Hidalgo De L'Isle - Wetherby 12.27 11/4
Ajp Kingdom - Uttoxeter 1.20 7/4
Pay The piper - Wetherby 1.35 7/4
Win Treble
Also having little ew's on Strictlyadancer (1.10 Cheltenham) and Claymore (3.15 Newcastle)
There you go. I shall look forward to the racing and hope (some hope!) for a winner or two but really, so long as they give me a run, I shan't be broken hearted. If I manage to see any notebook horses when he day is done, then that's a winner in itself, eh?