It seems to be a trend that the Venetia Williams’ stable doesn’t really fire in the season’s early stages. Come November and December, though, the winners begin to flow. This is her time of year, I think.
Thus far, her horses haven’t troubled the judges much but it surely can’t be long before she picks up momentum.
I notice she has a runner in the 3.00 at Warwick: bottom weight in a class five handicap. The mare, Lady Pretender, is a French import, which is always of interest to me with this stable. Lightly raced, she contested just four chases in France and it was while browsing these that I came across a run at Auteuil in June ’23. She finished second to none other than Sweet David who hosed up at Cheltenham last week in the X-country off a mark of 140. That win will, no doubt, earn him a mark of 146 (at least).
In the Auteuil race, LP was beaten 8L in receipt of 6Lbs. Baldly, we might rate LP to be 14Lbs inferior to Sweet David. That would give LP a rating of around 132.
So, we see Lady Pretender at the bottom of a class five handicap on a rating of 99. Now, I know that taking form literally can be a blunt tool but there are times when notice has to be taken. In this case, even with that in mind, there seems to be quite a bit of 'wiggle room' in our calculations.
On literal figures, we might expect Lady Pretender to win by twenty-five lengths. Ridiculous, of course, but in the fond world of literal form I might be tempted to recall Richard Baerlin heralding the world to back Shergar before the 1981 Derby: “Time to bet like men”, he declared. Well, that would take a braver man than me, for sure, but I have backed the mare Ew at 4/1. Given what evidence I’ve noticed, it looks like cracking value. It wouldn't be the best chase in the world, this, would it.
Under cross-examination, I would have to concede that the Auteuil run was eighteen moths ago, Sweet David's win was in a X-country race and cannot be equated reliably with other NH chases, Venetia has not had a winner in ten races.
Lady Pretender - Warwick 3.00 4/1 Ew
Thus far, her horses haven’t troubled the judges much but it surely can’t be long before she picks up momentum.
I notice she has a runner in the 3.00 at Warwick: bottom weight in a class five handicap. The mare, Lady Pretender, is a French import, which is always of interest to me with this stable. Lightly raced, she contested just four chases in France and it was while browsing these that I came across a run at Auteuil in June ’23. She finished second to none other than Sweet David who hosed up at Cheltenham last week in the X-country off a mark of 140. That win will, no doubt, earn him a mark of 146 (at least).
In the Auteuil race, LP was beaten 8L in receipt of 6Lbs. Baldly, we might rate LP to be 14Lbs inferior to Sweet David. That would give LP a rating of around 132.
So, we see Lady Pretender at the bottom of a class five handicap on a rating of 99. Now, I know that taking form literally can be a blunt tool but there are times when notice has to be taken. In this case, even with that in mind, there seems to be quite a bit of 'wiggle room' in our calculations.
On literal figures, we might expect Lady Pretender to win by twenty-five lengths. Ridiculous, of course, but in the fond world of literal form I might be tempted to recall Richard Baerlin heralding the world to back Shergar before the 1981 Derby: “Time to bet like men”, he declared. Well, that would take a braver man than me, for sure, but I have backed the mare Ew at 4/1. Given what evidence I’ve noticed, it looks like cracking value. It wouldn't be the best chase in the world, this, would it.
Under cross-examination, I would have to concede that the Auteuil run was eighteen moths ago, Sweet David's win was in a X-country race and cannot be equated reliably with other NH chases, Venetia has not had a winner in ten races.
Lady Pretender - Warwick 3.00 4/1 Ew
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