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The 2025 Royal Ascot Tuesday Thread

Ian_Davies

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The six-day confirmations/entries are out this afternoon, I will think are something like 12 handicaps at the meeting so, rather than start a load of individual race threads, or go looking all over the forum for race discussion, I thought I'd create this and, if it has legs (ie forumites post on it) I'll create one for each day as the week progresses.

And if this thread gives down like a lead balloon....then fair enough, that's told me, supply and demand rules, so I won't bother. 😂
 
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The six-day confirmations/entries are out this afternoon, I will think are something like 12 handicaps at the meeting so, rather than start a load of individual race threads, or go looking all over the forum for race discussion, I thought I'd create this and, if it has legs (ie forumites post on it) I'll create one for each day as the week progresses.

And if this thread gives down like a lead balloon....then fair enough, that's told orumites post on it) I'll create one for each day as the week progresses.
Good idea.
 
Queen Anne Stakes Confirmations
Cairo
Alice Haynes
Carl Spackler Ciaron Maher
Dancing Gemini Roger Teal
Diego Velazquez Aidan O'Brien
Docklands Harry Eustace
Lake Forest William Haggas
Lead Artist John and Thady Gosden
Notable Speech Charlie Appleby
Quddwah Simon and Ed Crisford
Rosallion Richard Hannon
Sardinian Warrior John and Thady Gosden
-11 confirmed entries-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/queen-anne-stakes/winner
 
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King Charles III Stakes Confirmations
American Affair
Jim Goldie
Bucanero Fuerte Adrian Murray
Jasour Clive Cox
Kerdos Clive Cox
Manaccan John Ryan
Night Raider Karl Burke
Prime Art Jane Chapple-Hyam
Regional Ed Bethell
Rumstar Jonathan Portman
Starlust Ralph Beckett
Storm Boy Aidan O'Brien
Twilight Calls Richard Spencer
Washington Heights Kevin Ryan
Asfoora Henry Dwyer
Balmoral Lady Ed Walker
Believing George Boughey
Flora Of Bermuda Andrew Balding
Frost At Dawn William Knight
Mgheera Ed Walker
Monteille Mario Baratti
No Half Measures Richard Hughes
Aesterius Archie Watson
Estepona Mauricio Delcher Sanchez
Magnum Force Ger Lyons
Tropical Storm Andrew Balding
West Acre George Scott
-26 confirmed entries-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/king-charles-iii-stakes/winner
 
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St James's Palace Stakes Confirmations
Field Of Gold
John and Thady Gosden
First Wave Aidan O'Brien
Henri Matisse Aidan O'Brien
Jonquil Andrew Balding
Officer Aidan O'Brien
Opera Ballo Charlie Appleby
Rashabar Brian Meehan
Ruling Court Charlie Appleby
Scorthy Champ Joseph O'Brien
Shadow Of Light Charlie Appleby
Windlord Andrew Balding
-11 confirmed entries-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/st-james-palace-stakes/winner
 
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King Charles III Stakes Confirmations
American Affair
Jim Goldie
Bucanero Fuerte Adrian Murray
Jasour Clive Cox
Kerdos Clive Cox
Manaccan John Ryan
Night Raider Karl Burke
Prime Art Jane Chapple-Hyam
Regional Ed Bethell
Rumstar Jonathan Portman
Starlust Ralph Beckett
Storm Boy Aidan O'Brien
Twilight Calls Richard Spencer
Washington Heights Kevin Ryan
Asfoora Henry Dwyer
Balmoral Lady Ed Walker
Believing George Boughey
Flora Of Bermuda Andrew Balding
Frost At Dawn William Knight
Mgheera Ed Walker
Monteille Mario Baratti
No Half Measures Richard Hughes
Aesterius Archie Watson
Estepona Mauricio Delcher Sanchez
Magnum Force Ger Lyons
Tropical Storm Andrew Balding
West Acre George Scott
-26 confirmations-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/king-charles-iii-stakes/winner
I think Aaesterius is big at 40s. Fast 2yo. Trainers Bradsell won this 2 years ago, coming off a disappointing run at Haydock.
 
St James's Palace Stakes Confirmations
Field Of Gold
John and Thady Gosden
First Wave Aidan O'Brien
Henri Matisse Aidan O'Brien
Jonquil Andrew Balding
Officer Aidan O'Brien
Opera Ballo Charlie Appleby
Rashabar Brian Meehan
Ruling Court Charlie Appleby
Scorthy Champ Joseph O'Brien
Shadow Of Light Charlie Appleby
Windlord Andrew Balding
-11 confirmed entries-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/st-james-palace-stakes/winner
If Shadow Of Light runs in this instead of the Commonwealth Cup, The Devil will have well and truly vomited in my (ante-post) kettle.
 
I've excluded the official going description as I haven't got the remotest interest in what any CoC says the ground is - I do just about trust most CoCs to take a competent stick reading, though, and even occasionally actually report what it actually says....

Goingstick: Stands side: 8.0, Centre: 8.1, Farside: 8.2. Round: 7.0. Soil Moisture: 38%. Reading taken on Wednesday 11th June at 2.30pm. The next Goingstick and soil moisture readings will be taken on Friday

Rails: The rail on the round course will be positioned approx 4yds out from approx 9f out to the Home Straight this will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.
 
Ascot Stakes. Tritonic at 50s is tempting ew.
Very well handicapped on his 3rd in this 2 year ago.
May be regressive.. I'll hold fire till Sunday.
Just the two so far which are last year's third Kyle of Lochalsh ( 33/1) for Hughie Morrison, and Reaching High (16/1) for Willie Mullins.

Kyle of Lochalsh was also fourth of eighteen in the two and half mile handicap at the Goodwood Festival and was afterwards rated as high as 99, but is now down to 97 which is a couple of pounds higher than in the 2024 Ascot Stakes. Looks suited by a thorough test of stamina rather than a sprint from the home turn.

Reaching High ( Sea The Stars x Estimate ) used to be trained by Sir Michael Stoute, and has had one run for Willie Mullins when a short-head second of fourteen in a lady riders' handicap over a mile and a half at Leopardstown last month. Owned by The King and Queen, and the trainer does pretty well in the long-distance races too. He has several others entered in the race including Triumph Hurdle winner Poniros.
 
Looks like nice fast ground, imo the fairest all round, so I'm expecting the CoC to apply water liberally.

This is Turftrax report, dated yesterday:

Weather:
Dry for the past 24 hours to 2.30pm Wednesday. 15.6mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. A largely dry forecast until Thursday when thunderstorms are possible through to Saturday. From Sunday it currently looks like it could become drier and more settled. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

1749725581472.png
 
What you need, Maurice, is someone local to the track, with 40 years experience of walking courses and gauging the ground, but who isn't the sort of complete **** who would keep his findings to himself if he actually bothered his arse to drive up there from, say, Hampshire on Monday evening.

As per usual, I fall at the final flight when clear on those criteria. 😂
 
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I
Looks like nice fast ground, imo the fairest all round, so I'm expecting the CoC to apply water liberally.

This is Turftrax report, dated yesterday:

Weather:
Dry for the past 24 hours to 2.30pm Wednesday. 15.6mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. A largely dry forecast until Thursday when thunderstorms are possible through to Saturday. From Sunday it currently looks like it could become drier and more settled. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

View attachment 24196

I’m obviously misreading the Turftrax going stick - how can the same average reading be good to firm on the round course, but only good on the straight course? Same with the other average readings.
 
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There are guys out there getting very into using AI tools to aid horse racing analysis, as such I thought I'd have a dabble and I went onto Chatgpt and Claude and asked about The Queen Anne stakes and got this back from Chapgpt

1749736846914.png
Then started a new chat and asked the same question again and got a slightly different answer.

Claude gives similar results because basically what you get is just a fancy google search regurgitating whatever bollocks is out there on the net.

I know some of it is bollocks (eg the Prix Du Muguet) and misses out a lot (e.g. the Goodwood Sussex Flat Stakes) because I take the trouble to collate the hard stats of horses going from one race to another since 2000

Now here are those stats the horses going from various races to the next Queen Anne, the highlighted lines being those I feel are most worth taking note of. And in the last column you can see the runners in the current decs who competed in the last renewal of the trial and it's finishing position.


Royal Ascot Queen Anne Stakes full trial race stats with runners.jpg

BUT where the AI tools get more interesting is when you switch off it's web search and limit it to strictly your own uploaded data. As such I uploaded a csv file version of the above into Claude and it chucked this back

1749738060994.png
 
I


I’m obviously misreading the Turftrax going stick - how can the same average reading be good to firm on the round course, but geonly good on the straight course? Same with the other average readings.
2 different tracks,with different drainage.
 
Aye, I get that bit reet. But how come a reading of 7.4 on the straight course makes that course running “good”, whereas 7.4 on the round course makes it running “good to firm” . I would have thought the actual reading falls into an appropriate band of ground description wherever you plunge the stick?
 
Aye, I get that bit reet. But how come a reading of 7.4 on the straight course makes that course running “good”, whereas 7.4 on the round course makes it running “good to firm” . I would have thought the actual reading falls into an appropriate band of ground description wherever you plunge the stick?
It measures the "shear" which (I guess) is the resistance of the sod,when levered.
The straight is vert[drained and (probably) watered more often
AFAIAA,anyway.
 


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