chaumi
Well-known member
Plenty of racing on today. On first scan, some noteworthy (to varying degrees) runners at Lingfield, Chelmsford, Wincanton, Ayr, maybe Thurles, and one or two to watch at Deauville.
As always, actual bets will heavily depend on odds relative to perceived chances and competition strength.
Early thoughts...
Kinneston Nick's 6 or 7 a-side team might nick one goal on home turf, with Cavalier Du Luy (2.43 Ayr) looking fair nailed on first 4. Will have to see how far odds-on he is for that. No absolute foregone conclusion, though, and I might well bottle it.
There are one or two other old favourites in likely single (but backable) figures who, at their best, might be OK if the BF markets have it 'wrong'.
And the usual brace of left-field big-priced possibles spread through the day and across the tracks. More on those later.
+ Can Donald win another bumper? We shall see.
But...I really really really need to do some work as well. Deadline is looming, done a lot of the prep work but still plenty to do. Just get on with it, Chaumi, ffs!!
********************
1.20 Lingfield Jon Portman's Hello Luna looked OK for a small bet at around 25. Finished well to get 2nd.
1.30 Thurles Couldn't see past the Affinisea Cowper Hall but not big enough for the win and was taking a small wrong-way walk in the market for no obvious reason. Right choice to leave it alone, beat 3 out.
1.33 Kim Bailey's Coolanna won impressively enough at Uttoxeter and looked good for this. Too short for me, though. No bet. Thought she was impressively tough to win this, looked beat about 4 out but just kept fighting.
1.43 Ayr First proper bet. Eloi Du Puy was a very backable 17.5 the win and not far off 3 for 4 places. Tried to make most, looked potentially swallowed at the last, but fought hard up the run-in to grab 2nd behind the easy winner. Nice run and a positive return.
2.03 Wincanton Carrigmoorna Rowan was a healthyish-looking 7.2, slightly bigger than I expected. Every chance in this on that 2nd to Kalhandrion in a fast run race at Huntingdon 22nd Nov. James Davies up a (perceived) bonus. Went off in front as I'd hoped but couldn't get away from the ultimate winner and eventually finished a fairly weary-looking 4th. Could well be worth another chance on better ground, maybe later in the spring and back in class 5.
2.33 Wincanton The Masked Marvel runner - For Old Times Sake - looked moderately interesting here at around 17 in the 4 place market. But left it to watch. Came in a fair bit to 11 before the off. Typical-looking McManus run, don't think he was ever asked for much. Times Sake will be interesting further down the line one day.
2.43 Ayr Cavalier Du Luy. Bottled it, wasn't going to risk 1.7 odd first 3 or even 1.25 first 4. The Irish horses looked too strong. Both of them. Right call, Cavalier losing a couple of places on the run in. Nick will be disappointed. But will get another chance over further to show this was 'wrong'.
***El Cairos If you're on for the Supreme, you're going to be dumping in pants at the last in March! Fortunately, I'm not, Talk The Talk will win it.
3.13 Ayr Nick's two - Gaillimh a Stor and Theme Tune - hadn't done much this season but, as a consequence, have dropped a fair way. This looked a winnable race for one of them, at least. Took 26 and 100 respectively, + 100 Pure Sirloin 15 mins pre-race. They each went heavily green before the start. ** No good any of them, and a mistake deserting old Shoeshine Boy. What a battler!
3.32 Deauville The Almanzor runner - Gimanzor - looked OK for this at just over 12 for a small interest. Tried, but not strong enough.
3.33 Wincanton Initial thoughts were My Silver Lining would have a great chance here. But the more I looked at it, the more any of 6 could win. Left it alone, thinking in the end this would be too tough for Silver at only just over 3 miles. The right call.
Tempted to have a go on Dain Ma Nutin in Bahrain, but 9s when I looked not good enough.
3.43 Ayr Netywell looked good here at 15.5 ten mins before. Another one nicely green by the off. Ran well enough to be a close-ish 4th, but really this class 4 should have been very winnable. Not so sure Netywell will win another race.
The closing Ayr bumper Left Donald's alone, 3 or 4 of the others looking like they could be anything. Thought the Skelton horse was worth taking on, but couldn't come to a conclusion with what. Left it, another good call with the Skelton runner pissing it.
******************
So, overall a small loss on the day, but not overly painful given no winners.
Clumsy jump of the day : El Cairos
Best 'win' of the day : Eloi Du Puy on the places
Best winner of the day : Shoeshine Boy (even though not with my cash this time). Donald must be chuffed.
Disappointment of the day : Netywell
Dodge of the day : Two, actually - Cavalier Du Luy and My Silver Lining
Miss of the day : Coolanna **Edit Oh, and Dain Ma Nutin won in Bahrain.
On to tomorrow.
As always, actual bets will heavily depend on odds relative to perceived chances and competition strength.
Early thoughts...
Kinneston Nick's 6 or 7 a-side team might nick one goal on home turf, with Cavalier Du Luy (2.43 Ayr) looking fair nailed on first 4. Will have to see how far odds-on he is for that. No absolute foregone conclusion, though, and I might well bottle it.
There are one or two other old favourites in likely single (but backable) figures who, at their best, might be OK if the BF markets have it 'wrong'.
And the usual brace of left-field big-priced possibles spread through the day and across the tracks. More on those later.
+ Can Donald win another bumper? We shall see.
But...I really really really need to do some work as well. Deadline is looming, done a lot of the prep work but still plenty to do. Just get on with it, Chaumi, ffs!!
********************
1.20 Lingfield Jon Portman's Hello Luna looked OK for a small bet at around 25. Finished well to get 2nd.
1.30 Thurles Couldn't see past the Affinisea Cowper Hall but not big enough for the win and was taking a small wrong-way walk in the market for no obvious reason. Right choice to leave it alone, beat 3 out.
1.33 Kim Bailey's Coolanna won impressively enough at Uttoxeter and looked good for this. Too short for me, though. No bet. Thought she was impressively tough to win this, looked beat about 4 out but just kept fighting.
1.43 Ayr First proper bet. Eloi Du Puy was a very backable 17.5 the win and not far off 3 for 4 places. Tried to make most, looked potentially swallowed at the last, but fought hard up the run-in to grab 2nd behind the easy winner. Nice run and a positive return.
2.03 Wincanton Carrigmoorna Rowan was a healthyish-looking 7.2, slightly bigger than I expected. Every chance in this on that 2nd to Kalhandrion in a fast run race at Huntingdon 22nd Nov. James Davies up a (perceived) bonus. Went off in front as I'd hoped but couldn't get away from the ultimate winner and eventually finished a fairly weary-looking 4th. Could well be worth another chance on better ground, maybe later in the spring and back in class 5.
2.33 Wincanton The Masked Marvel runner - For Old Times Sake - looked moderately interesting here at around 17 in the 4 place market. But left it to watch. Came in a fair bit to 11 before the off. Typical-looking McManus run, don't think he was ever asked for much. Times Sake will be interesting further down the line one day.
2.43 Ayr Cavalier Du Luy. Bottled it, wasn't going to risk 1.7 odd first 3 or even 1.25 first 4. The Irish horses looked too strong. Both of them. Right call, Cavalier losing a couple of places on the run in. Nick will be disappointed. But will get another chance over further to show this was 'wrong'.
***El Cairos If you're on for the Supreme, you're going to be dumping in pants at the last in March! Fortunately, I'm not, Talk The Talk will win it.
3.13 Ayr Nick's two - Gaillimh a Stor and Theme Tune - hadn't done much this season but, as a consequence, have dropped a fair way. This looked a winnable race for one of them, at least. Took 26 and 100 respectively, + 100 Pure Sirloin 15 mins pre-race. They each went heavily green before the start. ** No good any of them, and a mistake deserting old Shoeshine Boy. What a battler!
3.32 Deauville The Almanzor runner - Gimanzor - looked OK for this at just over 12 for a small interest. Tried, but not strong enough.
3.33 Wincanton Initial thoughts were My Silver Lining would have a great chance here. But the more I looked at it, the more any of 6 could win. Left it alone, thinking in the end this would be too tough for Silver at only just over 3 miles. The right call.
Tempted to have a go on Dain Ma Nutin in Bahrain, but 9s when I looked not good enough.
3.43 Ayr Netywell looked good here at 15.5 ten mins before. Another one nicely green by the off. Ran well enough to be a close-ish 4th, but really this class 4 should have been very winnable. Not so sure Netywell will win another race.
The closing Ayr bumper Left Donald's alone, 3 or 4 of the others looking like they could be anything. Thought the Skelton horse was worth taking on, but couldn't come to a conclusion with what. Left it, another good call with the Skelton runner pissing it.
******************
So, overall a small loss on the day, but not overly painful given no winners.
Clumsy jump of the day : El Cairos
Best 'win' of the day : Eloi Du Puy on the places
Best winner of the day : Shoeshine Boy (even though not with my cash this time). Donald must be chuffed.
Disappointment of the day : Netywell
Dodge of the day : Two, actually - Cavalier Du Luy and My Silver Lining
Miss of the day : Coolanna **Edit Oh, and Dain Ma Nutin won in Bahrain.
On to tomorrow.
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