• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

Ante-Post Props 2025 Flat

"Fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby."

I don't know who coined the phrase or what substance there was to justify it but it's been a racing saying for as long as I've been interested in racing.

Whatever... I've now punted the Guineas fourth for the Derby. It had completely fallen off my radar so when I saw the article in today's RP [online] I decided it was a cheap way to reinvest some of the modest returns from his Guineas run and the trainer is now saying not only that the hrose was only 80/85% fit for that but they're also trying to get Oisin Murphy to ride.

Murphy will no doubt have more than one bidder for his services but the fact they're going public with it suggests to me they're trying their damnedest to get him so they must fancy their barra a bit.

Tornado Alert, 66/1.
 
Yeah and another saying is "a good horse will act on any going."

Various Group 1 horses were ground dependant (Kalaglow being one of the earliest I spotted) and the saying is meaningless - just because a horse is "good" it doesn't mean it'll handle all ground and if it disappoints on a surface it doesn't mean it's bad.

Always good to remember racing sayings mostly originated from inbred chinless idiots and none of this is rocket science. šŸ˜‚

I would like to see The Derby record of 2,000 Guineas fourths, though.

Generous?

Others?
 
Pretty sure The Minstrel was fourth in his Guineas because I got 20/1 for the Derby after the race.

(Howzat for aftertiming :))

Edit - just checked - TM was actually third in the Guineas.
 
Actually, for the sake of absolute accuracy, my brother backed TM for me. That academic year 1976-77 I spent in Bordeaux and Iā€™d left him a bank of funds to bet according to my instructions. I listened to the Guineas on my radio and cycled round to the British Library, a place I visited two or three times per week to catch up with all the news. I read in the Guardian (Richard Baerlein, probably) on the Tuesday that TM had been pushed out fro favouritism to 20/1 so I wrote a letter that afternoon to him asking him to get me some of the 20s. He wrote back saying heā€™d got it and had joined me in the bet. Come the Derby I canā€™t remember how I found out it had won but there was a sports cafe near where I lived and I recall downing a few bottles of Kronenburg to celebrate and inviting my harem of female fellow workers to celebrate again in the evening. In those days, remember, it was only about 12p for a pint in the UK and drink was even cheaper in France. I was earning nice money in France and stood the drinks all evening. A great day.
 
Shadow Of Light needs to bypass the Commonwealth Cup over half the trip, then.

Hope not, though.
Slim said:
Madhmoon was unlucky not to do it.
Click to expand...
So, to clarify, the saying actually should be: "Fourth (or third!) in the 2,000 Guineas wins The Derby - or is unlucky not to win it!"

I'm liking this saying more by the minute!
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
Third in the Guineas/First at Epsom has been the vibe this century.
Click to expand...
Second maybe?
Quote from an online article about the 2000G:

"An old adage states that the winning formula for the Derby is ā€˜fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derbyā€™. The last horse to fit such a pattern was the Paul Cole-trained Generous in 1991, although the 2008 2000 Guineas runner-up, New Approach, relished the step up in distance at Epsom and recorded a half-length verdict over Tartan Bearer, while in 2006 Sir Percy also came second in the Guineas before taking the Derby."
 
Ok, to further clarify, the saying should be: "Fourth in the Guineas (or third - though runner up is actually best), wins The Derby - or is unlucky not to win it."

Sounds like a bombproof system to me that has thrown up at least four winners in the last 48 years!
 
Desert Orchid said:
"Fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby."

I don't know who coined the phrase or what substance there was to justify it but it's been a racing saying for as long as I've been interested in racing.

Whatever... I've now punted the Guineas fourth for the Derby. It had completely fallen off my radar so when I saw the article in today's RP [online] I decided it was a cheap way to reinvest some of the modest returns from his Guineas run and the trainer is now saying not only that the hrose was only 80/85% fit for that but they're also trying to get Oisin Murphy to ride.

Murphy will no doubt have more than one bidder for his services but the fact they're going public with it suggests to me they're trying their damnedest to get him so they must fancy their barra a bit.

Tornado Alert, 66/1.
Click to expand...
Incidentally, Robicheaux also flagged this on 14 May when 100/1. Great mind's?

I agree that's good value too.
 
PlaceBacker said:
Royal Ascot (Tuesday)

King Charles-American Affair

Though beaten on Saturday in the Temple, thought the sprinter didnā€™t get the best ride and can see the Royal race playing to his strength of passing horses in true run races

Each Way @ 40-1 (Bet 365)
Click to expand...
Declared to run
 
Not my style, not my usual price range but I've had a look at this weekend's racing and I can't see why Room Service is as big as 16s for the Criterion. This 4yo is unexposed over the trip and ran really well in the John of Gaunt the last day at Haydock. One caveat is I would like him to be not held up as much as coming from the rear is tough at York and that's one of the reasons I want to be against Lake Forest who is close to top class but always gets too far behind. Room Service's really good form in 6f handicaps last year should mean surely he can race closer to the pace on Saturday, at least in midfield.
 
Outsider said:
Stewards Cup
Holkham Bay 33/1 Betfair
Click to expand...

From SR's analysis. The italicised emphasis is mine:

Get It was more there to be shot at, but ideally not by rivals who were dropped out several lengths behind. That was the case with the favourite More Thunder , who was 26th of 28 and nearly 10 lengths behind at halfway, and with Holkham Bay (20th and over six lengths back with just 2f to go).

That pair stormed through the closing stages and can be rated first and second by a clear margin. Holkham Bayā€™s and Satono Reveā€™s runs seemed to show that sticking to the stand side (which More Thunderā€™s jockey deliberately chose not do) was not the disadvantage some were maintaining.
 
Damn, I've only just caught up with my re-watch of Ascot in terms of the Saturday and that Holkham Bay price has gone. Never mind.

I've got a few in the old ante-post book:

Greek Order John Smiths @ 14s. Loved his run in the Hunt Cup, should stay.
Calandagan King George @ 8s. Course and distance winner, fear Kalpana don't see Jan B acting here with the short straight (big LA Prince of Wales vibes again). I'd back Goliath as well if he runs.

Cosmic Year 10/1 Lennox
Estrange 7/1 Nassau
 
Euronymous said:
Not my style, not my usual price range but I've had a look at this weekend's racing and I can't see why Room Service is as big as 16s for the Criterion. This 4yo is unexposed over the trip and ran really well in the John of Gaunt the last day at Haydock. One caveat is I would like him to be not held up as much as coming from the rear is tough at York and that's one of the reasons I want to be against Lake Forest who is close to top class but always gets too far behind. Room Service's really good form in 6f handicaps last year should mean surely he can race closer to the pace on Saturday, at least in midfield.
Click to expand...
Might be the best bet I've placed all year ruined by York being an incredibly unfair track, especially when there's a tail wind. They could do with adding a slight uphill gradient in the last half furlong.
 


Write your reply...
Back
Top