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I think the general sentiment of your post is you can't always trust AI. And that's agreed (and why I started with 'fwiw') But this above 'undersells' the value of AI in general and might (I will say is, but maybe not in this specific case) be misleading. AI (a good AI and/or one that has been...

fwiw here's what my AI said... Sha Tin is a very distinctive racecourse, so there’s no perfect European equivalent — but several tracks share key characteristics such as long straights, fair galloping layouts, and an emphasis on stamina and strong finishers. Here’s the clearest comparison...

Quote Harry... "I take the ride on Carlenrig, who ran really well first time out at Chepstow and he’s come on nicely since then. Conman John looks the one to beat but the three-mile trip should suit us here and hopefully he’ll run well. He’s a chaser in the making. As is Big Cadillac. He ran...

Big Cadillac 3.00 Chelt This race looks strong, as you'd expect from a Cheltenham Grade 2 novice. Lucinda's looks a tank, most of the others could be anything. But Big Cadillac has been on the drift, now out to 33s in places, and 28 generally. Bits of mid 30s on the exchange. There's no...

...and he says he can't split his two

The run of Torn and Frayed tells you all you want to know about the ground.

+ The bottom line. If you just look at it from a pure figures perspective, just for illustration purposes... If you only back 33-1 or higher shots, and (icing on the cake) you're getting 55 upwards towards 240 on plenty of those on the exchange. And you 'know' you'll get one of those winners...

DO and Danny gave perfectly good examples/rationale. And, as Danny says, it doesn't take hours of form study. It does take some time, ofc, which we all know. But then, many (but not all) of us embrace the 'can I find the 50-1/33-1/7-2 etc winner of this' aspect of it. And enjoy it. Getting told...

It'll be interesting to see how the ratings hold up for these more classy races. There was a 'findable' 70-1 winner on Weds morning (in a low-level handicap), had the race won a furlong and a half out. The trainer and jockey ratings would have helped, though was about mid way down the on the...

OFC, we'll all be different on what we think makes a fair price, Dan. For me, it's just an overall picture that's formed in context. Don't think it through as such, it's like driving or riding a bike, init. If I thought 5-1 was fair, and Hoe really only had 1-3 to beat, I might well be all over...

Hoe Hoe Hoe Has been held up at the back of all/most of the recent 3 mile/3+ races. They tried to do the same in the PP, and it appears the effort needed to close in that race from the back contributed to the mistake - a mistake that possibly cost 2nd place. It'll be interesting to see if...

11th Dec The closing bumper on the Warwick card. Taking a small chance on ruling out the Skelton runner, there looked to be no more than 3 or 4 in this. And, with the BP runner too big at around 16s on the exchange, there seemed only two logical bets. The Poet's Word favourite looked...

10th Dec Hexham Sue Smith ran Mad Mag again over 2 miles. But... This time on heavy ground over Hexham's stiff track. In a 5 runner race, where only 3 could win. And the two at the top of the market looked eminently beatable. Around 14s made this a bet. Sadly Mag couldn't pull off the win...

Don't think PN has given up on Tahmuras yet. Would have needed the run LTO, and maybe the trainer underestimated how much. This would seem a likely (early-mid) season target. And is languishing at the bottom of the odds table at around 66 (and in the low 100s BF). Chance he could still carry a...

7th Dec Huntingdon 12.42 Been watching Mulholland's Bel Ombre for a couple of races, with an eye to a handicap later on. Didn't look to have any chance here against yet another Bailey monster maiden + 3 or 4 from the other usual suspects, though only traded around 50s pre-race. The Bailey...

Among the heavier outsiders, one that might be just about ready to show a hand is Just For One, currently generally a fluctuating 40s-50s. The step up a half mile can help, + reportedly ran a little green LTO Karl Thornton's is on my radar, but don't think it'll be today. Siege I think will...

No, you just had to know someone who was there :cool: I just remembered I stuck Twig in ew 4 folds with the Soldier, Shantu, Afadil, and Tanganyika still to go. Ned Tanner let me down, but not by that far.

Well, after the two videos, how could you not back them!

6th Dec Sadown Methinks we shouldn't underestimate the run of Soldier Reeves in the listed 2 mile novice at Sandown. No 'too keen' excuses this time (at least to my eyes, other more experienced eyes may see it differently), seemed to be settled comfortably last and made a threatening move when...

6th Dec Wetherby 11.55 A near 3 miles novice run on close to proper soft-looking ground. Not too hard to look further than the three at the top of the market at first glance. But lurking in the 200s-300s was a Joe Tickle Malinas runner - The Moonlight Man. A point winner on heavy ground...