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The 2026 Derby

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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May 7, 2023
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4,696
Location
Hampshire
What this year's Derby told me once and for all was that not many Group 1-standard colts (or fillies, come to that) are bred to stay 1m4f any more.

Both of the Epsom Classic winners ran over the full Classic trip at Chester and the Blue Riband went to an uber boat in Lambourn.

It's also a fact that Andrew Cooper, CoC at Epsom, is always odds-on to overwater than underwater.

So I'm on the lookout for a colt with a proper middle-distance pedigree that looks the part.

And the one that fits the bill for me is the winner of the 1m2f Zetland Stakes, not a race with a history of producing Derby winners but that could change in years to come.

Pierre Bonnard is by Camelot out of the Nassau Stakes-winning New Approach mare Sultanina.

By a Derby winner out of a mare by a Derby winner - I've not seen a pedigree that screamed Derby winner to me like that since Australia (by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner).

And he looks an imposing beast with scope to improve the way he's bred to as well.

The form wouldn't be outstanding, but he won comfortably, he's a stone wall certainty to stay 1m4f and I haven't seen a better Derby prospect at this stage than him.

Benvenuto Cellini probably shows them more at home, but I wouldn't be quite as sure about him at 1m4f.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-derby/winner
 
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Pierre Bonnard and Benvenuto Cellini were both confirmed entries today for the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday.

Action (Aidan O'Brien)
Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien)
Cape Orator (Ralph Beckett)
Dorset (Aidan O'Brien)
Frescobaldi (Aidan O'Brien)
Hawk Mountain (Aidan O'Brien)
Item (Andrew Balding)
New Zealand (Aidan O'Brien)
Oxagon (John and Thady Gosden)
Piazza San Marco (Aidan O'Brien)
Pierre Bonnard (Aidan O'Brien)
Port Of Spain (Aidan O'Brien)
Rochfortbridge (Adrian Keatley)

Latest betting: 8-13 Benvenuto Cellini, 6 Hawk Mountain, Item, 7 Pierre Bonnard, 8 Oxagon, 10 Cape Orator, 12 Action, 20 bar.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Pierre Bonnard and Benvenuto Cellini were both confirmed entries today for the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday.

Action (Aidan O'Brien)
Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien)
Cape Orator (Ralph Beckett)
Dorset (Aidan O'Brien)
Frescobaldi (Aidan O'Brien)
Hawk Mountain (Aidan O'Brien)
Item (Andrew Balding)
New Zealand (Aidan O'Brien)
Oxagon (John and Thady Gosden)
Piazza San Marco (Aidan O'Brien)
Pierre Bonnard (Aidan O'Brien)
Port Of Spain (Aidan O'Brien)
Rochfortbridge (Adrian Keatley)

Latest betting: 8-13 Benvenuto Cellini, 6 Hawk Mountain, Item, 7 Pierre Bonnard, 8 Oxagon, 10 Cape Orator, 12 Action, 20 bar.
Click to expand...
AOB with only nine entries - he's slipping!!!
 
Hawk Mountain 12/1 with Unibet for The Derby after winning the Futurity.

As stated, two more 2yo Group 1s at Saint-Cloud on the morrow!
 
Ian_Davies said:
What this year's Derby told me once and for all was that not many Group 1-standard colts (or fillies, come to that) are bred to stay 1m4f any more.

Both of the Epsom Classic winners ran over the full Classic trip at Chester and the Blue Riband went to an uber boat in Lambourn.

It's also a fact that Andrew Cooper, CoC at Epsom, is always odds-on to overwater than underwater.

So I'm on the lookout for a colt with a proper middle-distance pedigree that looks the part.

And the one that fits the bill for me is the winner of the 1m2f Zetland Stakes, not a race with a history of producing Derby winners but that could change in years to come.

Pierre Bonnard is by Camelot out of the Nassau Stakes-winning New Approach mare Sultanina.

By a Derby winner out of a mare by a Derby winner - I've not seen a pedigree that screamed Derby winner to me like that since Australia (by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner).

And he looks an imposing beast with scope to improve the way he's bred to as well.

The form wouldn't be outstanding, but he won comfortably, he's a stone wall certainty to stay 1m4f and I haven't seen a better Derby prospect at this stage than him.

Benvenuto Cellini probably shows them more at home, but I wouldn't be quite as sure about him at 1m4f.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-derby/winner
Click to expand...
24 hours on from Benvenuto Cellini getting stuck in the Town Moor mud, the magnificent physical specimen that is Pierre Bonnard powers home in the Group 1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud.

Next stop the Chester Vase, I'm hoping.
 
I thought so.

Much Softer ground today and I just wondered beforehand how well the race would pan out for a colt I reckon is ready for 1m4f already.

But they didn't go too slow, Soumillon always had him where I'd hoped he'd be (in the van with daylight to his outside) and though he momentarily looked in danger of being outpaced 2f out, he picked up and fairly powered clear at the death.

Not sure what the form is worth, but he looks everything I'd want to see in a potential Derby winner at this admittedly-early stage.
 
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I took 16/1 after the Zetland, but I wouldn't lay 12s and I wouldn't blame anyone who took it.

Cracking middle distance pedigree and to my eye an imposing beast who should be even better at three.
 
Thus far, the three 2yo colts I have thought might develop into significant Derby contenders next season are: Pierre Bonnard, Hawk Mountain and
Raaheeb.
 

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