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I see the RP is on about Longchamp Prix Vermeille winner Aventure re the Arc, but historically the York Juddmonte/International has been a better trial/pointer race for the Arc

Nah from what you've said it's more cos you are cheap & you are getting too old to try climbing the fence... 🤣

Well I was right to be wary of Whirl coming from uk/ire races

Blurgh I made a mistake and only included races where runners today ran in the last renewal, the full set is much bigger, since 2000, 286 runners coming from UK/IRE races and 30 (10.5%) winners

1525 Longchamp Qatar Prix Vermeille (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) 3yo+ : Prize Money £283338.84 I have Whirl top rated & Gezora almost level on my ratings and much as I have an aversion to going against odds on shots Whirl has a negative against it in that UK/IRE...

I won't be giving the Arc any serious thought til I get the decs on Thurs 2nd Oct

By the time the Arc happens the first weekend in Oct I want to have all the French Group and Listed races set up in my target trial analysis system, but I've only done about 16 out of more like 116, so a lot of work to do, but will be interesting to see the hard numbers re real Arc trials and...

see if it wins tomorrow first, personally I think Gezora has a lot going for it plus the course experience

Are all of these tomorrow meant to be Arc 'trials' ? Longchamp Prix Foy Flat Stakes Longchamp Prix Niel Flat Stakes Longchamp Prix Vermeille Flat Stakes Longchamp Prix du Moulin Flat Stakes Because I've ran the numbers cross referencing the runners from each year and since 2000 only 2 horses...

So fav Raaheeb wins, trainer Owen Burrows was my 2nd top for trainer course stats and out of the group had the best FTO 2yr old stats. I don't do dosage analysis as yet, I wonder how that looked pre race.

her course stats and that of her jockey are decent but so are a few others, but trainer (Ed Walker) and jockey (Tom Marquand) for Norman Invasion have the best course stats out of them all.

that would imply you have additional rationale as to why this race is a go for her

I wouldn't be backing anything based on any of the trainers pure FTO 2yr old stats

won't tomorrow be rather after the event?

Doing real life work stuff, if I get a suitable break at lunchtime then yes, but over what time span to check? What about the two runners with prev form?

Interesting that when Wayne is on what is likely the first string of a race with multiple O'Brien entries , he does just as well as Ryan, all be it over a smaller sample

So for comparison I did the same stats for Ryan Moore over the last 365 days Number of rides = 468 Number of wins = 114 Strike rate % = 24.4% Number of rides with no AP O'Brien runners in the race unless ridden by Ryan = 359 Number of wins with no AP O'Brien runners in the race unless ridden...

Haven't gone as far as creating a 'special case' jockey prb2 function, but went for a more quick and dirty option of just calculating win strike rates over the last 365 days for Wayne Lordan Number of rides = 447 Number of wins = 79 Strike rate % = 17.7% Number of rides with no AP O'Brien...

I'm pondering how to construct the special case code for Wayne Lordan where he's either on his own or if there's more than him riding for o'brien, his ride is the shortest odds

such as my trainer prb2 , jockey prb2 , trainerjockey prb2 functions, are generic and work for any over any time period, but to do this will require special exception code, a ballache but it's likely to scratch at my brain until I know the answer....