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The 2025 Longshot Thread

One for today that I've been following closely.

Comes with a warning: I’m completely guessing—but there’s merit.

Hamilton 6:45
Cougar – 50/1

Ex-JP horse. Since when did JP start selling horses?

Moved from Padraig Roche to Ben Haslam, then quickly to Iain Jardine and changed colours.

In just 88 days, Jardine has got him down from a mark of 85 to 63 with five quick runs—only once showing any real ability.

The interesting part: he now holds two entries. One today in an apprentice handicap, and another back at Hamilton on Wednesday in a 0–65.

If he wins today off 63, he gets no penalty for Wednesday because it’s an apprentice race today.

If ever this horse is going to spark into life, it’s going to be today.

He won on soft ground on the Flat in Ireland, and this will be the first time he’s encountered any cut in the ground in the UK—has to help.

I could be miles wrong, but at the price, it's worth finding out.
 
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Slim said:
One for today that I've been following closely.

Comes with a warning: I’m completely guessing—but there’s merit.

Hamilton 6:45
Cougar – 50/1

Ex-JP horse. Since when did JP start selling horses?

Moved from Padraig Roche to Ben Haslam, then quickly to Iain Jardine and changed colours.

In just 88 days, Jardine has got him down from a mark of 85 to 63 with five quick runs—only once showing any real ability.

The interesting part: he now holds two entries. One today in an apprentice handicap, and another back at Hamilton on Wednesday in a 0–65.

If he wins today off 63, he gets no penalty for Wednesday because it’s an apprentice race today.

If ever this horse is going to spark into life, it’s going to be today.

He won on soft ground on the Flat in Ireland, and this will be the first time he’s encountered any cut in the ground in the UK—has to help.

I could be miles wrong, but at the price, it's worth finding out.
Click to expand...

I'll be getting my money back when this is wanted in the market.
 
I've taken a few longshots for tomorrow, some I fancy more than others but thought they were all overpriced:

3.40 Washington Heights 40/1, 4 places; I've another one in this race but am waiting for a further drift so maybe will get the chance to back/post it tomorrow.

5.00 San Salvador 50/1, 5 places; Woot City 40/1, 6 places.

6.10 Samui 22/1, 5 places; Real Dream 28/1, 5 places.

(Wouldn't cost much to combine them in ew doubles...)
 
Samui is very interesting. Was 7/4 for the stayers handicap at the Shegsr Cup meeting. It was a reserve and didn't get a run. I expected it to have won a flat handicap by now.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
3.40 Washington Heights 40/1, 4 places; I've another one in this race but am waiting for a further drift so maybe will get the chance to back/post it tomorrow.
Click to expand...

The other hasn't drifted so I've settled for 50/1, 5 places - Manaccan. He was very much on the up when last seen over two years ago and it’s interesting that they’re bringing it here first time up. If he’s fragile they might think they’ll only get one shot at glory.
 
Royal Ascot 4.20
Henri Matisse 7/2

Coral Eclipse
Camille Pissaro 8/1

Double pays 40.5

It's highly correlated both on form and what will run at Sandown. If he were to win it wouldn't surprise me to see Camille Pissaro shorten to about 9/2 to win the Coal Eclipse.
 
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Eternal solace 230 66 /1
Solana Rose 330. 40/1?

Francophone 535 25 /1
Queen of atlantis 33 /1

4 ew doubles
 


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