Another Newbie

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Aussie

100 + 100 - 560 =-360

Nice start to the day

 

[Chunky Monkey]

Acelum won Race 6 at Geelong.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Acelum won Race 6 at Geelong.

Shit. It literally showed on my screen that Tatsu had won.

Dam it. Thank you for pointing it out. It sometimes take a while forth Betfair account to update.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Acelum won Race 6 at Geelong.

I will wait longer in the future before posting.

It really did show Tatsu at the point I posted.
Dam it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I will not chase the remaining Aussie Races. I will turn my focus to the UK / Ireland later,

Thank you @Chunky Monkey for pointing out the error.
I will be more careful in the future.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Thursday 2nd September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:35 hrs @ Bellewstown - I am laying = Down The Glen

13:40 hrs @ Southwell - I am laying = Royal Max (As long as the numbers drop, otherwise I will change)

14:15 hrs @ Clonmel - I am laying = Ahead Of The Posse

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Thursday 2nd September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:35 hrs @ Bellewstown - I am laying = Down The Glen

13:40 hrs @ Southwell - I am laying = Royal Max (As long as the numbers drop, otherwise I will change)

14:15 hrs @ Clonmel - I am laying = Ahead Of The Posse

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

13:35 hrs @ Bellewstown - I am laying = Down The Glen + 250

13:40 hrs @ Southwell - I am laying = Royal Max + 250

14:15 hrs @ Clonmel - I am laying = Ahead Of The Posse + 250

250 + 250 + 250 =750

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I will lay one more today
Pike Road in the 14:30 hrs @ Southwell

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I will lay one more today
Pike Road in the 14:30 hrs @ Southwell

+ 250

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Aussie

100 + 100 - 560 =-360

Uk / Ireland

250 + 250 + 250 + 250 =1000

- 360 + 1000 =640

I am done for the day. I do not fancy adding more risk.

Have fun one and all.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Who But Roo in the R5 @ Moruya

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Shades Of Stardom in the R5 race @ Warnambool

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I will lay Doubting Eye in the R6 @ Rockhampton

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Who But Roo in the R5 @ Moruya

+ 100

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Shades Of Stardom in the R5 race @ Warnambool

+ 100

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I will lay Doubting Eye in the R6 @ Rockhampton

- 360

And that was supposed to be the weakest horse!

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Golden Vader in the R5 @ Warnambool

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Golden Vader in the R5 @ Warnambool

AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT

I missed the race as the shower hose split in our ensuite and my wife covered the bathroom ceiling in water...

This would have been costly. Far more than replacing the shower hose!

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I laid

Naval Officer @ Dubbo​

But I was talking to @petemartinez so I did not have time to post.

+ 100

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Aussie

100 + 100 - 360 + 100 =-60 So far

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I will lay Associate in the R7 @ Moruya

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I will lay Associate in the R7 @ Moruya

+ 100

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Aussie

100 + 100 - 360 + 100 =-60 So far

- 60 + 100 = 40

If I spot anything decent I will continue, otherwise I will stop and wait for the UK / Ireland races

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Cumnock in the R7 @ Dubbo

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Cumnock in the R7 @ Dubbo

- 1000

Once again the race card on Betfair showed a different winner for a few minutes. But I waited and got a nasty surprise.