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The 2025 Paddy Power Gold Cup (Handicap Chase)

Based on my theory of Skelton keeping in the top weight (which hasn't) I completely ignored Panic Attack currently only 7s (God I can't half be blonde at times!). But 'Arry has sided with this one with Tristan Durrell claiming 3lbs off the 10.13 that Riskintheground now has. Panic Attack now on 10.6. Interesting....
 
Just checked the Met office forecast which theoretically should be the most accurate. There's a bit of rain but not huge amounts until Friday - possibly. Bearing in mind the woeful fields due to ground on the firmer side, I think the ground should be find on Saturday - prob good to soft at the worst and he has won on that. I do appreciate he is by Presenting and they do tend to prefer a better surface.

So it doesn't worry me too much at the moment.
 
Without studying at all, I've taken 50/1 Issar D'Airy (I believe it's a full brother to Co-op D'Airy).

It's top on RPRs so must be at least reasonably handicapped. It's currently looking like being 4lbs out of the handicap but the yard has used Freddie Mitchell's 5lbs claim to good effect this season and I presume they're trying to get him to ride. He can do the weight.

I thought it worth having onside at this stage anyway.
 

Paddy Power Gold Cup Race Trends​

  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7–9
  • 11/12 winners had run at Cheltenham before, with 8/12 winning at the course
  • 10/12 winners were rated 139+
  • 9/12 carried 11st or less
  • 9/12 ran within 35 days of the race
  • Only 1 of the last 12 favourites has won
  • 11/12 had at least 5 chase starts and 2 chase wins
  • Irish-trained winners are rare — home trainers dominate
 

Paddy Power Gold Cup Race Trends​

  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7–9
  • 11/12 winners had run at Cheltenham before, with 8/12 winning at the course
  • 10/12 winners were rated 139+
  • 9/12 carried 11st or less
  • 9/12 ran within 35 days of the race
  • Only 1 of the last 12 favourites has won
  • 11/12 had at least 5 chase starts and 2 chase wins
  • Irish-trained winners are rare — home trainers dominate

Irish trainers could win it if they wanted to. What are your stats worth if one is targeted?
 
THEM STATS ARE FROM oddschecker.
Stats from Oddschecker, links to Racing Post and other media articles - what happened to INDEPENDENT THOUGHT here?

I can find all that online media guff for myself - I want to know what Talking Horses members think.
 
I expect people read these articles or like minded articles then come to a conclusion about what independent choice they are going to make.

not everyone has a racingpost account.
Surely the more people read or know about the horses in the race the better.
 
not everyone has a racingpost account.
💯% - I'm one of those people who doesn't have a Racing Post account.

There is not one person in the entire RP building who could tell me anything I don't already know.

And even if they could, they're telling the entire world at the same time, so any value evaporates.

Ditto RacingTV, ATR with Simon Rowlands et al - all of it, nothing everyone knows is worth knowing.

There are some cracking judges here at TH, capable of independent thought which can include independent stats analysis.

That - and the banter! - is what I'm here for.

If it just became a media link fest, I'd get very bored very quickly.

But that's just me and yes, others may have different opinions on this.
 
I could never have told you oddschecker had a stats section but I'm not a stats man anyway unless they're 38-22-34 and supplied by a beautiful deaf-mute nymphomaniac who owns a bar.

I don't have a problem with people posting links or info from various sites. I'm free to exercise my option to pay attention to them or not, usually not, especially where stats are concerned.

I've come to appreciate, thanks to my football reading, that there is a difference beween stats and data, which makes me more appreciative of Pawras's posts which, for me, veer towards the latter.

But it usually takes something hugely persuasive to change my mind from my own conclusion.
 
But it usually takes something hugely persuasive to change my mind from my own conclusion.
Well, I'm glad to read this because I regard you as a prime example of what I'm talking about.

You haven't done it for a while, but I used to love your spreadsheet race analysis.

Like pawras's stats, it's something I simply cannot read anywhere else.

This is why I kept teasing you about linking to Rowlands's latest waffle every bloody week - I'd rather read what Maurice thinks than what Simon thinks!

I'm one person, others might love a media link fest, but for me the beauty of TH is the unique material you just can't get anywhere else - those know-nothing media fuckers should be linking to US, not the other way round.
 
Well, I'm glad to read this because I regard you as a prime example of what I'm talking about.

You haven't done it for a while, but I used to love your spreadsheet race analysis.

Like pawras's stats, it's something I simply cannot read anywhere else.

This is why I kept teasing you about linking to Rowlands's latest waffle every bloody week - I'd rather read what Maurice thinks than what Simon thinks!

I'm one person, others might love a media link fest, but for me the beauty of TH is the unique material you just can't get anywhere else - those know-nothing media fuckers should be linking to US, not the other way round.
I wonder how much the media dobbins come and lurk here??? I suspect their arrogance wouldn't allow it
 
Not normally my sort of betting race but seen as I'll be there talking shite all day with Danny,here's the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase trial race stats from the 5 day early decs.

First report shows the races where runners this year ran in the last renewal, nothing I would view as positive, which is unfortunate because there are races which runners have come from in prev years that have acted as decent each each way pointers, as the bottom report shows

20251115 1420 Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase - trial race stats.jpg
 
Not normally my sort of betting race but seen as I'll be there talking shite all day with Danny,here's the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase trial race stats from the 5 day early decs.

First report shows the races where runners this year ran in the last renewal, nothing I would view as positive, which is unfortunate because there are races which runners have come from in prev years that have acted as decent each each way pointers, as the bottom report shows

View attachment 24571

Do you honestly think anyone reads this shit?
 
Do you honestly think anyone reads this shit?

Does it matter whether they read it?

I don't mind admitting to Pawras that I don't read it but I fully respect the work and time that goes into producing the data and I respect his/her ability to interpret the data in golden retriever language for tech luddites like me.

(No condescension or patronising intended.)
 
As stated, I personally think links to stuff that's widely-accessible to all in the public domain, usually penned by people who don't bet for an actual living, clutter up the forum, but I'd also agree I'm being cantankerous, no one forces me to read it and others may enjoy it.

I also need to learn to keep a lid on being personally affronted by the implied notion some herbert in the media might be able to tell me anything - nothing here is directed solely at me.

I don't necessarily read all the genuinely independent detail supplied here, but I'd never discourage it as it's what makes TH unique.

I look at pawras's material more often than not, it rarely influences my final bets and staking, but "rarely" isn't a euphemism for "never" and he's also very helpful in supplying data in answer to questions, sometimes almost on demand - that's a resource I am grateful for.

I also liked Maurice's spreadsheets - again, I wasn't led by the nose by them, but they felt like refreshingly independent views, especially when he focussed less on other people's publicly-available ratings and more on what he actually thinks himself.

In fact, Maurice only ever bores me when he starts chuntering on about what people in the media are saying - I live in eternal hope Maurice may one day realise that his own views are a lot more precious than anything Rowlands, Segal, Cook et al might be rambling on about this week because their income comes from churning out this guff, not from actual profitable betting.

Apologies to Lucky Man, whose intentions were probably more honourable than mine ever are (mind you, that's not exactly a high bar - even Putin would run me to a photo finish there).

Happy Tuesday one and all!
 
I live in eternal hope Maurice may one day realise that his own views are a lot more precious than anything Rowlands, Segal, Cook et al might be rambling on about this week because their income comes from churning out this guff, not from actual profitable betting.

If I thought they were precious nobody would ever see them.

They wouldn't exist if it weren't for all the info available in the form book: times, comments, analyses, new ORs, etc, etc, and, to be honest, I'd probably still be subscribing to Timeform's sectional data which I found very helpful, if they were producing it for the big straight-course races. Many was the winner I managed to find because they had calculated that something had been disadvantaged by 7lbs by the way the race panned out. (It's obviously much more nuanced than that and those figures have to be contextualised a lot further but they got me digging that bit further to start with.)

So Newmarket, Ascot, Doncaster, etc were lacking the kind of figures I wanted and Timeform told me they had no plans to resolve the matter.

I know Suny Bay started working on his own with great success (which is why we probably don't see him on here any more) and he kindly offered to share them with me upon request but I didn't take him up on the offer as I felt I couldn't repay him in kind adequately enough.
 
Well here's my 2 penneth that nobody has to read as it does little but state the obvious but hoping it stimulates some discussion from fans of those that I've been dismissive about. Thoughts on the Paddy Power.

Jagwar

Won back to back here finishing off last season in the plate and deservedly raised 9lb for that effort with himself and the Company Sergeant pulling well clear of the rest. There was definitely some room for improvement as he made a few fencing mistakes on the way to victory. I'd definitely would think he'd be primed for this first time up for no other fact of it being run in memory of Edward o Grady and with Jp's links to him I'm sure he'd love to be in the winners enclosure to pay tribute after the race. For me the Plates a weak race but you can do no more than win it well as he did. There are lines from both his wins at Cheltenham which tie closely with the Alan King trained Massacio which considering that one took a couple of fences with him to the line in the plate there wouldn't have been much between either performance from my point of view which although solid enough isn't outstanding. The 9lb rise is going to be tough to soak up and the possibility that he could end up as topweight if Matata runs on Friday may make life even more difficult. Considering there may be a couple of unexposed types underneath who may have 7-10lb in hand of there marks Imo Jagwar will have to be Grd1 animal to repel all of them although it'd be no surprise to see him on the premises.

Il Iridoto

He was sublime in this last year won it well in a proper race. After that though came 4 runs at the course and beaten combined distances of over 70 lengths on all different grounds albeit all on the new course rather than the old. I've heard numerous excuses for this one down the years regarding the ground in that he needs it good, I've also heard it said he's better on the old than the new course albeit he's won on the new course on soft ground in his time,off a not to dissimilar mark than what he's off now. I've also heard Nicholls say he comes good at this time at this time of year which may be true as 2 of his 3 wins have been in November with the other coming in January. For me though a strike rate of 3 wins in 26 chases and the fact the ground could end up softer than ideal for him combined with him being half the price he was for last years renewal means he's not a betting proposition this time around. You could also consider than even though it was a proper race last year run at a good clip the 2nd the 3rd and the 5th never raised a leg in numerous runs after it (4th didn't run again). Obviously had a nice prep with the tack off behind Saint Segal and not knocked about so looks like he's in decent order coming into it but still not enough for me at the prices.

Panic attack + Vincenzo

I'm weirdly coupling this pair together as it seems all you need is to have something unexposed and a trainers name to get a single figure price for this. Panic attack especially I think someones having a laugh with. Not seen since February last year being beaten in hurdle off 125. Prior to that he won a Mares handicap chase and got put up 10lbs for a comfortable win. The 2nd and 3rd from that had a few runs afterwards and either got beat out of sight or pulled up. Panic attack has only had 5 runs over fences but is now a 9yo. In 2023 he got beat here 14L off a mark of 130 in a novice handicap. At least when it gets beat they can say he's laying it out for the Johnny Henderson. How anyone can take a single figure price about this is beyond me.

Vincenzo is a bit more realistic but nothing he's done would point to him being massively well handicapped and although there's not much to go on he's never run particularly well off a break. His one run over 2m4f last season was probably one of the most amazing we'll have seen with Booster Bob coming to nail him on the run in from a different county. He had a bad tendency to jump left at some of his obstacles and still looks very novicey which he was entitled to be after only a handful of chases. To my mind he's a lot more realistic prospect than Panic Attack and i have a lot of respect for Sam Thomas top bloke, top trainer but I can't get that race at Newbury out of my head and think would i want to be on this thing up a hill. Holds his chance but I'd of said it's a well into double figure chance rather than a single figure price.

Coming up easy

Well it takes a sexier man from Cork to make heads or tails of any Irish form but whats not to like anyway. His trainer saddled the third in this last year and he won't be sending one without a chance. Won its last 3 and seemed to improve again winning impressively when stepped up in trip on his seasonal debut. That was back in August and the fact he hasn't run in between would say this has been the target for some time. Entitled to improve again from that and he'll need to being 10lb higher. Whilst at the prices I'd rather have him than any of the afore mentioned and although there could be plenty more to come I'm wondering whether he's already shown his hand or at least enough of it for the handicapper to have at least a 3 fingered grip on him.

TheCompanySergeant

Cromwell again fast becoming one of my favourite trainers. This one ran a cracker in last years plate and hasn't really done much in a few runs since. He may well give his running but not matter how much I've watched the plate I can't see a chance in hell that he reverses with Jagwar here. Jagwar did plenty wrong that day where as TCS did pretty much everything right and still come up short. Without mentioning antepost for Cheltenham festival I wouldn't be surprised to see him in better order in the spring off a lower mark.

Bad + Conyers Hill

I'll couple this pair as currently they are my 2 ante-post positions I've already covered Bad earlier in the thread so won't bother too much again. The course is a concern and tbh I don't think he'd want the ground too soft I can see the point made that he could be a win or PU situation but I've backed him each way myself.

Conyers hill is fairly self explanatory. A decent enough 6th in the Grand annual on ground quicker than ideal staying on from the rear that's a bit of vital course experience. His run on seasonal debut they went a real gallop that day and he was given a lot to do trying to reel in one who'm he was giving the best part of 2 stone. He also looked to have benefitted from the step up in trip and ran right the way to the line. Every reason he should come on from that seen as the trainer has stated this was the target. Hopefully we get enough rain for him to line up and I'd suggest any extra rain on top of that will be a help. Think he's a cracking price and has a big shout conditions prevailing.

part deux to follow 10000 characters be damned !
 
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Es perfecto

Plenty of bits of course form and a mark that suggests he'll more than likely run his race here. For a 10yo he's lightly raced with only 9 chase starts and I could easily see him sneaking into the frame and maybe I'm being ageist but I just can't see a horse his age have enough improvement in him to win a race like this unless it completely fell apart. My days of backing each way on horses I can see sneaking into the frame but not winning are long gone but there is always more than one to skin a cat. If anyone was to suggest backing this in a place market at a similar price to what the favourites will be going off for win purposes then I couldn't put them off.

Hoe joly smoke

For me probably the most interesting Skelton runner in the race drops back to a trip he hasn't raced over much. The only time he ran over a similar trip he was 2nd to Resplendent Grey off in hindsight impossible terms no shame in that but before I'd get to excited about it none of the others who followed him home have done much since. However he's race fit having run decently taking a hold over 3 mile here first time up and whilst the majority of his form doesn't look good enough to be winning this he's another who I could see running into a place. Even that might sound far fetched but the Paddy power tends to be a race that falls to pieces as they go a hell of a gallop and there will be a few who aren't race fit who will blow themselves up trying to win the race and end up pulling up. I'd imagine Hoe Joly Smoke will be making his way through beaten horses at this point and horses that are usually ridden to achieve there best possible placing by sacrificing there chance of winning can usually do just that.

Risk in the ground

The risk most certainly is in the ground he won't want it getting too soft. Comes here off a career high mark after getting put up 3lb for beating Blu king Doro who despite the benefit of a run and winning next time out still managed to look like a complete sack in doing so. A career high mark after 21 chase starts takes some defying in a race like this surrounded by horses quite possibly on the up so that's enough to put me off him any further rain would be the final nail in the Skelton Paddy power coffin.

The other Mozzie

Does he want the trip ? Two poor performances at 2 and a half sandwiched in between 2 wins at 2 miles is enough to put me off alongside his ever rising mark from his good form over the 2miles not making this any easier at all.

Theatre Native

A good win on the new course in the spring and plenty to like about the De Bromhead 2nd string. He finished behind Conyers hill on seasonal debut and I'm hoping that's the way it stays. On just that evidence you couldn't back him for the reversal and you either got to hope he's come on for it a good deal more than Conyers which without a crystal ball who knows or his best hope lies in the ground being better on Saturday as when he won here in the spring it was good ground. If the ground is decent on Saturday then you could certainly make an argument for him.

Hunter Legend

Quite an interesting one for Queen of November V. Whilst you'd always be wary of something earning their mark at tracks like Leicester and Bangor it's not been doing much wrong. Won plenty between 2m4f - 2m6f and it's last run at Bangor was run at a decent pace for the grade and Hunters won very easily, the 3rd ran a solid enough race in a Punchestown handicap next time up and the 4th dotted up fto this season ( 2nd hasn't run since ). Looking at the profile you'd think the more rain the merrier and going from lumping 12-2 around Bangor to sneaking in off 10-0 dead it might just enjoy the day. I think at the very least it'll beat some of Skeltons home.

Matata

NR obviously! Should be be seen giving Jon Bon something to do on the Friday here. Mind if they make the mad decision to go for this instead he'll face a tough ask from top weight over trip he's yet to convince over.

Issar D'airy

Showed some ability at the start of last season getting close to Marator when it still had stacks in hand and then getting close enough to Liberty Hunter over 2 miles here then seemed to get worse as the season progressed. Form over the 2m4f trip has been poor and it's slighly out of the handicap here. Has had a run this year so comes here race fit if he reproduces his efforts from early last season then he could go well for a long way but still not guaranteed to get home. I have a sneaky feeling he'll outrun his price though and it would help if the weights go up to put him in proper.
 
The Gospel according to Saint Daniel - it is for religious moments like the delivery of these tablets of stone that I read this great forum.

All that has to happpen now is for Skelton to land the 1-2-3 to make me look and utter C**T and Slim to turn up afterwards to tell me I know nothing, absolutely f**king nothing about this game so that as I'm downing my 10th pint I'll burst into tears reminiscing about the time I knew my arse from my elbow whilst Pawras digs through the spreadsheets to try and get us out of the shit in the bumper.
 

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