2000 Guineas

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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Aiden O'Brien has won this almost 50% of the times it's been run since Rock of Gibraltar

So opposing him isn't exactly sensible.

That said I was never that impressed by Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion let that form down big time in the Craven

Gustav Klimt needs to improve big time on his win over Nebo and the recent win in Ireland tells us nothing other than he's fit as it fell apart around him.

Why Masar is as short as 4/1 is beyond me. The Craven was a desperate looking affair and early season form is usually rubbish.
The fact he's been thrashed a few times at 2yo doesn't inspire much confidence in this class but William Buick is one of the best out there
the yard is flying so no doubt he'll run well.

SMS is a genius but whether he can get Expert Eye to win this is a huge ask..just can't see it

Headway blew a lot of people away coming from a mile back last time but this is way different
He could be the one to pull it off if we are going to have a shock winner but not for me.

The one I like is Mark Johnston's Elarqam who won the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes
Talk about unfurnished he looked as raw as raw can be to me yet he still managed to beat some good animals easily.
With normal improvement he'd take some beating but the word is he's come on a ton since last season

I know confidence is very high but whether he will shorten up with 2 AOB horses heading the market is hard to say but I took 7.0 on the machine
.
g/l all
 
Fav is drifting apparently and money coming for Masar (agree with above comments on this one)& Saxon Warrior (I am never a huge fan of the Racing Post Trophy winners) but I did like the way Gustav Klimpt won regardless of what he beat and he could improve a ton. Expert Eye was a standout in the paddock when he won at Goodwood last year. If SMS has got him back and the horse hasn't been hit by the harsh East Anglian spring, he could easily bounce back. Can't comment on Elarqam as I have forgotten what he looked like and my Sky decided to down tools during the OS.
 
Thought I would check the trends for the 2000 -

16 out of the last 16 had top 3 finish lto, so that would rule out Cardsharp, Raid & Rajasinghe
15/16 had won at least 50% of their starts, strike a line through - Headway, Massa, Nebo & Tip to Win
15/16 Had never finished lower than 4th in career, out goes, Gustav Klimit, Murillo & Expert Eye

Leaving us with - Saxon Warrior, Roaring Lion, James Garfield & Elarqam

15/16 made their racecourse debut at a G1 track (So Garfield would be out)

The 3 left follow match these trends too -

16/16 had a 75%+ W-P S/R
15/16 had at least previously placed at group level
14/16 had previously won at 7f or 8f
14/16 had 2+ previous victories
14/16 ran in a Group race last time out
14/16 were born on or before the 26th of March
13/16 had won on their racecourse debut

Follow the old adage and never oppose an unbeaten horse ... Saxon Warrior & Elarqam with an e/w on the Roaring Lion

I still believe Gustav Klimit to buck the trend and a nice double with Audible in the Kentucky is my holiday money, I hope
 
I think Gustav Klimt,Saxon Warrior & Elarqam will all be better over further and it will be interesting to see if Cardsharp is let loose on the lead and completely sacrificed to help Elarqam.I could see it being an attritional race with the winner being held up -maybe Headway-or something that touches a big price in running.
 
Can't knock that.
Stunning horse in the preliminaries. Masar a fair run in third. The second ran it's socks off - what a great result for Roger Teal.
(Gustav Klimpt is disappointingly small)
 
LUKE said:
First triple crown winner since Nijinsky.
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Very possibly, Luke.

It looked a proper race and when I saw him make his move I involuntarily muttered, "Oh fvck..." Even so, the chasers made him pull out the stops so I think it might go down as one of the really top renewals.
 
Could be a Derby horse but after that last debacle do you think they would go St Leger? surely not? Plus you have to ask has this been a good Guineas?
 
Very nice performance.

Elarqam will improve from that too.

300th Group one winner for O'Brien.
 
Saw that.

I thought he would be 3rd or 4th. The experience look needed. That with the potential step up in trip too.
 
Frankel said:
Saw that.

I thought he would be 3rd or 4th. The experience look needed. That with the potential step up in trip too.
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I suspect if Donnacha had held on to him a bit longer he would have been more impressive . A big horse having his first run and looking most in need of it in the paddock no surprise if he was getting tired at the end.

He quickened impressively and all the good horses including the underrated runner up followed him home.

What happened to Elarqam shows the risk of turning up for the 2000 with insufficient experience.

My only worry about Epsom is whether such a big horse will necessarily handle the track.
 
Lovely horse but surely won't handle Epsom.

6 lengths between the first nine and the time was nothing special (0.4 sec faster than the winner of the last race who carried 7lb more). Even money for the Derby is laughable.
 
Anadin said:
...

Leaving us with - Saxon Warrior, Roaring Lion, James Garfield & Elarqam

15/16 made their racecourse debut at a G1 track (So Garfield would be out)

The 3 left follow match these trends too -

...

Follow the old adage and never oppose an unbeaten horse ... Saxon Warrior & Elarqam with an e/w on the Roaring Lion

I still believe Gustav Klimit to buck the trend and a nice double with Audible in the Kentucky is my holiday money, I hope
Click to expand...

Good working, shame about the conclusion :)
 
archie said:
Lovely horse but surely won't handle Epsom.

6 lengths between the first nine and the time was nothing special (0.4 sec faster than the winner of the last race who carried 7lb more). Even money for the Derby is laughable.
Click to expand...

Doesn't pay to laugh at Aiden O'Brien Archie.........the whole damn family seems to be gifted
 
Ardross said:
The only debacle was that Encke was trained by a doper.
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At one time I wanted to rant about this as my initial reaction was that we'd been robbed of a Triple Crown Winner.

After I sat back and thought about it I wondered whether Encke was just the Ben Johnson of the sport.

In the 100 metre sprint at the Seoul Olympics in 1988 Every single runner tested positive for banned substances.

Only Johnson was punished.

The thought also struck me when I saw Aussie Sprinters at Royal Ascot, Wes Ward 2yo's when they first turned up and also when I watched Arnold Schawarzahorsey win the Run for the roses last night. Bar him breathing fire I'm not sure what else could be done to alert the authorities.

Perhaps I'm just cynical but where there is huge amounts of money involved corruption and cheating usually go hand in hand.
 
Would agree with Archie that Even money is laughable but Saxon Warrior does look a very nice horse. I can't for the life of me figure why he was so weak in the betting earlier in the week which is what put me off.

I was on Expert eye but also fancied Gustav Klimt to go close. I think the only thing I'd say about that is I'd now be campaigning Expert eye as a 6F sprinter.

Elqarm really got upset in the stalls so you'd think he's capable of better if handling the prelims better next time. I think he'd beat Tip to win last year quite easily off the top of my head so maybe without getting himself all worked up he'd have gone close.

I wouldn't be surprised if this Guineas form overall is rubbish but that winner will probably turn out to be a very good horse over further.
 
You're probably spot on, Danny. I know for sure that the US trainer is known as "needle happy" as friends who work over there said it's common knowledge. Where huge sums of money are involved there will always be cheating and people one step ahead of the testers. Id guarantee there are practices going on in UK yards that shouldn't be and so far have gone undetected.
 
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