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Ante Post jumps discussion thread 2025/26

Double J said:
Skeltons will run L’eau De Sud in the Champion Chase.

Thistle Ask is an absolute certainty to go to the Grand Annual. Even if they thought he had another 10 pounds in hand, he’d hack up in the Grand Annual and when ya chasing trainer titles

(Not saying he’d win a Grand Annual either, just if ya have a Champion Chase horse, you want to be exploiting his mark first)
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Absolutely solid reasoning, DJ, and I totally agree with you but I just can't help thinking they think it might be up to running a very big race in the CC.

We have a fair idea of LEDS's ceiling. I don't think we do of TA's.
 
I've slept on this overnight and cashed out for a tiny loss.

I remembered halfway through my 3am pee that TA can jump right-handed and his task at Cheltenham would be a tough one without having to overcome jumping out to the right as well.

I think they might want to try and cherry-pick decent prizes on right-handed tracks. I'm not sure if there are any more at Kempton but there might be at Ascot or Sandown.

This morning I ran the Mambo5 race and this one's simultaneously from them crossing the first fence.

The leaders in both races were pretty close, the novices slightly ahead, if anything, until TA moved marginally ahead and stayed there and the only reason they finished very close was because TA wasn't being asked any questions all the way up the straight. Whether he had more to give I wouldn't know but it looked like M5 might have benefitted from a pace collapse. Both races were over 4s faster than standard.
 
Have done my first a/p bet for that meeting in March.
jordons 50/1 skybet Pertemps hurdle.

finished 5th in the qualifier today to its 25/1 stablemate.
never put in the race until late on.
The winner needed to win to get in but Jordans didn't and is well weighted on his chase form.
50/1 is too big imo.

Edit.
I just thought about it and checked and its the first 4 that qualify now,not 6. 🤬
Oh well.
 
Outsider said:
Have done my first a/p bet for that meeting in March.
jordons 50/1 skybet Pertemps hurdle.

finished 5th in the qualifier today to its 25/1 stablemate.
never put in the race until late on.
The winner needed to win to get in but Jordans didn't and is well weighted on his chase form.
50/1 is too big imo.

Edit.
I just thought about it and checked and its the first 4 that qualify now,not 6. 🤬
Oh well.
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It sounds like the jockey misjudged it after trying to ride for fourth place, in which cse they'll probably do the same thing in the next qualifier so I wouldn't give up hope too quickly.

I see in that result yesterday that the favourite and runner-up was Yeah Man off 118. That's a very low mark for a chaser of his ability. He ran off off 144 in the Kim Muir and 142 in the Irish National. However, given Sir Gino was rated 163 when reverting to hurdles despite never previously hitting more than the mid-150s, I'll be surprised if the UK handicapper allows YM to get into the Pertemps Final off anywhere the likely equivalent hurdles mark of around 124. It's more likely to be around 137. Maybe they should enter it for a UK qualifier to find out.
 
Stellar Story, Grand National.

Likely get soft ground. Stays longer than the mother. Getting his mark down in these grade 1s.

Graded horse when he gets his conditions.
 
Slim said:
Is there not a massive case for a Sir Gino - Marine Nationale double. Both look proper hot favs on the day to me.
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Both look hard to oppose. The purist in me would love to see Sir Gino in the Champion Chase mind.
 
I'm at it again but I can't help it.
moon d 'orange. 25/1 is worth the risk as that price is too big.ber365
won it last year but it is 6lb worse off with the 2nd,who i put up for the Paddy power a/p only for it not run.
 
Double J said:
Stellar Story, Grand National.

Likely get soft ground. Stays longer than the mother. Getting his mark down in these grade 1s.

Graded horse when he gets his conditions.
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What are you basing your ground prediction on?
 
On Grand National Day this year, it was officially Good to Soft and the time (just 0.14 seconds slower than standard) suggested Good jumping ground.

I wouldn't assume man-made outright Soft ground will be artificially delivered without wet weather on the run up to the race.
 
Interesting handicap chase priced up at Wincant0n on Saturday:
Eldorado Allen 7/4
Outlaw Pete 10/3
Gabriel's Getaway 11/2
Bucksey des Espeires 6/1

2m4 round a track like Wincanton is nowhere near enough of a test for an OAP like EA these days and Outlaw Pete has no worthwhile recent form so GG is a bet isn't he. Runs like he needs a step up in trip and I presume he's ok after unshipping his rider at the first in the DO. I think 11/2 is massive but no jockey is booked so tentative bet at the moment. The frigging Venetia could be a wild card and he is also entered up at Sandown.
 
Lud'or is quoted for this race at Warwick on Saturday at 4/1.

It's made me wonder whether I should just back the bloody thing for the Pertemps Hurdle in March at a much bigger price, but then there is no price quoted by any firm. Come on odds compilers, get your finger out, or I might have to end up looking really eccentric and actually phone up to request a price.
 
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Fact to File out at 11/4 for the Gold Cup. IMO his only possible opponent would be Gaelic Warrior, if he goes the Ryanair instead of the GC. F2F would turn Majborough (who may go Champion Chase) over with ease and the rest of the market is complete fodder/won't turn up.

You'd assume his price would completely collapse if Gaelic goes the GC (which is hard to guess as Ricci likes having the stables top jockey onboard yet Paul is obviously gonna ride Galopin + Paul has no Ryanair ride), so maybe 11/4 is a price worth taking. Could be the banker of the festival depending on how it plays out.
 
Market up for the Great Yorkshire Chase in a fortnight or so and I though Hyland was worth a tickle at 10/1.

I've held the opinion that this horse is better going left handed for a while and he really surprised me in the Ascot race lto where despite losing ground at most of his fences (he just kept getting in too close and honestly I don't know whether to blame a dislike for the track or Nico's riding ability) he managed a reasonably close up 4th. He hit the frame in the Hennessy but three miles on a track like Donny should really suit him better.
 
Euronymous said:
Market up for the Great Yorkshire Chase in a fortnight or so and I though Hyland was worth a tickle at 10/1.

I've held the opinion that this horse is better going left handed for a while and he really surprised me in the Ascot race lto where despite losing ground at most of his fences (he just kept getting in too close and honestly I don't know whether to blame a dislike for the track or Nico's riding ability) he managed a reasonably close up 4th. He hit the frame in the Hennessy but three miles on a track like Donny should really suit him better.
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I had him down as part of a Hendo Yankee for the first day at Cheltenham.
Old Park star
Lulamba
Hyland
Sir Gino
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Lud'or is quoted for this race at Warwick on Saturday at 4/1.

It's made me wonder whether I should just back the bloody thing for the Pertemps Hurdle in March at a much bigger price, but then there is no price quoted by any firm. Come on odds compilers, get your finger out, or I might have to end up looking really eccentric and actually phone up to request a price.
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Lud'ors fav for the qualifier on Saturday but no odds for the Pertemps in March.

No doubt if he wins on Saturday, they'll install it at silly short odds.

They still haven't got their finger out, how convenient.
 
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