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The 2025 Breeders' Cup
- Thread starter Ian_Davies
- Start date
The Fortune Teller
Journeyman
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2016
- Messages
- 8,759
Indeed. I'm sticking Tumbarumba in the each way yankee.
smartpredator
Amateur Rider
Rebels Romance isn't the answer anyway, it's Goliath
Race: 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1)
Date: November 2, 2025
Track: Del Mar (USA)
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1,000,000
Qualification: Fillies & Mares, 3yo+
Field Includes: Vahva, Zeitlos, Hope Road, Tamara, Praying, Sweet Azteca, Haulin Ice
400-Word Race Summary
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint brings together a world-class group of female sprinters, each with a distinct genetic and running-style signature. The seven-furlong trip on Del Mar’s fast dirt surface should favour tactical speed and balanced stamina—qualities shared by several of this year’s standouts.
Vahva, by Gun Runner, has the most complete genetic package in the field. Her dosage index (1.67) and triads (14-20-21) reflect rare stamina depth for a sprinter, and her sire line transmits relentless cruising speed with late resilience. She’s tactically versatile, capable of pressing a hot pace or launching a measured move. Her form figures (seven wins and multiple G1 placings) mark her as the benchmark filly.
Zeitlos, the Curlin mare with a Redoute’s Choice dam, is a fascinating trans-Pacific hybrid. Her profile (DI 3.57, CMP 0.54) translates into late-race endurance, making her the strongest closer in the field. Curlin’s stamina blends perfectly with Danehill’s sharp turn of foot, and her record of nine wins from 22 starts includes several devastating stretch runs at 7f–1m. She’s the one most likely to benefit if the early fractions collapse.
Hope Road, by Quality Road out of a Blame mare, brings mid-range stamina with a punishing late punch. Her 98 GCI score matches Zeitlos for genetic efficiency, and her classic 8f breeding profile means the seven furlongs should be ideal. She’s a grinder who will be advancing steadily when others tire.
Tamara, the daughter of Beholder and Bolt d’Oro, carries immense class. Her Beholder damline ensures natural brilliance, and she has already proven she can handle a pace duel. However, her dosage (3.00) hints that pure sprinters may outspeed her early.
Praying is the 3-year-old wildcard—Vekoma’s speed mixed with Bernardini’s scope gives her tactical flexibility and a dangerous finishing burst. She could easily outperform expectations if she tracks the right horses.
The pace looks ferocious up front with Sweet Azteca and Haulin Ice likely to duel early. Both have high dosage and minimal stamina reserves, suggesting vulnerability in the final furlong.
Expect the race to unfold with those two forcing the tempo, Vahva stalking just behind, and Zeitlos and Hope Road launching their attacks late down the Del Mar stretch.
Predicted Top 3 Finish
Vahva – Tactical perfection, stamina-speed balance, top pedigree.
Zeitlos – Powerful closer, class and stamina-laden genome.
Hope Road – Relentless finisher, thrives at seven furlongs.
Date: November 2, 2025
Track: Del Mar (USA)
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1,000,000
Qualification: Fillies & Mares, 3yo+
Field Includes: Vahva, Zeitlos, Hope Road, Tamara, Praying, Sweet Azteca, Haulin Ice
400-Word Race Summary
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint brings together a world-class group of female sprinters, each with a distinct genetic and running-style signature. The seven-furlong trip on Del Mar’s fast dirt surface should favour tactical speed and balanced stamina—qualities shared by several of this year’s standouts.
Vahva, by Gun Runner, has the most complete genetic package in the field. Her dosage index (1.67) and triads (14-20-21) reflect rare stamina depth for a sprinter, and her sire line transmits relentless cruising speed with late resilience. She’s tactically versatile, capable of pressing a hot pace or launching a measured move. Her form figures (seven wins and multiple G1 placings) mark her as the benchmark filly.
Zeitlos, the Curlin mare with a Redoute’s Choice dam, is a fascinating trans-Pacific hybrid. Her profile (DI 3.57, CMP 0.54) translates into late-race endurance, making her the strongest closer in the field. Curlin’s stamina blends perfectly with Danehill’s sharp turn of foot, and her record of nine wins from 22 starts includes several devastating stretch runs at 7f–1m. She’s the one most likely to benefit if the early fractions collapse.
Hope Road, by Quality Road out of a Blame mare, brings mid-range stamina with a punishing late punch. Her 98 GCI score matches Zeitlos for genetic efficiency, and her classic 8f breeding profile means the seven furlongs should be ideal. She’s a grinder who will be advancing steadily when others tire.
Tamara, the daughter of Beholder and Bolt d’Oro, carries immense class. Her Beholder damline ensures natural brilliance, and she has already proven she can handle a pace duel. However, her dosage (3.00) hints that pure sprinters may outspeed her early.
Praying is the 3-year-old wildcard—Vekoma’s speed mixed with Bernardini’s scope gives her tactical flexibility and a dangerous finishing burst. She could easily outperform expectations if she tracks the right horses.
The pace looks ferocious up front with Sweet Azteca and Haulin Ice likely to duel early. Both have high dosage and minimal stamina reserves, suggesting vulnerability in the final furlong.
Expect the race to unfold with those two forcing the tempo, Vahva stalking just behind, and Zeitlos and Hope Road launching their attacks late down the Del Mar stretch.
Predicted Top 3 Finish
Vahva – Tactical perfection, stamina-speed balance, top pedigree. Zeitlos – Powerful closer, class and stamina-laden genome. Hope Road – Relentless finisher, thrives at seven furlongs.The Fortune Teller
Journeyman
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2016
- Messages
- 8,759
I hope you're right about Vahva. Good luck.Race: 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1)
Date: November 2, 2025
Track: Del Mar (USA)
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1,000,000
Qualification: Fillies & Mares, 3yo+
Field Includes: Vahva, Zeitlos, Hope Road, Tamara, Praying, Sweet Azteca, Haulin Ice
400-Word Race Summary
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint brings together a world-class group of female sprinters, each with a distinct genetic and running-style signature. The seven-furlong trip on Del Mar’s fast dirt surface should favour tactical speed and balanced stamina—qualities shared by several of this year’s standouts.
Vahva, by Gun Runner, has the most complete genetic package in the field. Her dosage index (1.67) and triads (14-20-21) reflect rare stamina depth for a sprinter, and her sire line transmits relentless cruising speed with late resilience. She’s tactically versatile, capable of pressing a hot pace or launching a measured move. Her form figures (seven wins and multiple G1 placings) mark her as the benchmark filly.
Zeitlos, the Curlin mare with a Redoute’s Choice dam, is a fascinating trans-Pacific hybrid. Her profile (DI 3.57, CMP 0.54) translates into late-race endurance, making her the strongest closer in the field. Curlin’s stamina blends perfectly with Danehill’s sharp turn of foot, and her record of nine wins from 22 starts includes several devastating stretch runs at 7f–1m. She’s the one most likely to benefit if the early fractions collapse.
Hope Road, by Quality Road out of a Blame mare, brings mid-range stamina with a punishing late punch. Her 98 GCI score matches Zeitlos for genetic efficiency, and her classic 8f breeding profile means the seven furlongs should be ideal. She’s a grinder who will be advancing steadily when others tire.
Tamara, the daughter of Beholder and Bolt d’Oro, carries immense class. Her Beholder damline ensures natural brilliance, and she has already proven she can handle a pace duel. However, her dosage (3.00) hints that pure sprinters may outspeed her early.
Praying is the 3-year-old wildcard—Vekoma’s speed mixed with Bernardini’s scope gives her tactical flexibility and a dangerous finishing burst. She could easily outperform expectations if she tracks the right horses.
The pace looks ferocious up front with Sweet Azteca and Haulin Ice likely to duel early. Both have high dosage and minimal stamina reserves, suggesting vulnerability in the final furlong.
Expect the race to unfold with those two forcing the tempo, Vahva stalking just behind, and Zeitlos and Hope Road launching their attacks late down the Del Mar stretch.
Predicted Top 3 Finish
Ian_Davies
Conditional
That does seem fair considering she's just about entitled to get in the six anyway plus she's arguably not really had her ground since she won the Chesham as a 2yo.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Having been utterly besieged with messages begging for a revised run of the model after the withdrawal of Sweet Azteca, I felt I had to deliver because I'm all about putting smiles on faces....
7.00: 6/4 each of two Richi & Vahva, 4/1 Hope Road, FORGET THE REST.
Race Details
Race: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
Date: November 2, 2025
Venue: Del Mar (Turf)
Distance: 5 furlongs (1000m)
Surface: Turf (Firm)
Class: Grade 1
Field: 12 runners
Notable runners: Motorious (GB), Reef Runner (USA), Khaadem (IRE), Bring Theband Home (USA), Governor Sam (USA), She’s Quality (IRE), Ag Bullet (USA), Bear River (USA), Shisospicy (USA), Bucanero Fuerte (IRE), Invincible Papa (AUS), Puro Magic (JPN)
400-Word Race Summary (Pedigree-Based Analysis)
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint assembles a diverse international lineup of pedigree powerhouses, blending European speed and American precocity with Japanese and Australasian genetic stamina. The challenge at Del Mar’s firm, fast five furlongs demands raw acceleration, low DI (≤1.0) stamina balance, and proven turf inheritance through elite female families.
From the European cohort, Motorious (Muhaarar–Squash) exhibits classic 5f–6f turf breeding—Muhaarar’s progeny excel at firm-ground sprints, and his 1-k family roots through High Savannah link to Inchinor and Serena’s Song’s cluster of blue-hen kin. His CMP 3-3-7-9-5 and DI 0.71 confirm balance between speed and staying power, ideal for Del Mar’s slightly rising finish. Similarly, Khaadem (Dark Angel–White Daffodil) brings elite Group 1 sprint form and dosage indicating strong early pace (speed 11, stamina 9).
The Americans bring deeper speed but less proven turf stamina. Reef Runner (The Big Beast–Paradise Bay), with a pure speed conduit (DI = ∞), profiles as the field’s rawest pace threat but may fade late on a fast, tight turf layout. Conversely, Ag Bullet (Twirling Candy–Noble Grey) integrates Candy Ride’s firm-surface stamina with a robust CMP 5-5-5-8-7, offering turf-compatible balance.
Governor Sam (Improbable–I’m Betty G) derives from the Deputy Minister and Storm Cat crosses, producing middle-distance versatility. While not an archetypal 5f pedigree, his female family (8-c, 22-b) includes multiple Reine-de-Course lines, lending residual class. Bear River (Flameaway–Sixtyfivenorth) adds tactical gate speed and Blame’s durable genetics, while She’s Quality (Acclamation–Quality Time) continues Acclamation’s line of fast-ground turf specialists—her dosage (DI ≈ 2.1) fits perfectly for firm, tactical sprints.
Japanese raider Puro Magic (Asia Express–Medjerda) and Invincible Papa (Shalaa–Shwaimsa) introduce speed yet may struggle with Del Mar’s acceleration bias, both leaning more toward 6f–7f stamina. Bucanero Fuerte (Wootton Bassett–Frida La Blonde), a Group 1 juvenile winner with strong 7f stamina, could finish late if early leaders collapse.
Among female families, the field contains at least six Reine-de-Course influences (Bound, Long Legend, Terlingua, Toussaud, High Savannah, Clever Monique), amplifying the race’s class concentration. GSV scores cluster from 34.5 to 37.7, with Reef Runner, Ag Bullet, and Governor Sam leading genetically for raw potential.
Top 3 Predicted (Pedigree Match & GSV Integration)
Motorious (GB) – Optimum DI 0.71, proven 5f turf genetics, balanced CMP 13-19-21, firm-surface sireline advantage.
She’s Quality (IRE) – Acclamation line thrives on firm ground; strong turf speed inheritance and ideal GSV (~36.8).
Ag Bullet (USA) – Turf-adaptable Candy Ride stamina, elite GSV 37.31, and firm-ground sprint balance.
Close 4th: Reef Runner – blinding speed but questionable turf stamina on firm.
Below is a Pedigree Influence Breakdown Table for all 12 runners in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint field, built from your provided pedigrees and corresponding family data. This table integrates Dosage (DI/CD), Genetic Strength Value (GSV), Conduit Mare Profile (CMP), and Reine-de-Course (RDC) lineage markers for quick genetic benchmarking.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) — Pedigree Influence Breakdown
No Horse Sire Dam Female Family (FF) RDC Mares Present DI CD GSV CMP (S–St–Idx) Pedigree Summary
1 Motorious (GB) Muhaarar (Oasis Dream) Squash (Pastoral Pursuits) 1-k Bahamian, High Savannah 0.71 –0.17 34.55 13-19-21 / 0.62 Deep turf sprint family; elite firm-ground balance; stamina inflection via Linamix.
2 Reef Runner (USA) The Big Beast (Yes It’s True) Paradise Bay (Blame) 22-b Bound, Long Legend ∞ ∞ 37.70 15-19-19 / 0.67 Pure American speed cross; Blame adds depth; raw pace, limited turf stamina.
3 Khaadem (IRE) Dark Angel White Daffodil (Footstepsinthesand) 9-c Lady Josephine line 1.20 0.80 36.90 14-18-17 / 1.05 Group 1 sprinter, direct Dark Angel line; power miler genes compressed for 5f.
4 Bring Theband Home (USA) Into Mischief Tizatude (Street Cry) 26 Leslie’s Lady, Helen Street, Tizly, Cee’s Song 3.00 1.00 37.96 17-22-17 / 1.16 Dual-surface powerhouse; firm-turf stamina via Street Cry and Tiznow damline.
5 Governor Sam (USA) Improbable I’m Betty G (Into Mischief) 8-c / 22-b Clever Monique, Country Romance 2.67 0.80 36.45 16-20-17 / 1.05 Family of turf routers; Improbable cross gives class and tactical speed.
6 She’s Quality (IRE) Acclamation Quality Time (Exceed And Excel) 9-f Sunbittern line 2.10 0.90 36.80 14-20-17 / 0.98 Explosive 5f-6f turf sprinter genetics; ideal Del Mar profile for firm turf.
7 Ag Bullet (USA) Twirling Candy Noble Grey (Forestry) 1-n Toussaud, Terlingua 5.00 0.83 37.31 15-18-20 / 0.74 Versatile Candy Ride line; turf speed-stamina hybrid, high GSV balance.
8 Bear River (USA) Flameaway (Scat Daddy) Sixtyfivenorth (Northern Afleet) 4-m Affirmed, Dowager 2.40 0.75 36.20 16-18-18 / 0.92 Compact power sprinter; flameaway’s stamina lends strong late kick.
9 Shisospicy (USA) Mitole Mischief Galore (Into Mischief) 5-h Bound, Leslie’s Lady 3.50 1.00 36.70 17-21-16 / 1.10 High-octane American sprint cross; firm-track acceleration profile.
10 Bucanero Fuerte (IRE) Wootton Bassett Frida La Blonde (Elusive City) 1-n Fanfreluche line 1.30 0.50 37.20 15-19-18 / 0.85 Classic European miler cross; strong 7f stamina but tactical speed adaptable to 5f.
11 Invincible Papa (AUS) Shalaa Shwaimsa (Authorized) 9-e Highclere, Windmill Girl 1.67 0.67 36.00 14-18-19 / 0.78 Australian sprint influence with mid-distance French stamina; needs strong pace.
12 Puro Magic (JPN) Asia Express Medjerda (Elusive City) 1-l Waterway, Coupe de Folie 2.80 0.85 36.10 15-20-17 / 0.90 Japanese hybrid turf sprinter; strong 6f stamina; best when pace collapses late.
Pedigree Insights Summary
Highest GSVs: Bring Theband Home (37.96), Reef Runner (37.70), Ag Bullet (37.31).
Lowest DI (stamina bias): Motorious (0.71), Khaadem (1.20), Bucanero Fuerte (1.30).
Most Reine-de-Course lineage concentration: Bring Theband Home (4), Reef Runner (2), Motorious (2).
Best firm-turf CMP balance: Motorious (0.62) and She’s Quality (0.98).
Pedigree-Weighted Top 3 (Refined)
Motorious (GB) – Deeply balanced DI, proven firm-turf line, multiple Reine-de-Course anchors.
She’s Quality (IRE) – Fast-ground pedigree, elite 5f–6f genes, ideal CMP symmetry.
Ag Bullet (USA) – Highest American GSV, elite class from Toussaud and Terlingua lines.
Dark Horse: Bring Theband Home – top GSV in field; if pace collapses, can power late from stalking slot.
Race: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
Date: November 2, 2025
Venue: Del Mar (Turf)
Distance: 5 furlongs (1000m)
Surface: Turf (Firm)
Class: Grade 1
Field: 12 runners
Notable runners: Motorious (GB), Reef Runner (USA), Khaadem (IRE), Bring Theband Home (USA), Governor Sam (USA), She’s Quality (IRE), Ag Bullet (USA), Bear River (USA), Shisospicy (USA), Bucanero Fuerte (IRE), Invincible Papa (AUS), Puro Magic (JPN)
400-Word Race Summary (Pedigree-Based Analysis)
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint assembles a diverse international lineup of pedigree powerhouses, blending European speed and American precocity with Japanese and Australasian genetic stamina. The challenge at Del Mar’s firm, fast five furlongs demands raw acceleration, low DI (≤1.0) stamina balance, and proven turf inheritance through elite female families.
From the European cohort, Motorious (Muhaarar–Squash) exhibits classic 5f–6f turf breeding—Muhaarar’s progeny excel at firm-ground sprints, and his 1-k family roots through High Savannah link to Inchinor and Serena’s Song’s cluster of blue-hen kin. His CMP 3-3-7-9-5 and DI 0.71 confirm balance between speed and staying power, ideal for Del Mar’s slightly rising finish. Similarly, Khaadem (Dark Angel–White Daffodil) brings elite Group 1 sprint form and dosage indicating strong early pace (speed 11, stamina 9).
The Americans bring deeper speed but less proven turf stamina. Reef Runner (The Big Beast–Paradise Bay), with a pure speed conduit (DI = ∞), profiles as the field’s rawest pace threat but may fade late on a fast, tight turf layout. Conversely, Ag Bullet (Twirling Candy–Noble Grey) integrates Candy Ride’s firm-surface stamina with a robust CMP 5-5-5-8-7, offering turf-compatible balance.
Governor Sam (Improbable–I’m Betty G) derives from the Deputy Minister and Storm Cat crosses, producing middle-distance versatility. While not an archetypal 5f pedigree, his female family (8-c, 22-b) includes multiple Reine-de-Course lines, lending residual class. Bear River (Flameaway–Sixtyfivenorth) adds tactical gate speed and Blame’s durable genetics, while She’s Quality (Acclamation–Quality Time) continues Acclamation’s line of fast-ground turf specialists—her dosage (DI ≈ 2.1) fits perfectly for firm, tactical sprints.
Japanese raider Puro Magic (Asia Express–Medjerda) and Invincible Papa (Shalaa–Shwaimsa) introduce speed yet may struggle with Del Mar’s acceleration bias, both leaning more toward 6f–7f stamina. Bucanero Fuerte (Wootton Bassett–Frida La Blonde), a Group 1 juvenile winner with strong 7f stamina, could finish late if early leaders collapse.
Among female families, the field contains at least six Reine-de-Course influences (Bound, Long Legend, Terlingua, Toussaud, High Savannah, Clever Monique), amplifying the race’s class concentration. GSV scores cluster from 34.5 to 37.7, with Reef Runner, Ag Bullet, and Governor Sam leading genetically for raw potential.
Top 3 Predicted (Pedigree Match & GSV Integration)
Motorious (GB) – Optimum DI 0.71, proven 5f turf genetics, balanced CMP 13-19-21, firm-surface sireline advantage.
She’s Quality (IRE) – Acclamation line thrives on firm ground; strong turf speed inheritance and ideal GSV (~36.8).
Ag Bullet (USA) – Turf-adaptable Candy Ride stamina, elite GSV 37.31, and firm-ground sprint balance.
Close 4th: Reef Runner – blinding speed but questionable turf stamina on firm.
Below is a Pedigree Influence Breakdown Table for all 12 runners in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint field, built from your provided pedigrees and corresponding family data. This table integrates Dosage (DI/CD), Genetic Strength Value (GSV), Conduit Mare Profile (CMP), and Reine-de-Course (RDC) lineage markers for quick genetic benchmarking.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) — Pedigree Influence BreakdownNo Horse Sire Dam Female Family (FF) RDC Mares Present DI CD GSV CMP (S–St–Idx) Pedigree Summary
1 Motorious (GB) Muhaarar (Oasis Dream) Squash (Pastoral Pursuits) 1-k Bahamian, High Savannah 0.71 –0.17 34.55 13-19-21 / 0.62 Deep turf sprint family; elite firm-ground balance; stamina inflection via Linamix.
2 Reef Runner (USA) The Big Beast (Yes It’s True) Paradise Bay (Blame) 22-b Bound, Long Legend ∞ ∞ 37.70 15-19-19 / 0.67 Pure American speed cross; Blame adds depth; raw pace, limited turf stamina.
3 Khaadem (IRE) Dark Angel White Daffodil (Footstepsinthesand) 9-c Lady Josephine line 1.20 0.80 36.90 14-18-17 / 1.05 Group 1 sprinter, direct Dark Angel line; power miler genes compressed for 5f.
4 Bring Theband Home (USA) Into Mischief Tizatude (Street Cry) 26 Leslie’s Lady, Helen Street, Tizly, Cee’s Song 3.00 1.00 37.96 17-22-17 / 1.16 Dual-surface powerhouse; firm-turf stamina via Street Cry and Tiznow damline.
5 Governor Sam (USA) Improbable I’m Betty G (Into Mischief) 8-c / 22-b Clever Monique, Country Romance 2.67 0.80 36.45 16-20-17 / 1.05 Family of turf routers; Improbable cross gives class and tactical speed.
6 She’s Quality (IRE) Acclamation Quality Time (Exceed And Excel) 9-f Sunbittern line 2.10 0.90 36.80 14-20-17 / 0.98 Explosive 5f-6f turf sprinter genetics; ideal Del Mar profile for firm turf.
7 Ag Bullet (USA) Twirling Candy Noble Grey (Forestry) 1-n Toussaud, Terlingua 5.00 0.83 37.31 15-18-20 / 0.74 Versatile Candy Ride line; turf speed-stamina hybrid, high GSV balance.
8 Bear River (USA) Flameaway (Scat Daddy) Sixtyfivenorth (Northern Afleet) 4-m Affirmed, Dowager 2.40 0.75 36.20 16-18-18 / 0.92 Compact power sprinter; flameaway’s stamina lends strong late kick.
9 Shisospicy (USA) Mitole Mischief Galore (Into Mischief) 5-h Bound, Leslie’s Lady 3.50 1.00 36.70 17-21-16 / 1.10 High-octane American sprint cross; firm-track acceleration profile.
10 Bucanero Fuerte (IRE) Wootton Bassett Frida La Blonde (Elusive City) 1-n Fanfreluche line 1.30 0.50 37.20 15-19-18 / 0.85 Classic European miler cross; strong 7f stamina but tactical speed adaptable to 5f.
11 Invincible Papa (AUS) Shalaa Shwaimsa (Authorized) 9-e Highclere, Windmill Girl 1.67 0.67 36.00 14-18-19 / 0.78 Australian sprint influence with mid-distance French stamina; needs strong pace.
12 Puro Magic (JPN) Asia Express Medjerda (Elusive City) 1-l Waterway, Coupe de Folie 2.80 0.85 36.10 15-20-17 / 0.90 Japanese hybrid turf sprinter; strong 6f stamina; best when pace collapses late.
Pedigree Insights SummaryHighest GSVs: Bring Theband Home (37.96), Reef Runner (37.70), Ag Bullet (37.31).
Lowest DI (stamina bias): Motorious (0.71), Khaadem (1.20), Bucanero Fuerte (1.30).
Most Reine-de-Course lineage concentration: Bring Theband Home (4), Reef Runner (2), Motorious (2).
Best firm-turf CMP balance: Motorious (0.62) and She’s Quality (0.98).
Pedigree-Weighted Top 3 (Refined)Motorious (GB) – Deeply balanced DI, proven firm-turf line, multiple Reine-de-Course anchors.
She’s Quality (IRE) – Fast-ground pedigree, elite 5f–6f genes, ideal CMP symmetry.
Ag Bullet (USA) – Highest American GSV, elite class from Toussaud and Terlingua lines.
Dark Horse: Bring Theband Home – top GSV in field; if pace collapses, can power late from stalking slot.
Slim
Rookie
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Race Details
Race: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
Date: November 2, 2025
Venue: Del Mar (Turf)
Distance: 5 furlongs (1000m)
Surface: Turf (Firm)
Class: Grade 1
Field: 12 runners
Notable runners: Motorious (GB), Reef Runner (USA), Khaadem (IRE), Bring Theband Home (USA), Governor Sam (USA), She’s Quality (IRE), Ag Bullet (USA), Bear River (USA), Shisospicy (USA), Bucanero Fuerte (IRE), Invincible Papa (AUS), Puro Magic (JPN)
400-Word Race Summary (Pedigree-Based Analysis)
The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint assembles a diverse international lineup of pedigree powerhouses, blending European speed and American precocity with Japanese and Australasian genetic stamina. The challenge at Del Mar’s firm, fast five furlongs demands raw acceleration, low DI (≤1.0) stamina balance, and proven turf inheritance through elite female families.
From the European cohort, Motorious (Muhaarar–Squash) exhibits classic 5f–6f turf breeding—Muhaarar’s progeny excel at firm-ground sprints, and his 1-k family roots through High Savannah link to Inchinor and Serena’s Song’s cluster of blue-hen kin. His CMP 3-3-7-9-5 and DI 0.71 confirm balance between speed and staying power, ideal for Del Mar’s slightly rising finish. Similarly, Khaadem (Dark Angel–White Daffodil) brings elite Group 1 sprint form and dosage indicating strong early pace (speed 11, stamina 9).
The Americans bring deeper speed but less proven turf stamina. Reef Runner (The Big Beast–Paradise Bay), with a pure speed conduit (DI = ∞), profiles as the field’s rawest pace threat but may fade late on a fast, tight turf layout. Conversely, Ag Bullet (Twirling Candy–Noble Grey) integrates Candy Ride’s firm-surface stamina with a robust CMP 5-5-5-8-7, offering turf-compatible balance.
Governor Sam (Improbable–I’m Betty G) derives from the Deputy Minister and Storm Cat crosses, producing middle-distance versatility. While not an archetypal 5f pedigree, his female family (8-c, 22-b) includes multiple Reine-de-Course lines, lending residual class. Bear River (Flameaway–Sixtyfivenorth) adds tactical gate speed and Blame’s durable genetics, while She’s Quality (Acclamation–Quality Time) continues Acclamation’s line of fast-ground turf specialists—her dosage (DI ≈ 2.1) fits perfectly for firm, tactical sprints.
Japanese raider Puro Magic (Asia Express–Medjerda) and Invincible Papa (Shalaa–Shwaimsa) introduce speed yet may struggle with Del Mar’s acceleration bias, both leaning more toward 6f–7f stamina. Bucanero Fuerte (Wootton Bassett–Frida La Blonde), a Group 1 juvenile winner with strong 7f stamina, could finish late if early leaders collapse.
Among female families, the field contains at least six Reine-de-Course influences (Bound, Long Legend, Terlingua, Toussaud, High Savannah, Clever Monique), amplifying the race’s class concentration. GSV scores cluster from 34.5 to 37.7, with Reef Runner, Ag Bullet, and Governor Sam leading genetically for raw potential.
Top 3 Predicted (Pedigree Match & GSV Integration)
Motorious (GB) – Optimum DI 0.71, proven 5f turf genetics, balanced CMP 13-19-21, firm-surface sireline advantage.
She’s Quality (IRE) – Acclamation line thrives on firm ground; strong turf speed inheritance and ideal GSV (~36.8).
Ag Bullet (USA) – Turf-adaptable Candy Ride stamina, elite GSV 37.31, and firm-ground sprint balance.
Close 4th: Reef Runner – blinding speed but questionable turf stamina on firm.
Below is a Pedigree Influence Breakdown Table for all 12 runners in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint field, built from your provided pedigrees and corresponding family data. This table integrates Dosage (DI/CD), Genetic Strength Value (GSV), Conduit Mare Profile (CMP), and Reine-de-Course (RDC) lineage markers for quick genetic benchmarking.
No Horse Sire Dam Female Family (FF) RDC Mares Present DI CD GSV CMP (S–St–Idx) Pedigree Summary
1 Motorious (GB) Muhaarar (Oasis Dream) Squash (Pastoral Pursuits) 1-k Bahamian, High Savannah 0.71 –0.17 34.55 13-19-21 / 0.62 Deep turf sprint family; elite firm-ground balance; stamina inflection via Linamix.
2 Reef Runner (USA) The Big Beast (Yes It’s True) Paradise Bay (Blame) 22-b Bound, Long Legend ∞ ∞ 37.70 15-19-19 / 0.67 Pure American speed cross; Blame adds depth; raw pace, limited turf stamina.
3 Khaadem (IRE) Dark Angel White Daffodil (Footstepsinthesand) 9-c Lady Josephine line 1.20 0.80 36.90 14-18-17 / 1.05 Group 1 sprinter, direct Dark Angel line; power miler genes compressed for 5f.
4 Bring Theband Home (USA) Into Mischief Tizatude (Street Cry) 26 Leslie’s Lady, Helen Street, Tizly, Cee’s Song 3.00 1.00 37.96 17-22-17 / 1.16 Dual-surface powerhouse; firm-turf stamina via Street Cry and Tiznow damline.
5 Governor Sam (USA) Improbable I’m Betty G (Into Mischief) 8-c / 22-b Clever Monique, Country Romance 2.67 0.80 36.45 16-20-17 / 1.05 Family of turf routers; Improbable cross gives class and tactical speed.
6 She’s Quality (IRE) Acclamation Quality Time (Exceed And Excel) 9-f Sunbittern line 2.10 0.90 36.80 14-20-17 / 0.98 Explosive 5f-6f turf sprinter genetics; ideal Del Mar profile for firm turf.
7 Ag Bullet (USA) Twirling Candy Noble Grey (Forestry) 1-n Toussaud, Terlingua 5.00 0.83 37.31 15-18-20 / 0.74 Versatile Candy Ride line; turf speed-stamina hybrid, high GSV balance.
8 Bear River (USA) Flameaway (Scat Daddy) Sixtyfivenorth (Northern Afleet) 4-m Affirmed, Dowager 2.40 0.75 36.20 16-18-18 / 0.92 Compact power sprinter; flameaway’s stamina lends strong late kick.
9 Shisospicy (USA) Mitole Mischief Galore (Into Mischief) 5-h Bound, Leslie’s Lady 3.50 1.00 36.70 17-21-16 / 1.10 High-octane American sprint cross; firm-track acceleration profile.
10 Bucanero Fuerte (IRE) Wootton Bassett Frida La Blonde (Elusive City) 1-n Fanfreluche line 1.30 0.50 37.20 15-19-18 / 0.85 Classic European miler cross; strong 7f stamina but tactical speed adaptable to 5f.
11 Invincible Papa (AUS) Shalaa Shwaimsa (Authorized) 9-e Highclere, Windmill Girl 1.67 0.67 36.00 14-18-19 / 0.78 Australian sprint influence with mid-distance French stamina; needs strong pace.
12 Puro Magic (JPN) Asia Express Medjerda (Elusive City) 1-l Waterway, Coupe de Folie 2.80 0.85 36.10 15-20-17 / 0.90 Japanese hybrid turf sprinter; strong 6f stamina; best when pace collapses late.
Highest GSVs: Bring Theband Home (37.96), Reef Runner (37.70), Ag Bullet (37.31).
Lowest DI (stamina bias): Motorious (0.71), Khaadem (1.20), Bucanero Fuerte (1.30).
Most Reine-de-Course lineage concentration: Bring Theband Home (4), Reef Runner (2), Motorious (2).
Best firm-turf CMP balance: Motorious (0.62) and She’s Quality (0.98).
Motorious (GB) – Deeply balanced DI, proven firm-turf line, multiple Reine-de-Course anchors.
She’s Quality (IRE) – Fast-ground pedigree, elite 5f–6f genes, ideal CMP symmetry.
Ag Bullet (USA) – Highest American GSV, elite class from Toussaud and Terlingua lines.
Dark Horse: Bring Theband Home – top GSV in field; if pace collapses, can power late from stalking slot.
f$%^ing essays.
Ian_Davies
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The change race drop-down is your friend....
Ian_Davies
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Brevity is your friend, luckyme, it's a reader's attention span thing.
Ian_Davies
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Had to lay the fav at the price plus, following on from Groundwork yesterday, another tissue shorty in the frame at double-digit odds when I've bet win only because everyone knows each-way is for those who are lacking in moral fibre - FML....
Ian_Davies
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I'm having more second-place finishes than Germany in 20th century world wars.
Christ, that Shisospicy is rapid.
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