I'm convinced we're in for a shock here having gone through it again and again. I think the Ballydoyle pair are appalling prices, particularly RVW. I am considering place laying them both. Delegator was impressive in the Craven but I'm not sure this race and the underfoot conditions are going to suit.
One stat which I mentioned last year is that there is nearly always a longshot in the places...
2008: Stubbs Art, 3rd at 100/1
2007: Cockney Rebel, 1st at 25/1. Vital Equine, 2nd at 33/1.
2006: Olympian Odyssey, 3rd at 33/1
2005: Rebel Rebel, 2nd at 100/1. Kandidate, 3rd at 100/1.
2004: Azamour, 3rd at 25/1
2003: Zafeen, 2nd at 33/1. Norse Dancer, 3rd at 100/1.
2002: Redback, 3rd at 25/1
I've got 2 lines into where the longshot will come from at the moment. I think people are forgetting that the Dewhurst is by far the strongest 2 year old trial for the Guineas over recent years and whilst the winner is absent, he had Lord Shanakill and Finjaan only whiskers behind him. I have found pros and cons with both but at 20/1 and 25/1, they are much better value than the absolutely absurd 4/1 on Rip Van Winkle who has no grounds to make up the deficit whatsoever, Aidan O'Brien is one of the best trainers in the world but to instantly assume he'll get that much improvement out of him considering Finjaan, Ashram and LS are bound to have improved too, is very naive.
My concern with Finjaan is that I'm not sure he'll stay the mile trip, I think he was very flattered by running up the stands rail in the Dewhurst and that passage may have made his performance look better than it was. Lord Shanakill was more of the complete package throughout the season and whilst I have little time for Karl Burke, he's done a great job with the horse, placing in the Morny and winning the Mill Reef which were decent races on the clock. I can't help thinking at the back of my mind that Guineas winners don't make their debuts getting beaten in Thirsk sprint maidens though. The other horse from the Dewhurst I like is Ashram, I think Godolphin's forced early exit from Dubai this year has helped their horses be more forward and they've had 2 winners in the last 7 days and had few other runners. Having watched the Dewhurst back a couple of times, he gets a touch outpaced early on and races wider from the rest of the runners, when Moore presses the button, the rush from getting his outpaced position seems to catch him out a bit and whilst he finishes well, he looks like he'd still improve for the run. I think I'm going to side with him out of the Dewhurst bunch.
The other horse I like having rated the Craven meeting up using both RP and Mordin standard times is Monitor Closely. He ran well at Doncaster behind the well regarded Kite Wood and was only beaten just over 3 lengths in the sales race which Donatavium which is arguably the best two year old form from last year. His time behind Nehaam over 1m2f looks good enough to play a part in this weak Group One field and whislt I've missed the boat a bit, I've had a dabble at the 33/1. I also am a bit unsure where the serious pace is going to come from which as Alun said, may favour Mastercraftsman but Monitor Closely has raced prominently in all his races and I think Munro could turn this to his tactical advantage.
Monitor Closely at 33/1
Ashram at 25/1
May throw a CFC together with those 2 and Lord Shanakill and Finjaan.
