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Some Stats

I don't know if you can check this Pawras, but years ago i wanted to see how favourites fared on each of the the AW courses for HCPs and Non HCPs.

The Favourites were winning more often as the years went by, I think (from memory) that non HCP's were getting very close to 50%. However, what i did notice was there was a massive drop in Fav SR at Dundalk and there was no reason for it. I concluded there was a bit of shennanigans going on there (compered to UK AW courses) and avoided the place. I don't think Chelmsford was a thing when i did it, or if it was, it hadn't been open for long.

I'd be interested to see if that trend has continued. My data went back to 01/01/2000, it still does, but takes a while to set it up and retrieve it. Just though as you're using some kind of excel database it might be quick for you to take a look. If it could be broken down by year for each AW course (as I did it), that would be great.
 
The trifecta/tricast thing is variable by course.
I will have a look as I've produced something similar previously.
My data is goes back to 01/01/2000 and is in SQL Server, I just write the queries to show whatever I want and bang the output into excel if I feel the need
 
Dingo Bingo said:
I don't know if you can check this Pawras, but years ago i wanted to see how favourites fared on each of the the AW courses for HCPs and Non HCPs.

The Favourites were winning more often as the years went by, I think (from memory) that non HCP's were getting very close to 50%. However, what i did notice was there was a massive drop in Fav SR at Dundalk and there was no reason for it. I concluded there was a bit of shennanigans going on there (compered to UK AW courses) and avoided the place. I don't think Chelmsford was a thing when i did it, or if it was, it hadn't been open for long.

I'd be interested to see if that trend has continued. My data went back to 01/01/2000, it still does, but takes a while to set it up and retrieve it. Just though as you're using some kind of excel database it might be quick for you to take a look. If it could be broken down by year for each AW course (as I did it), that would be great.
Click to expand...

Data from 2000/01/01 to Sat just gone, this is what you get blindly backing favs
1753216253018.png
Yeah there is a drop for dundalk hcap compared to other aw hcap but it's field sizes are bigger on avg and higher odds, so that will be a factor even if it's not the whole story
 
It was 2000 - 2016 I'd done. I can't find the breakdown for the AW courses, but that doesn't matter now, as it was obviously the average field sizes.

You can see from this pic that information/tech was slowly having an impact on Fav SR's. Not sure if the trend has continued over the last 9 years.

I found all sorts of stuff on an old HD.

Fav SR 2000 - 2016.jpg
 
Here's my trainer PRB2 ratings and £ per run info covering different time periods for all trainers with runners between 30/07/25 and 03/08/25 using data up to and including 27/07/25, allows you to see if a trainer is in or out of form, the £s per run is something of a class indicator.
If you don't know about PRB2 then an internet search will soon help.
 

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The 'discussion' going on about Cheltenham made me think about some of the bollocks I've seen touted as part of the "Cheltenham Trail".
So what do the real hard numbers say when you year by year, since 2000, cross reference runners going from the trial race to any of Cheltenham Festival races and total it all up?

First up the Chepstow Persian War Hurdle Stakes which I've seen touted as a trial race for the Baring Bingham......me thinks not.

1760990497862.png


Next up the Aintree Old Roan Chase Handicap which I've seen touted as a trial race for the Ryanair......looks ok for an each way punt

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Next the Down Royal Champion Chase Stakes which I've seen touted as a trial race for the Gold Cup......looks more like an each way punt for the Ryanair

1760996244597.png

Next the Wetherby Charlie Hall Chase Stakes which I've seen touted as a trial race for the Gold Cup......hhm if you think that's any kind of pointer to the Gold Cup, oh dear.....

1760996447849.png
 
Been talking about the tote elsewhere, below shows how bad the tote win single odds were on avg compared to isp had become, the new owners took over from Freds at the end of 2019 and are now tracking isp. Freds had the tote from 2011.
Shows during the Fred years that he robbed it blind so that betting win singles on the tote was for course day trippers who didn't know any better, especially as prior to Fred it actually had a slight edge over isp.


1761567062593.png
 
After meaning to do it for a few years I've finally got my shit together and built an exacta modeller in Excel, where I can set all sorts of filters and it shows me the bottom line LSP and ROI% for straight exactas and combo exactas. I have both the forecast and exacta returns for all GB/IRE races since 2000 but I went with exactas because analysis has shown they outperform forecasts on avg.

It currently has about 28k GB/IRE races from 2023,2024,2025 to analyse where I've picked my top 2 from my ratings.

From my cursory view it looks like there might be a few angles worth pursuing.

It's still in the prototype/WIP stage but once I'm happy enough with it I'll do something similar for trifectas

1764025613800.png
 
I've expanded the data range to 5 years of UK/IRE races, 2021 to 2025

And now I've produced a trifecta modeller as well which shows the strike , LSP, ROI% for straight trifectas (1 bet), combo trifectas (6 bets).

But because when I've read about people playing these seriously and seeking to cut down perms I've also added a banker combo trifectas (2 bets) where my top rated is the banker , then the 2nd top and 3rd top can both be either 2nd or 3rd placed.

Next I want to add where top rated can be 1st or 2nd, then 2nd top rated can be 1st,2nd,3rd , and 3rd top rated can be 2nd or 3rd. This comes out as 3 bets.
 

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