• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

Coronation Cup

S

Slim

Rookie
Joined
Dec 6, 2019
Messages
3,099
Coronation Cup
7 declared:

Calandagan
Jan Brueghel
Giavellotto
You Got To Me
Al Riffa
Bellum Justum
Continuous

The strongest bet of the weekend might well be Jan Brueghel at 4/1 or 9/2. There must be a temptation for Ryan Moore to go from the front—he won’t be found wanting for stamina. Calandagan is a high-class horse, but there’s a serious hole in him. Three seconds in a row tells you that without needing to dig deeper.

The 4/6 about him is a fairly tragic price, and Jan Brueghel turning up here rather than replacing Kyprios on the Cup circuit is a big statement. I could see him being backed into around 11/4 to 3/1.
 
I just have a suspicion Jan Brueghel might prefer quicker ground than CoC Andrew Cooper will allow this weekend.

I'd never knock anyone for looking for an angle to oppose an odds-on favourite, though.
 
I don't think Jan Breughel has the toe to trouble the favourite. Moore goes from the front + tries to force it. I think it will play into the hands of Giavellotto, whose G1 win at 12f at Sha Tin was high class form. As a dual Yorkshire Cup winner, stamina no problem. He's the one I think who may upset the favourite.
 
The only hole in Calandagan is the idiot Frenchmen usually riding him. And one of the worst offenders is up top on Friday. JB is a sound bet with that factored in. I still have the occasional Thierry Jarnet/Subotica flashbacks.
 
JB done me proud at Donny and probably isn't as slow as some think. That said, he is going to need pace to chase me thinks, or take it up himself.

That said, the fav wins. Hoping for some evens floating about on the day.
 
Frankel said:
JB done me proud at Donny and probably isn't as slow as some think. That said, he is going to need pace to chase me thinks, or take it up himself.

That said, the fav wins. Hoping for some evens floating about on the day.
Click to expand...
Moore will make it.
 
Robicheaux said:
I don't think Jan Breughel has the toe to trouble the favourite. Moore goes from the front + tries to force it. I think it will play into the hands of Giavellotto, whose G1 win at 12f at Sha Tin was high class form. As a dual Yorkshire Cup winner, stamina no problem. He's the one I think who may upset the favourite.
Click to expand...

I've taken Giavellotto (8/1, ew) because I'm not convinced the favourite is as good as the big ratings he's been getting. I think you can pick holes in his form. Even if the favourite is the better horse, Giavellotto is clear of the others on ORs nd RPRs and shouldn't be anywhere near 8/1. That price is miles too long and I'd rather back him ew at the price than a win bet on the fav at odds-on.
 
I like Giavellotto and have done ever since I saw him finish fourth in a Class 3 Handicap off 88 over 1m2f at Sandown Park in April 2022.

He's certainly come a long way since then.

But I've always felt Giavellotto was at his best on a more resilient surface than I am now obsessively predicting on every Epsom Downs thread may be the case on Friday.

If I'm wrong, and Epsom avoids the rain, I may have something on him on the day.

But if I'm right then, rather boringly, I think Calandagan will win it.

He's never run a bad race in his life, he's won four of his nine races, on ground ranging from Good to Firm to Heavy, he was runner up to City Of Troy in the International Stakes and to Anmaat in a Champion Stakes on Good to Soft and he had Giavellotto five lengths behind him at Meydan.
 
I have serious reservations about Calandagan. His Ascot handicap romp has produced just one subsequent stakes winner—The Euphrates in a Listed race at the mighty Gowran Park. In his last three runs, he’s found a way to get beaten. They’ve talked themselves into believing that stepping up to 12 furlongs will solve these issues, but I can see him travelling well before drifting across the camber—just when he needs to be running down Ryan Moore. Watch back how he comes across the track at York when trying to do the same.
 
I'm with Slim on this; Calandagan lacks the boot to trouble these,likewise Giavelotto.
I'll trust RM will be aware of their limitations,and he (with the help of Continuous) will bring home the prize..
 
After 1mm rain overnight the latest stick reading is 6.9 and there is 8mm rain forecast today.

By way of comparison it was 7.0 over 5f and 6.7 the rest of the track at the April meeting.
 
reet hard said:
I'm with Slim on this; Calandagan lacks the boot to trouble these,likewise Giavelotto.
I'll trust RM will be aware of their limitations,and he (with the help of Continuous) will bring home the prize..
Click to expand...
Don't be surprised if Continuous is used as a decoy for the lead here, just like City of Troy’s so-called 'pacemaker' Hans Andersen, who didn’t actually lead in the Juddmonte at York last year. It makes no sense for Jan Brueghel to sit in, given the dynamics of the race.
 
Turftrax report this morning:

Weather:
3.4mm rain Tuesday afternoon. Dry Wednesday. Rain started at 6am Thursday with 4-6mm expected during the day. Showers possible from late morning Friday into the afternoon. Temperatures generally mid to high teens.

1749117869066.png
 
Slim said:
I have serious reservations about Calandagan. His Ascot handicap romp has produced just one subsequent stakes winner—The Euphrates in a Listed race at the mighty Gowran Park. In his last three runs, he’s found a way to get beaten. They’ve talked themselves into believing that stepping up to 12 furlongs will solve these issues, but I can see him travelling well before drifting across the camber—just when he needs to be running down Ryan Moore. Watch back how he comes across the track at York when trying to do the same.
Click to expand...
So are you place laying the fav? Or having him for the the fc with JB?
 
I genuinely have no idea why people fancy Giavellotto. The books went mental last night and went 9/2 j2f with Jan Brueghel. Shocking odds compiling.
 
Slim said:
I genuinely have no idea why people fancy Giavellotto.
Click to expand...

It's a game of opinions.

I have no idea why people of a certain generation fancied Brigitte Bardot or Rita Hayworth or Lauren Bacall, or why people of our generations fancy certain TV presenters.

Re Giavellotto, in my opinion it's more about not being keen on Calandagan but I accept it could end up taking a chunk out of my arse.
 
I think, as stated, he'd prefer quicker ground, but it looks no worse than Good to Soft at the moment and he's a progressive horse.

Calandagan ought to win, though - however, the pilot is a bit erratic and that means a horse that ought to be twos on is probably the right price.

I don't mind him on Midak at long odds, but not in this scenario.
 
I have absolutely no idea how anyone fancies Midak for the Derby either. It's like people think French horses are some sort of cheat code.
 
Last edited:
I'd need to care what anyone else thought of me before I'd need a chest code.

Anyway, re the Coronation Cup, switch the jockeys, you get a different result, but we knew that before the race If it was close.
 
Last edited:


Write your reply...
Back
Top