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Thanks for the updates; although I completely forgot to check the thread this morning. I assume that the confirmations aren't available to Joe Public? In any case I'm guessing that Bet365 suspend cash-out anyway (not sure about PP/BF who aren't as keen)?

Bet should be refunded if a horse is balloted out.

Small bet on Russian Emporer EW 4 places. Would be interested in Stone Age if I could bet into the local pool where I think the odds will be better but not sure if there's anywhere to do this (tote are showing placepot only for HK).

TF out for the season after a setback (2nd hand info but I assume that the person I got it from can read).

Fences are also a lot softer these days and there is good prizemoney to be won in small field novice chases.

Except they didn't. They said it may have been the ground, but the inference was that it was softer than ideal.

Chantry House won't be running. Rehearsal an outside possibility but most likely the Many Clouds (from the man himself somewhere on the web today).

Going to have go respectfully disagree with this. The times recorded today indicate that the ground was as described and horses were pulled out of an abundance of caution that running first time out on quick NH ground increases the chance of them coming back slightly lame. That's probably true...

Agreed but APT has been very carefully campaigned, was a class above the rest last season and NH training has progressed a decent amount recently meaning that I thought there was a better chance of him staying sound compared to some of the one and done types. The run looked too bad to be true...

A Plus Tard 4/1 Gold Cup (365/BF/PP) 1000 Win

Fitness is always a big factor in these early season races. Also hard to bet on the chase without knowing whether Hitman runs or goes to Haydock (first preference is the Graduation chase there, depends on ground).

Haydock was supposed to miss the worst of it but to get the full picture when there are these narrowish bands of rain sweeping across it's probably best to use the scroll feature on the met office site, with the caveat that the further into the future you go the more uncertainty there is; mea...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/newton-le-willows/wa12-9/daily-weather-forecast/325642?day=1 Far better indication; 'raining all day' tells us nothing of the actual level of precipitation expected. 11mm forecast to fall today (day+night), 5mm tomorrow. Accompanied by a strong breeze. Clear...

A Plus Tard can be backed at 4-1 for the Gold Cup. Let that sink in. I'd lay Jonbon at 2-1 if I had the money to do so; there's just so much that can happen between now and March. Even putting aside injury there's no saying he won't step up in trip and the ground is clearly an unknown at this...

True, but I think NH trainers have realised that the longer they keep their horses racing the longer the training fees keep rolling in without needing to find new owners or have their existing ones spend more on sales fees. So if they aren't dissuading their jockey's from bumping finishes then...

2-1 is crazy though this early in the season; the over-round on some of the antepost books is shocking and the prices look like NRNB odds. Those odds imply that if the competition run as expected between now and the festival that Jonbon would go off evens on the day when you factor in the...

Let's not forget why NH flat races are called bumpers; it's visually unappealing for sure. I do think that a fair number of trainers would tell their jockeys to stop riding that way if they believed it was hindering the horse's longevity; but those instructions may be ignored for bigger races...

It's fine; have a feeling Oscar Elite might win something at a decent price which would be double bonus points as a dark horse. For next season I have a suggestion to make things easier: Compile the list from oddschecker. Take all horses at 20-1 or less for the festival and any big NH...

I saw Jinny's post but I'll just keep things simple and choose another dark horse in list 1 and keep list 2 as it was last night. List 1: Allaho A Plus Tard Constitution Hill Facile Vega Galopin Des Champs Honeysuckle Jonbon Shishkin Zanahiyr Dark Horse: Oscar Elite (Joe Tizzard) List 2: A...

Capodanno is on the list (no. 40)