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The 2025 Irish Grand National (Extended Handicap Chase)

Johnnywho would also have a chance if sent here instead of to Ayr.

There's a few in this of potential interest, but I'd need a better idea of who the top weight will be, and how much, if at all, the weights will rise before forming a strong opinion.
 
I've taken a wee nibble at 66/1 about Lord Lariat who did me a favour when he won it three years ago. He's been lightly raced since and obviously has had his issues as he missed all of last season but he's back down close to that winning mark. I'm assuming the topweight GN horses won't run and that the weights will go up (although I wouldn't put it past Mullins to leave one in in order to force some out of the weights) and a smart claimer could see it run off a winnable mark.

I'm also half-expecting that it won't make it to the race since it has had issues but the trainer won it the following year with 150/1 Freewheelin' Dylan so he clearly likes to target the race and this is his only entry.
 
I've taken a wee nibble at 66/1 about Lord Lariat who did me a favour when he won it three years ago. He's been lightly raced since and obviously has had his issues as he missed all of last season but he's back down close to that winning mark. I'm assuming the topweight GN horses won't run and that the weights will go up (although I wouldn't put it past Mullins to leave one in in order to force some out of the weights) and a smart claimer could see it run off a winnable mark.

I'm also half-expecting that it won't make it to the race since it has had issues but the trainer won it the following year with 150/1 Freewheelin' Dylan so he clearly likes to target the race and this is his only entry.

Lord Lariat is still in at today's confirmation stage, the top wights have come out, he is guaranteed a place if he remains in the race and he will be very comfortably in the handicap proper. Still 66s and I'm tempted to go in again.

Edit - it had gone blue in a few places so I've gone in again.
 
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  1. Better Days Ahead Rob James (7)
  2. Quai De Bourbon tbc
  3. Johnnywho tbc
  4. Bioluminescence Keith Donoghue
  5. Harry Des Ongrais Rachael Blackmore
  6. Duffle Coat Alex Harvey (5)
  7. Favori De Champdou Danny Gilligan
  8. Search For Glory Sam Ewing
  9. Sequestered Jack Gilligan (5)
  10. Desertmore House JJ Slevin
  11. Malina Girl Sean Flanagan
  12. Panda Boy Ricky Doyle
  13. Yeah Man Kieren Buckley
  14. Haiti Couleurs Sean Bowen
  15. Now Is The Hour Conor Stone-Walsh (3)
  16. Shecouldbeanything Jordan Gainford
  17. Sa Majeste Simon Torrens
  18. Any Second Now Mark Walsh
  19. Lord Lariat Paddy O'Hanlon
  20. Stuzzikini Gearoid Brouder (3)
  21. Tullybeg TP Harney (7)
  22. Daily Present Aidan Kelly (5)
  23. Mint Boy Kevin Sexton
  24. Dunboyne Donagh Meyler
  25. Final Orders PM O'Brien (7)
  26. Kinturk Kalanisi Darragh O'Keeffe
  27. Bushmans Pass Philip Enright
  28. Moonovercloon tbc
  29. Hasthing tbc
  30. Noble Birth D King
Final field, betting link when I see one.

Today's Fairyhouse card there abandoned and tomorrow in doubt.
 
It looks a typically-open contest to me and progressive types like Now Is The Hour and Johnnywho may well go well.

But the one I like is Kinturk Kalanisi.

Progressive young novice chasers have a good record in this and the 7yo finished in front of subsequent Scottish National winner Captain Cody and Now Is The Hour (6lb worse off here) at Navan in January and was travelling well when unseating 7lb claimer Anna McGuiness two out in the Leinster National at Naas last time out.

A more experienced jockey sans claim might be a net positive on this occasion and both the pedigree and style of racing offer hope at the trip.

12/1 isn't a terribly exciting price for a race of this nature, but it might offer a slither of value and there are extended places (seven with SkyBet) to be had whichever way you look.
 
I'd say Final Orders might be big at 50/1, but he seems like a Good-ground horse to me.

I've just done my first trawl and this is the one that struck me too. I managed to get 33s a moment ago. Shorter generally.

I haven't checked the going requirements but at those odds I don't want to let anything put me off it.

I'll do a wee bit more work this evening. Got people in for the day.
 
Yeah, I took the view I can't expect "jam on it" (every box ticked) at 50/1 so, as it "doesn't cost much to find out" at those prices, he's my other bet along with Kinturk Kalanisi in the race thus far.
 
Final Orders is an amazing horse and definitely worthy of consideration, as is Kinturk Kalanisi, but I’m most interested in a couple of outsiders.

Main choice is Search for Glory 33/1, who has kept good company since novice days and may have improvement over this longer trip. Quite lightly campaigned this season, presumably with this in mind. Might be the best of Gordon Elliott’s and that should mean he isn’t far away.

For a big outsider, Moonovercloon, is not a no-hoper at 100/1. Sent off favourite in his last 2 chases (both decent handicaps) under a claimer. Beaten nose in first of these and UR in other. All 6 chase runs have been decent and if longer trip suits under Ben Harvey, he could run well.
 
I've just done my first trawl and this is the one that struck me too. I managed to get 33s a moment ago. Shorter generally.

I haven't checked the going requirements but at those odds I don't want to let anything put me off it.

I'll do a wee bit more work this evening. Got people in for the day.
Gavin Cromwell said that Final Orders wouldn't want the ground to get too soft. There's a lengthy and informative piece headed " Connections talk about Irish National contenders " on Irishracing.com on April 17th.
One that will like it is Now Is The Hour ( 6/1) who handled the heavy ground at Haydock in a 3 miles Grade 2 novice hurdle much better than Haiti Couleurs ( 4th, beaten 60l ) in February 2024. He was raised 14lbs for finishing too close to Three Card Brag at Navan in January, and then another 2lbs for falling two out in the National Hunt Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Will Do (20/1), trained by Gordon Elliott, sneaks into the race as the second reserve, and he finished third in the race mentioned above at Cheltenham when jumping left which will be a disadvantage here. He's been running in some top races - 5th when 5/1f for the Paddy Power Chase and then 6th in the Thyestes.
 
Will Do (20/1), trained by Gordon Elliott, sneaks into the race as the second reserve, and he finished third in the race mentioned above at Cheltenham when jumping left which will be a disadvantage here. He's been running in some top races - 5th when 5/1f for the Paddy Power Chase and then 6th in the Thyestes.
Interesting that one of the non-runners, allowing Will Do a run, was an Elliott horse.
 
Doing this over two screenshots:

1745222085217.png

1745222150020.png

I took 66/1 Lord Lariat when the weights came out but he might actually need to be better now than when he won it for us three years ago. This looks a hotter race. I also did Final Orders (33/1) when I did my first trawl the other day but now I think a place is the best that one can do. McManus looks to have a very strong hand. Mark Walsh has opted for Any Second Now and he will now be my main bet for that reason as he’s very well in on last year’s form. I’m not going to let his age put me off. I think he’s been trained all year for it. Keith Donoghue has picked Bioluminescence from Cromwell’s runners so expect a very big run from her as they’ve limited her to just the minimum-allowed three chases in this her first season over fences so she’s probably much better than we’ve seen.

Kinturk Kalanisi would, I think, have won last time. The jockey hadn’t asked him a question as they came to take up the running two out, so he’s a bet too since I do like first-season novices in this race. Sequestered is a huge price if my figure for him is correct. Sam Ewing has opted for Search For Glory over the other Elliott runners so he’s a bet.

This group against the field will do me. I just hope the ground doesn’t spoil it as a race.
 
McManus looks to have a very strong hand. Mark Walsh has opted for Any Second Now and he will now be my main bet for that reason as he’s very well in on last year’s form. I’m not going to let his age put me off. I think he’s been trained all year for it.

I was getting quite interested in the race for a while there but the old warrior has run an absolute blinder to beat the rest of a very strong field and retires with great honour.

I tend not to get too attached to too many horses these days but I really wanted him to do it today as I've backed him in Gold Cups and Grand Nationals and he has never let me down. He was my main bet and I had enough on him for the place return to cover all my bets so I have no complaints. The winner is a serious improver.
 
It will be very interesting to see how the UK handicapper reacts to this result.

Will he go conservative on account of the ground and the fact that a seemingly in-decline 13yo was able to run second?

(I hope so.)

I've had a very superficial look at the finishers and my gut is telling me that my pre-race belief that this was a cracking renewal was not at all far off the mark.

If my final take on the race next week bears that out again and the handicapper does go conservative for the above reasons then I would say it might not be a bad idea to have the winner onside ante-post for next year's Aintree showpiece. I would half-anticipate a light campaign mainly over hurdles with maybe one chase to get it qualified for the race. If it goes up to about 147/148 I would have to be quite hard on myself to prevent me from saying it will win. (Personally, I would run it down the park a couple of times in Pertemps qualifiers to get it back under the radar and maybe get the price out a bit.)

It won't win the Gold Cup, not next season anyway, but it could be up to running with credit in it.

The other one to take from the race is Quai De Bourbon who effectively lost his chance three or four out when looking very dangerous. He was off 148 and will probably be off 150 in the UK handicap but he is another first-season novice entitled to be another 10lbs better next season and could be another serious contender.
 
I've managed to watch the whole race again and I have to say the winner was even more impressive than I remembered. I don't think he touched a fence on the way round, measuring just about every one absolutely spot on.

There's an item at the RP site but it's behind a paywall:

I've compiled sectional times for 25 years - and I can confidently say no-one I've seen reads races better than Sean Bowen

Is that in today's paper? If not it will be in tomorrow's and if so I'll stop in at some point and read it but it seems Mark Holder is impressed with Sean Bowen.
 
I've managed to watch the whole race again and I have to say the winner was even more impressive than I remembered. I don't think he touched a fence on the way round, measuring just about every one absolutely spot on.

There's an item at the RP site but it's behind a paywall:

I've compiled sectional times for 25 years - and I can confidently say no-one I've seen reads races better than Sean Bowen

Is that in today's paper? If not it will be in tomorrow's and if so I'll stop in at some point and read it but it seems Mark Holder is impressed with Sean Bowen.
Is Sean Bowen the best jump jockey ever to come out of Britain?

It’s a bold question, but the way he has ridden this season makes it one impossible to ignore. Bowen has shown a guile and composure that few, if any, can match. Yes, Sir AP McCoy holds all the records – and probably always will, given no-one is ever likely to rival his relentless drive or legendary toughness. But Bowen seems to combine many of McCoy’s traits with a cooler, more laid-back exterior. That’s not to say he isn’t just as focused.

Harry Cobden, in a recent interview for the Racing Post, said he couldn’t believe Bowen would go out and ride a 250-1 shot in a novice hurdle. “If Sam Stronge booked me for a horse like that,” he joked, “I’d call him up and have a fit.” That tells you everything about Bowen’s appetite for the game.

Work ethic is vital, of course – and Bowen’s is immense – but what really sets him apart is his feel for pace. I have been sectionally timing British jump races for more than 25 years, and I can say with confidence that no-one I’ve seen reads a race better. Cobden and Brian Hughes are close, no doubt, but Bowen might just have the edge. And this comes at a time where I have little doubt the overall quality of our jump jockeys has never been better.

In any comparisons with McCoy, Bowen’s quieter style might actually cost him. There was never any doubt when watching AP that his pure strength set him apart from his colleagues. While Bowen wins many races others would lose, it’s not always obvious why unless you’re viewing the races with a stopwatch in hand.

2024/2025 Champion jockey Sean Bowen , pictured riding out for Nick Scholfield near Bath

Sean Bowen: "I’d struggle to name a better jockey to have come out of Britain"Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)
Last Thursday, while much of the sport’s attention was fixed on Cheltenham and Newmarket, Bowen quietly landed a near 200-1 five-timer at Ffos Las, demonstrating a different skill set in every ride. The standout for me was Harbour Island in the first division of the bumper. Bowen dropped him out last off a strong pace, was still five lengths down with two furlongs to run and got him up late to win by a length and a half. He was the 7-4 favourite, but I’m not convinced he was the best horse in the race – he just got the best ride.

And the in-running markets have noticed. Back in the McCoy days, punters were always wary of laying him – no matter how badly beaten a horse looked. That’s now happening with Bowen too, but for different reasons. Where McCoy would be all fire and fury, Bowen’s style is more subtle: conserve energy, sneak a breather, pounce late. It’s devastatingly effective – and in-running players are increasingly reluctant to oppose him.

Bizarrely, this over-cautious approach might actually be costing them. Horses who would normally trade at huge prices mid-race are holding up purely because Bowen is in the saddle. There’s now a kind of collective hesitation, as if everyone’s thinking, 'It’s Bowen . . . he might still pull something off'. And sometimes, he does just that.

So, back to the original question: is Sean Bowen the greatest British-bred jump jockey? It’s a tough one to answer with certainty. But in terms of pure feel, timing, and adaptability, I’d struggle to name anyone better.
 


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