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Todays Racing -----England--Ireland

Yeah - I'm never happy when a horse is jumping one way or another as I always suspect there's a problem grumbling.
Good performance in the next from Oscar's Brother but I wasn't unhappy with Koktail Divin and he may be better dropped back in trip slightly.

Nice from Kabral du Mathan - that will jump a fence too.
 
Lay of the day

Don't forget guys some of these win :D

1605 Newcastle Butterfly Beach

Top weight in a nursery which is an automatic negative for me.
First time on the Tapeta so has to show it takes to the surface.
Sire is 30/267 at the Course and CD wise that becomes 5/62.
However, the record with 2yo’s here is 0/34.
Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 3/58. CD wise that becomes 0/7.
The record with 2yo’s here is 1/23.
Current 30 day record is 0/40 and he hasn’t had a winner since 22 October.
His current ruin with 2yo’s anywhere is a losing streak of 29 and just 3 places.
Couldn’t back it with those stats so opposable for me.




Trainer E/W of the day

14:25 Haydock Park

Nab Wood 16/1 (bet365)

"Nab Wood won nicely over today's trip at Ayr on his recent comeback, a performance which brought a 5lb rise from the handicapper. We left a little on the bone for that run, so he could still be competitive with his 5lb hike. Value each-way."


Good luck
 
Really good performance by The Jukebox Man. I thought he looked a little tubby before the race and so I opposed him. He will come on a lot for that race too - King George is a distinct possibility. He is very good.
 
I might as well also add that I took 33/1 Pic Roc earlier this afternoon for the Hennessy next week. Pauling had three entered, The Jukebox Man, Handstands and Pic Roc but he sent them for the good races today and keeps PR back for Newbury so I presume they reckon his mark is 'workable'.
 
Nice by both the Irish girls today - Lossie couldn't have had an easier time while Wodhood really wasn't that happy on the softened ground but to be fair, she knuckled down well (perfect op with such a low weight) and won nicely. Good run by the second too.
 
Lovely ride from Harry Skelton, I thought Handstands and Royale Pagaille got racing down the back a bit too soon and that does make me wonder if that took the sting out of RP's finish.

Harry just sat still and let them take eachother on, and was happy to sit in 3rd, then was able to sit pretty up the home straight and get his head in front when he wanted to.
 
I think it was never in doubt especially after last year. Haiti was very disappointing in the jumping stakes and looked a bit stressy beforehand too.
 
Handstands rather threw away all chance with some poor jumping including at least one really bad blunder and didn’t get home as a result. Possibly didn’t appreciate being taken on for the lead. A great run from Royal Pagaille but fair play to the winner
 
That Top Of The Bill struck me as a potential Grand National contender there. Bound to go up to about 145 and they might want it to go up another couple just to be safe but it fair jumped that field silly.
 
Lay of the day

1450 Newcastle Alfred Spero

Market has this as the winner but there are some stats that make the price opposable.
Horse is 0/4 on AW with 0 places. Course record is 0/2.
Trainer record at the Course is the last 5 years is 13/163 and her last winner was August 2025. The losing run is 28.
CD wise over the same period is 1/11 and the winner was in October 2023.
A really strange stat is that in her career since 2009 the record in the month of November is 0/56.
Jockey at the Course the last 5 years is 2/47 and it’s a very small sample for CD of 0/2 and 0 places.
It’s a poor race so the price looks ridiculously short given the lack of real form and that Trainer stat I’m willing to go risk/reward.



E/W of the day

Wolverhampton 4.25 GOOD SHOT 14/1
 
TOO LATE FOR THE LAYS BUT HERE THEY ARE FOR INTEREST

Lays of the Day: 1415 Tramore Jerisk Star

Simplistic view on this one.
Horse dumped its Jockey on its first run over fences so still has to show it can jump a clear round.
Heavy going is questionable given its worst runs have come on soft going or worse.
Trainer has a record at the Course over the last 5 years with Chasers of 1/14. The winner came back in April 2022.
Her current form over the last 90 days with Chasers is 0/12 so she doesn’t have them firing at the moment.
Jockey at the Course the last 5 years is 3/64. Chase record is 1/19 and the win came for this Trainer in April 2022.
The current losing run with Chasers at the Course is 15.
His current 90 day form with Chasers is 0/14 and his last winner was May 2025.
The overall Chase losing run is 19.
Opposable all day long for me.

1510 Hereford Granny Hawkins

As basic as they come this one.
Trainer form at the moment seems to have hit a brick wall.
Finished October and started November very well with winners galore but since 5th November the record is 0/24.
Its not as if they are all outsiders and Blue Tempus was soundly beaten yesterday at 9/4, Baron Noir at odds on, are a few of the recent ones.
It will turn but hopefully not today.
 
Taunton Thursday
I've had a gander as a friend is going and has demanded some tips so here are my thoughts:

Miss Althea Blue
Knock off Sox ew

Tom Taggle

Wicked Thoughts

Him Malaya

Oakleys Way

King of the Story

No Risk Today

Lets see if he uses my suggestions or does what he invariably does and backs about six in each race (confirmed by his wife!) just to say he's backed a winner.... 😂
 
jinnyj said:
Taunton Thursday
I've had a gander as a friend is going and has demanded some tips so here are my thoughts:

Miss Althea Blue
Knock off Sox ew

Tom Taggle

Wicked Thoughts

Him Malaya

Oakleys Way

King of the Story

No Risk Today

Lets see if he uses my suggestions or does what he invariably does and backs about six in each race (confirmed by his wife!) just to say he's backed a winner.... 😂
Click to expand...
Not the worst day - he didn't end up going as he thought it might rain (it was a little drizzly)

Anyway results were:

First race 1-2 (no I didn't do the forecast...duh! Second was 25-1)
Second race dead heat for 3rd
Third race - won (6-1)
Fourth race - 3rd (thought she had him too far back as he finished well)
Fifth Race - won (100-30)
Sixth race - serious jumping errors and pulled up (needs to go pointing)
Seventh race - 5th I think? (Anyway he was strangled out the back in a slowly run race and I think he needs a trip as he won a point over 3m and was sold for 100k so should win races)

Friend is happy enough - he backed all of them plus multiple others so he can say he had the 1,2,3....
 
So I've had a little mooch over today's card at Newbury and here are a few thoughts:

Act of Innocence - think this could be a very nice horse and Hendo likes this race.
Nice One Eric ew (as I think the Bens don' tilt at windmills - Our Boy Stan for instance)

Mambonumberfive - liked this a lot when hurdling and it won OK last timet too

Highland Crystal has to be the pick but I think Katie O'Riley ran a pretty solid race last time at Chelters

Regents Stroll - always couldn't wait to see him over fences - plus he gave lovely cuddles last week

American Mike - have a feeling he's well handicapped and could improve for a switch in yards

Impose Toi - always thought they liked this horse a lot

Punctuation - bit of a Hendo day for me but his horses are running better and I have a feeling this horse could be a nice ew price
 

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