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The 2025 Cesarewitch (Handicap)

Ian_Davies said:
From the deepest recesses of the "Cespit," I am delighted to emerge at the surface to announce the most wicked and cunning "Cesfolio" quartet for those Forecast/Exacta and Tricast/Trifecta combinations ever devised in the Free World.

The four beasts fully expected to fill the first four places home are as follows: Reverend Hubert, Fireblade, Belgravian, Divine Comedy.

There is absolutely no need to thank me - I'm all about putting smiles on faces.
Click to expand...
I see the RP Spotlight has tipped Fireblade and the price has halved, knackering my potential bumper Tricast and Trifecta dividend - once again The Devil vomits in my brand new Russell Hobbs kettle.
 
Seddon came out top in my ratings system but Vaguely Royal came second. Make sense of that if you will but at 150/1 I’ve got to go with it!I’m sure I was keeping an eye on Syd Hosies runners a year or so ago but can’t remember why!
 
The trial race stats for Cesarewitch don't provide any postive pointers but does show some significant negatives

Since 2000 there has been 121 coming back from running the previous year, 5 (4.1%) have won , 14 (11.6%) have won or place, 7 winners from the prev year have tried the following year and 0 have won. The runners this year who ran last year and their positions then are as follows Alphonse Le Grande (1), Bashful Boy (9), Dawn Rising (6), Manxman (2), Ndaawi(24), Reverend Hubert (8), The Shunter (15)


Since 2000 there has been 64 who the ran in the recent Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial Flat Handicap, 1 (1.6%) has won , 4 (6.3%) have won or place, 7 winners from the Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial have tried 0 have won. The runners this year who ran in Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial and their positions then are as follows Bashful Boy (5), Belgravian (3), Reverend Hubert (1)

Also since 2000 only 4 favs have won

The stats can always be broken but I see the current fav Reverend Hubert as a lay rather than back
 
I am actually going to Newmarket today hopefully to pick up cash if these four give me the comb/fc and comb/tc
Caprelo
Belgravian
Bunting
Mordor

Well I can always dream but will have a great day whatever 😉
 
Reverend Hubert was 11.5 BSP in the Cesarewitch Trial. He’s 10lb worse off with Belgravian today — yet trades 5.9 to back while Belgravian is 13.0. Belgravian, for what it’s worth, went off 1.98 BSP but 11/8 SP that day — I’ve no idea why. It’s an incredible market overreaction to one strangely run trial. Don’t even try to tell me this market’s efficient.
 
I shall go for these three.

Hipop De Loire (11/1)
Belgravian (10/1)
Caprelo (28/1)

And I really don't want either of Reverend Hubert or Alphonse Le Grande to win, but I'll probably still have a small win bet on ALG and a reverse forecast on the two of them.
 

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