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Todays Racing -----England--Ireland

2.05 Punchestown

Lay El Fabiolo @ 2.2

There’s absolutely no reason this horse should be so short. Hasn’t run since April so won’t be match fit and plenty of Willie Mullins horses have been desperately needing a run, particularly his non first string. Hasn’t won since almost two years ago, and has only completed on two of his last 6 starts. Hasn’t run over hurdles in public since 2022, and has never won over this distance. Ballyadam won this race last year and beat a race fit Saint Sam in doing so, and given he had a flat spin last month, he is a play at around 4/1 too. Spillanes Tower is another dodge pot who id be avoiding too. Can’t see anything else involved.

Lay El Fabiolo at 2.2
Back Ballyadam at 5.0
 
4.20 lady rainclound 33/1 e/w

3rd to AISLINGS OSCAR off level weight beaten 2L Aislings then won next three, Lady raincloud apprentice ridden last four times and Barry McHugh takes over tonight
 
Yes it looked like a broken neck - you only had to see how his legs went rigid. Really sad as I thought he was a nice horse - may not have beaten the winner but he would have picked up more races.
 
Poor taste from Ed Chamberlin after the race saying this is what’s great about NH. I know he was talking about Edwardstone but …
 
He's not a horseman compared to Luke and Alice who straight away knew what had happened. He's just a sports presenter.
 
I had a friend who was there today in an official capacity and he spoke to a couple of the valets who said the jockeys had come back in saying the ground was frozen in parts under the surface so yes it does sound like you are correct.

Not sure how many trainers/jockeys actually walked the course and unlike pointing I have no idea if there is a course inspector that goes out and does a final check ALL the way around with a going stick. You would hope so.
 
1425 Newcastle Kalo Athena

Horse got its first win last time out at Wetherby.
That was a Class 5, 0-100 Handicap over 3 miles on soft going. Its mark that day was 79 but today’s 10lb claimer was onboard so it ran off 69. It was a conditional jockey’s race, which may prove relevant later. The average OR of the race was 82.8.
Race conditions are virtually the same with a slight average OR rise to 86.5.
It has been put up 6lbs fort the win to 85 and as the claimer is the same as last time then the 6lb rise remains.
The win last time was achieved with first time cheekpieces and there is no guarantee they will have the same effect 2nd time around.
Trainer hasn’t sent that many here the last 5 years with a record of 2/14. Hurdles wise that becomes 1/11.
Jockey is the interesting factor for me and ultimately swings the lay.
Very limited record at the Course of 0/4 and 0 places.
The career record over Hurdles at all courses is 2/50.
Both wins came in conditional jockey’s handicaps and yet to win outside that arena.
The win on this one last time out was a surprise given the odds of 9/1.
It broke a losing run of 46 going back to August 2023.
Rise in the ratings, not 1st time cheekpieces and the Jockey stats make it opposable for me.
 
Hard work trying to find them recently and could only get 3 for today but i'll put one in here.

1340 Catterick Zero Tolerance


Career record of 0/14 and the Chases side is 0/7.
Started Chase career in April 2024 over 2 miles off a mark of 100. Attempted 2 Class 5 races at the end of that season.
The 2024/2025 season it was stepped up to a range of 2m 4f – 3 miles which saw its mark rise to 104, as it never finished out of the top 4. All efforts were in Class 4 races with the average OR’s ranging from 104.1 to a high of 112.8.
Started this season back at 2m off a mark of 103 and the average OR was 90.6 in a Class 5.
Steps back up to Class 4 today, over 2m 3f and retains a rating of 103. The average OR of today’s race is 104.2.
There’s no real change in today’s race from the previous ones that he hasn’t managed to win.
On face value there’s little to suggest it will reverse that trend.
Jockey at the course the last 5 years has a record of is very limited with a record of 0/3. He’s been around the Chase course once.
Recent 30 day form is 1/29 but he hasn’t been allocated the best of rides.
If we extend the recent form to 90 days it’s still only 2/66 and the rides are on horses that aren’t fancied to win.
Always a Reason looked to have more in the tank last time and will be more knowledgeable this time.
Ailt An Chorrain’s recent from doesn’t bode well, but it has dropped down the ratings a few pounds and Hughes is booked. Trainer/Jockey combo last 5 years with chasers is 5/18 so one to pay attention to.
Profile of the race looks to have 2 above the selection and it’s opposable for me.
 
Hard again today and only 3 so i'll offer one here.

1520 Lingfield Knights Templar

Basic points as to why I’m taking this one on.
A 3lb rise in the ratings from the win last time which takes it to its highest mark ever.
Both AW wins, record of 2/6, have come at Kempton and on the left handed AW tracks it hasn’t featured. Strange considering it has won on the turf left handed.
All turf/AW wins have been at Class 5 or 6 level and the record when higher than that is 0/4.
Sire hasn’t had many runners here the last 5 years but it’s 0/8 and 0 places. The wins have come mainly on the tapeta, 7/10, whilst the other 3 on the polytrack have all been at Kempton.
As an aside, the selection has had 7 runs over Hurdles and won once, which was in a Class 2 at..Kempton.
I don’t believe this is the Course for the Horse and the rise in Class and ratings should do for it today.
 
1530 Market Rasen Mr Zee


Race isn’t exactly full of quality, and I could only rule out 3 with full confidence. Of the 5 remaining this doesn’t look the likely winner to me.

Selection has a NH record of 2/18 and all over Hurdles.

The wins came at Taunton, 2m Class 5 on good going off a mark of 75. Carried 10st 3lbs

Most recent win at Wincanton, 2m Class 5 on soft going off a mark of 74. Carried 10st 2lbs.

Both courses are right handed flat tracks.

Remains over 2m in Class today, on good/soft, off a mark of 79.

That’s a 5lb rise with it running off 10st 7lbs today.

The main question for me is the Course as it is right handed but an undulating track.

Horses record on undulating tracks under NH code is 0/4 and 0 places.

Only a small sample but the Sires record the last 5 years under the same criteria is 1/19. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/16 and 1 place.

Trainer hasn’t sent anything here over obstacles in the last 5 years and if we go back to 2009 it’s only a total of 12 horses with 1 winner. Not a course he uses or targets.

Jockey isn’t a regular visitor to the course either with a 5yr record of 1/13 and Hurdles that becomes 1/8. Since 1st January 2024 he’s only been here twice with Hurdlers, and both were outside the “proper” NH season.

The rise in the ratings, lack of course experience for the Jockey but more importantly the indication that the track won’t suit make this one opposable for me.





I do think Marine Nationale and Lossiemouth are vulnerable today but the depth of data isn't sufficient to take them on officially.
 
🏁 RACE CONTEXT (NH FLAT – BUMPER)

Race type: National Hunt Flat (NHF / bumper)

Track: Leopardstown

Conditions: Typical Leopardstown NHF → fair galloping track, stamina matters, but you still need some pace/engine

Key success factors:

Strong NHF sire influence

Dam that places or wins in bumpers

French or German stamina lines a plus

Grinder-only pedigrees slightly disadvantaged unless ground is testing

This is not a sharp speed bumper, but neither is it a slog. Balanced NH pedigrees win these.

🧬 PEDIGREE LANDSCAPE (RECAP)

Using your applied pedigree overlays:

Clear positives:

Tiktok Casey (+8.5%)

Wonderful Everyday (+3.5%)

Solid but secondary:

Celestial Tune (+2.5%)

Brosna Shine (+2.0%)

Araminta (+1.0%)

Negatives / needs help:

Lilannbee (neutral)

Royal Hillsborough (–1.0%)

Moonverrin (–3.0%)

Dawn Of Light (–3.5%)

🧠 FINAL FULL RACE SUMMARY (HORSE BY HORSE)
Wonderful Everyday (IRE)

Goliath Du Berlais × Daring Rose × Al Namix

🔥 Best pure NHF pedigree in the race

Sire: explosive NHF strike-rate

Dam: elite NHF A/E and ROI

Trainer angle: Mullins doesn’t waste bumper runs

Pedigree overlay: +3.5%

➡️ Profile: Proper bumper mare, strong finishing power
➡️ Concern: Not a big price — more class than value

Tiktok Casey (IRE)

Poets Word × Black Money × Black Sam Bellamy

🧬 Best overall pedigree overlay in the field (+8.5%)

Poets Word: excellent NHF sire stats

Damsire + dam both profitable

Market likely underestimates pedigree strength

➡️ Profile: Serious NHF type hiding behind modest form/odds
➡️ Concern: Needs to actually show it on track — but pedigree screams go

Brosna Shine

No Risk At All × Baby Shine × King’s Theatre

Dam is elite (25% win, 55% place)

King’s Theatre damsire = classic NH stamina

Less speed than top two, more grinder

Pedigree overlay: +2.0%

➡️ Profile: Honest, strong, likely to stay on
➡️ Concern: Might lack the turn of foot to win unless ground tests others

Celestial Tune (IRE)

Maxios × Sylvertune × Green Tune

Dam line doing the heavy lifting

Maxios solid but overbet in NHF

Reliable, but not explosive

Pedigree overlay: +2.5%

➡️ Profile: Place horse, galloper
➡️ Concern: Ceiling might already be known

Araminta (FR)

French Fifteen × Eaux Fortes × Walk In The Park

Nicely balanced French NH pedigree

Good place profile, less win power

Pedigree overlay: +1.0%

➡️ Profile: Solid NHF performer
➡️ Concern: Hard to see her beating the top pedigrees unless others underperform

Others (summary)

Lilannbee: future hurdler

Royal Hillsborough: dam trying to rescue poor sire

Moonverrin: wrong race type

Dawn Of Light: grinder, not a bumper mare

🏆 FINAL TOP 3 SELECTIONS
🥇 Wonderful Everyday (IRE) – Most Likely Winner

Best overall NHF pedigree + trainer intent

Strong dam + explosive sire

If this runs to pedigree, it wins

🥈 Tiktok Casey (IRE) – Best Value / Upside Play

Highest pedigree overlay in the race

Market likely underrates her

If you want one to outperform odds, this is it

🥉 Brosna Shine – Solid Place / Each-Way Type

Elite dam

Will stay on when others flatten

Less sexy, very dependable
 
1535 Carlisle Smart Decision

Comes into this race in very good form but has another rise in the ratings to deal with.
This will be its third handicap, and its rating has risen from 115 to 122. Today’s jockey has been onboard for the other two so the rises will be true in the respect of any claim.
A 7lbs rise since its first handicap win but more importantly will be its position in the handicap.
Its first handicap win was at Market Rasen, a Class 4 0-115 over 2m2f on good/soft. It was closer to the top of that handicap and carried 11st 9lbs. The average OR of that race was 108.0. Nothing has come out of that race and won.
The next was at Haydock, a class 3 0-135 over 2m on good/soft. It was bottom of that handicap carrying 10st 8lbs and getting 10lbs from the winner. The average OR of that race was 124.1.
Steps back down into Class 4 today and splits the distances going over 2m 1f. It is a 0-120 race on good/soft with an average OR of 111.3. It’s allotted weight today is 112st 2lbs so it will run off 11st 11lbs and will be a t the top end of the handicap.
This will be the largest weight it’s had on its back and it doesn’t get the concessions it has enjoyed previously.
I prefer Haarar in this race and it comes here after a decent win at Haydock over 2m 3f. It has gone up 6lbs for that run but it will be in receipt of 4lbs from the selection. Quicker on the speed ratings it wouldn’t surprise me if this one led them round, trying to take it from the front.
I couldn’t write off Medieval Gold, given the Trainer/Jockey combo over the last 5 years with hurdlers being 12/44 for 24 pts profit at BSP. Handicap wise that becomes 7/25 for 21 pts profit at BSP
If you accept that Medieval Gold has a chance, then a lightly raced That One has to come into consideration as it now has a 6lb swing in its favour.

Smart Decision looks too short for me in this field and its position in the Handicap will be too much in my belief.
 
Lay of the Day: 1407 Sedgefield Huit Reflets
We go to the well for the third time with this one and hopefully it’s not once too often.
Its Chase record is 1/9 and the win was here, over 2 miles off a mark of 83.
It’s had 2 runs after that win, both at 2m 3f and both off marks of 89.
Readily beaten in the first run and was well fancied when it came up short last time out.
It was in receipt of 9lbs last time out from the winner but couldn’t make up sufficient ground to pass.
Today’s race is a repeat of its last one as far as Class, grade, going, distance and rating are concerned.
It couldn’t take advantage of its position in the weights that day so why will it be different today?
There is a strange anomaly here with the Sire.
Sires record the last 2 years with horses aged 9 or over, when going over obstacles is 1/38.
Over the last 5 years with Chasers aged 9 the record is 3/35.
History suggest they don’t get better with age, but Huit Reflets won in December 2025 as an 8 year old, so does 6 weeks make a difference.
Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 3/53 and Chase wise that becomes 1/13.
I’m told he’s in form as his 30 day record with Horses being placed is 10/32.
But the win column is empty at 0/32 and Chase wise that becomes 0/9.
As a combination the Trainer/Jockey haven’t had a winner since 27th December 2025 and they are on a losing run of 30.
I don’t see why it should take this and I’ll oppose him again.
 
Lay of the Day and a bit lengthy in the write so it will probably saunter home !! 1425 Doncaster I’m A Lumberjack
Hurdle record of 2/7 and both wins came in Class 4 last season.
Moved up to Handicaps for this season and allocated a mark of 120 in its first one.
That first effort was over 3 miles, in a Class 3 0-135, and it didn’t appear to stay.
They dropped it back to 2m5f next time, again in a Class 3, where it weakened towards the end.
Both races its mark was 120 and at Newbury.
It’s been dropped back again today to 2m 3f, in a Class 3 0-130, but its mark has gone up 3lbs for the last run. It must also race on softer going than its previous 2 efforts.
Whilst the drop back in distance appears it may help its cause, the rise in the ratings and softer going may counter that.
Sire over the last 5 years at the Course has a NH record of 1/27. Hurdles wise it becomes 1/14.
Over the same period the overall Hurdle record is 66/693. If we look at the data in relation to Class, there is a ceiling that is rarely breached.
Out of the 66 winners, the record in Class 3 and above is 8/96 and in Class 3 3/41.
The record in Class4/5 is 58/597.
It can produce winners above Class 4 but these are the rarity as opposed to the norm.
If we look at Handicaps, then the figures drop significantly.
Overall record in all classes is 17/155 and in Class 3 or above its 1/17.
Minor point is that Hurdlers wearing Hoods the last 5 years are 1/17, so not a piece of equipment that appears to work on the progeny.
Breeding raises a question over Course and Class for me.
Trainer at the Course under NH code the last 5 years is 12/82, but he hasn’t had a winner here since February 2024. The losing run sits at only 12 and 9 of these were Hurdlers.
The Hurdles record in that period is 7/49, but the last winner was in December 2023 and that losing run is 16.
Trainer/Jockey combo over the last 5 years at the course with Hurdlers is 1/17.
Storming George comes here after competing at Class 1 last time but was given a sound beating that day. However, its 2/2 at the Course and has won on the going. This is its first Handicap and its dropped 2lbs in the rating after the Class 1 run.
Geromino is the old timer, but he’s back at a Course he likes, 2/3, and he has won off 128 and 126 so is handicapped for a better performance if it chooses to turn up.
As a package the data points towards a lay and at the price being touted it’s worth opposing for me.
 
Lay of the Day: On my site I took on Aisling Oscar last night, got my fingers burned but sometimes you just have to acknowledge the effort of a horse. Looked like I had it beat but it dug in and found more. Not a world beater but if you own it you're getting a lot of fun out of it.
Tricky one today and one that could break the winning run:

1412 Wolverhampton Woodraff

Horse has an AW record of 1/11 and the win came at Newcastle over 7 furlongs in September 2025.
Today’s Jockey was onboard and the official mark was 48 but he was able to claim 3lbs so it won off 45. As a result of the win, it was moved into the 50’s and it has struggled to repeat the form and races off 50 here. They do bring the claimer back today so it will race off 47.
The question will be whether this course is going to suit. It has raced here once before but was beaten 4 lengths.
Sire over the last 5 years at the course has a record of 4/47, but the last winner was back in November 2024 and the losing run is 19.
CD wise the record becomes 1/12 and the winner was April 2024. That losing run is just 7.
Given that the Sire is slightly negative for me, there needs to be something to counter that.
That would normally come in the form of the Jockey…
Record at the Course the last 5 years is 0/52 and CD wise that becomes 0/13 and 1 place.
Price being touted in the press is 6/4 which looks too short to me given the above.
It may be the stable knows but at that price it has to be opposed in my view.
 
Wonder how much RIskintheground will get dropped for that? He's currently on 140 so should get dropped at least a couple or three to 137 and then he's back on his winning Cheltenham mark from last April over 2m4 on better ground - not that they have done anything wrong just upping him in trip on ground he doesn't really enjoy.........ahem........just saying, Danny!!
 

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