I know you have some history of working in bookmaking, Slim, so I've no idea what you'll make of this.
I increasingly believe bookmakers pricing up markets, and market moves, whether positive or negative, are roughly 80 percent deceptive bullshit, and about 20 percent based on any realism.
It's a form of psychological warfare on the punter, but I really can't tell if its deliberate or accidental.
I don't know what to believe when I see oddschecker these days.
And yes. 'these days' is the operative words. I've never pretended to be a mastermind at betting, but I've never seen such weird and distorted markets.
E.G horses being backed from 33s to 10s the night before, the drifting to 25's by off time.
Something stinks, but I'll never be able to prove or solve it.
And I don't care that much either.
I do the form-check first, then look at the odds, certainly not the other way around.
Perhaps Slim would allow me to give my tuppence worth before he answers.
"These days" is what it is all about. Years ago, and we are talking 13 years and more ago as far as i am concerned, bookmakers employed odds compilers whose sole job it was to study form, form an opinion and then compile the markets based on their study, their knowledge and whatever other little bits of solid, reliable information came their way. And bearing in mind that we were all singing from the same hymn sheet, or in this case, studying the same form, all firms more less used to end up in the same ball park when issuing prices on a race. But of course we are all different and we view things in slightly different ways at times and that would surface when we compared odds. There was never a day went by, especially Fridays when the Pricewise races were being done, that we didnt have some differing over prices. For instance, i might have put something in at 9/2, my mate next to me could be 4's. Richie across the table could be 7/2 and the lad next to him could be 5's. So we would chuck it around a bit and then settle on a price that we all more or less agreed on.
And that would happen day in, day out. Early price races and ante post.
And thats how it should be done.
Yes there would be fluctuations and sometimes quite marked. But as you have noted, they are fairly common these days and some just look plain ridiculous.
But the reason/s are simple. The "bookmakers" of today do not employ odds compilers. apart from just one or two. Horse racing does not mean as much to bookmakers these days as it used to. There are far more lucrative sports out there now and racing is way down the pecking order. And obviously their main concerns are the cancerous FOBTS and Casinos, So practically every bookmaker showing on Oddschecker these days will have copied and pasted their odds from one of the only two firms that actually do compile. But even so, i find it hard to believe that the effort and study that goes into it these days is anywhere near how it used to be back in the day. The return on investment for hiring form men and compilers is just not worth it. So it follows that the quality of accuracy of the early markets is again, not what it was. And as someone who used to dive in and take up the ricks that they churned out every day around 4.00, i can tell you that there were always plenty. But of course that is not the only reason. Prices will move these days for just a few quid. Liquidity on Betfair is pathetic these days until close to the off and it doesnt take much to move a price a few ticks on Betfair either the evening before or the following morning. And of course the "horse traders" of today think Betfair is their god and will have their tracking bots linked to the exchange and that follows its every move.
So in a nutshell, very poor liquidity, "bookmakers" running scared, poor quality horse racing staff all linked to a much lesser dependency on horse racing for their profits.
One last thing before i go, a little story that will prove one of my points. I actually told this to a lad on here in a private message just a couple of days ago.
About five years, the missus and I had a nice break in Ireland. We took in Dundalk, Navan and Leopardstown. But on one of those days i had arranged to meet an old colleague so i sent the missus shopping in Dublin and i met up with him. We talked about old times and he said that people like me wouldnt get a job these days. We were dinosaurs !
He said they had five lads on their trading desk and not one of them had any racing background or any real interest in racing. They were maths graduates from university and were as quick as lightning when it came to numbers. Thats all his firm were employing now and opinions and form men were not wanted or needed.
And it shows !!!!!!!!!
