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  1. D

    Some race trends

    Regarding the 5-y-os thing. Worth looking at how many of the 5-y-os that have done well in the Champion Stakes are geldings. Obviously they aren't allowed to enter the Arc, and likely that most entires that were Arc winning standard at 3/4 have been retired by the time they are 5, so it's mostly...
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    Champions Day

    The ground on the course that is likely to be used is good, good to soft in places. The good to soft places are mainly on the round course.
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    Ante-Post - Flat 2016

    20+ runner £150K handicap off a mark of 113 'a lot easier'. I can't have it. Hoof It won the Stewards Cup off 111 and ran to 125 on Timeform, he also ran to 125 when beaten in a 3-way photo for the Haydock Sprint Cup. To place in the Balmoral, Librisa Breeze would have to run to a level of...
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    The Cesarewitch (and the other races)

    If St Michel was still available at 14s/16s, then I think you'd be less inclined to be worried about the draw, but at 6/1, you can see why folks are prepared to take him on. Draw advantage can be displayed different ways, one way is in average distance beaten which can obviously be then...
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    2016 Ayr Gold Cup

    Bit of a rethink on this, results on the straight track are pointing towards middle to low being advantaged. Nameitwhatyoulike forms the basis of the main bet, and absolutely thriving sprinter of late, and like the fact that excellent claimer Adam McNamara takes over on him. The 5 lb is sure to...
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    Forum horse connections

    Great to see Paul, well done. Just had so much more zest about him compared to last time. RSA here we come!
  7. D

    The thoughts of the handicappers.

    I really like St Michel for the Ces, but the BHA bod really should have spotted that Sweet Selection's new BHA mark following the Doncaster Cup leaves her potentially even better in than St Michel.
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    2016 Ayr Gold Cup

    Can very much see the case for Maximus Magnus from a handicapping point of view, and the yard couldn't be in better form. My concern with regards to him is whether he'll be able to make all in a race as competitive as this, or whether he ends up getting taken on by one of the other pace forcers...
  9. D

    Champions Weekend

    48 hr decs for this wonderful meeting. About time the Irish came into the twentieth century and adopted this practice across all Flat meetings.
  10. D

    TV coverage

    The problem comes from using expertise from the likes of Fitzgerald incorrectly. No good asking him about the form of the race last time, it's not what he's there for, other people can answer that. You should ask the ex-jockey to see the race from a riding point of view. 'If you were riding the...
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    Ante-Post - Flat 2016

    First 2 named would definitely look more 10f horses, so hopefully it all works out as it should.
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    Ante-Post - Flat 2016

    Wouldn't dream of putting anyone off at the prices on this horse, but note of caution that Banksea is also entered in a 10f early closing valuable handicap at Newbury that the yard have targeted. Think they went there with the likes of Previs and Forte Dei Marmi rather than the Cambridgeshire...
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    York Ebor Meeting; (a proper good meeting :))

    A great day is this. Bit if a scattergun approach but in brief, think Robot Boy looks a good bet in the first. Is inconsistent, but has come down to a really good mark and if he can run like he did at Ascot a couple of starts back, he'll be bang there. First time blinkers could provide a bit of...
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    What are you backing Today?

    This Fethiye Boy looks interesting in the 5.50 at Bath. Showed impressive speed on first 2 starts on softer than good but didn't see his race out. Traded at 3.0 on debut and 1.77 last time. Every chance of him strengthening up during a break and the yard have had a few winners since he was last...
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    Horses to follow - Flat

    Just bear in mind Marsha isn't currently entered in the Nunthorpe. Goes to King George at Goodwood I think, and may be supplemented for Nunthorpe if going well there I believe.
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    Royal Ascot 2016

    Think this is spot on. Timeform have a form and time rating both of which are 127, and both are on the defensive side. Would love to see her go and post a 130 figure in the Morny or whereever she turns up next, but I'm just a tad skeptical.
  17. D

    Royal Ascot 2016

    Lancelot du Lac at 50s for the King's Stand will do me, splitting the bet across those paying 1/5 odds first 5 and 1/4 odds first 4. Yard are in excellent form, doesn't have much at all to find with the vast majority of the best of his efforts, particularly his placed runs in handicaps in Dubai...
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    The Oaks

    Getting away with it for me, is a reference to how much she could afford to run below form and still win. She's a low 120s miler, where it usually takes a 115/116 effort to win a typical Oaks, I wouldn't be surprised if you could win it this year with slightly less. Therefore I think she could...
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    The Derby

    US Army Ranger is a bigger price now than straight after Chester, yet the Derby if anything now looks weaker. Sometimes difficult with horses like this where the temptation has been to be against them on price for so long, when as it stands now, 5/1 doesn't looks particularly short at all.
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    Ante-Post - Flat 2016

    Don't have my notes to hand with regards official ratings for recent Hunt Cups, but remember when looking at it last week and thinking he was a shade of odds against to make the line-up from his mark. Obviously could try and get a penalty with would guarantee him a shot.
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