2021 2000 Guineas

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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The forum is likely to quieten down substantially over the coming weeks and months so I thought it might be an idea to get some debate going ahead of the individual classics.

I wasn't even aware until this morning that the Ballysax took place yesterday, which is more relevant for the Derby, obviously, but I'll start a thread for that too.

I know these threads won't appeal to a hard core of forumites but I reckon there should be enough 'Flatties' or dual-purpose Jacks-of-all-trades (like me) to keep the discussions going and on track.

We've also got the Craven meeting this week and the Newbury trials card on Sunday plus the various prepping races in Ireland.

I haven't really studied the 2000 Guineas candidates as yet but I've dipped some toes in the ante-post water going back to last summer.

I took 16/1 Battleground a few days after the Chesham and 18/1 Lucky Vega after the Phoenix. For the time being I'm happy with them.

Timeform seem quite keen on Thunder Moon while recognising the potential of Mutasaabeq (would need to be supplemented) and Noble Dynasty (currently 50/1). The latter is out tomorrow at Newmarket.

No doubt all sorts of names will be bandied about and hyped to various degrees as the trials unfold and pigeon-catching gallop rumours filter through so hopefully somewhere down the line one of us can find the winner.
 
Good idea - I love the jumps, but hate the fag end of the season when most of my winners turn into losers at the blink of an eye.


St Mark's Basilica turned the tables on Thunder Moon (and Wembley) in the Dewhurst and it’s pretty difficult to see past him and Battleground atm. No doubt things will change as the action unfolds.
 
I backed Wembley at 14s over the winter and have St Marks in a double with Clan from the Bowl. I liked the Dewhurst and feel these two are the likeliest. I also like the angle of backing the Ballydoyle 2nd or 3rd string for this race, his supposed first string always seem too short.
 
Euronymous said:
I backed Wembley at 14s over the winter and have St Marks in a double with Clan from the Bowl. I liked the Dewhurst and feel these two are the likeliest. I also like the angle of backing the Ballydoyle 2nd or 3rd string for this race, his supposed first string always seem too short.
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The brother tends to take that angle too, Euro. Has served him well down the years.
 
Indeed. Funnily enough the price diff between Battleground and St Marks is only a point on Betfair as opposed to 9/2 - 8s with the normal layers.
 
Duke Of Mantua might be worth a nibble at 66/1. Sent over for a sighter (tomorrow 2.10) he looks sure to shorten, however he performs.
 
reet hard said:
Duke Of Mantua might be worth a nibble at 66/1. Sent over for a sighter (tomorrow 2.10) he looks sure to shorten, however he performs.
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Should be a hot little race tomorrow. Noble Dynasty cost 3.6 million guineas as a yearling. He ran green on both occasions last year, but still won the last run easily enough. Impressing at home apparently. Mutasaabeq only ran the once - winning quite comfortably, which came as something of a surprise since he was only on an educational outing.
 
As far as I can see, he's AOB's first ever runner in the race which is, in itself, notewothy. Might not be out to win, but sure enough there for a reason.
 
reet hard said:
As far as I can see, he's AOB's first ever runner in the race which is, in itself, notewothy. Might not be out to win, but sure enough there for a reason.
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Aye, give him a yardstick maybe. I’ll be watching with interest rather than betting, but I would be tempted to oppose him - the two I mentioned are certainly bred in the purple.
 
Looking like Battleground don't run. I've good positions on Wembley and today added St Mark's Basilica at 7/1 for a proper touch.
 
Slim said:
Looking like Battleground don't run. I've good positions on Wembley and today added St Mark's Basilica at 7/1 for a proper touch.
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Yes the brother phoned this afternoon to tell me he'd read that Battleground might go instead to France or the Curragh for lesser Guineas, if that doesn't offend our neighbours.

It would make me want to take very seriously whatever is sent to Newmarket.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes the brother phoned this afternoon to tell me he'd read that Battleground might go instead to France or the Curragh for lesser Guineas, if that doesn't offend our neighbours.

It would make me want to take very seriously whatever is sent to Newmarket.
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“He's in good order and has done very well. He's getting ready for the Guineas, but whether he'll run at Newmarket or not isn't decided yet. St Mark's Basilica and Wembley are on the same path as him. It's possible we'll go to the Curragh or France with Battleground. We think he's a miler. He's a strong traveller who can quicken. I'd say there's a lot of his mum in him – he's very like Found to look at and he's not short of pace. We're excited about him.”

Was in the stable tour posted by Wilson.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Timeform seem quite keen on Thunder Moon while recognising the potential of Mutasaabeq (would need to be supplemented) and Noble Dynasty (currently 50/1). The latter is out tomorrow at Newmarket.
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I wrote that without checking the card. I had an alert re Noble Dynasty but Mutasaabeq ran away with it and they're talking about supplementing him now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wrote that without checking the card. I had an alert re Noble Dynasty but Mutasaabeq ran away with it and they're talking about supplementing him now.
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He did indeed and it looked a pretty speedy gallop at that, which makes Noble Dynasty's run not a disaster either. Whether Duke of Mantua didn't run his race or was burned off by the pace I'm not sure, but if he was sent over as a sighting shot Aiden O'Brien will have some thinking to do. Hills didn't seem dead keen to supplement Mutasaabeq, but I reckon he'll be there.

"loved the ground today and I think he's a very talented horse. We didn't put him in the Guineas. We spoke about it and were just always a little bit concerned that temperament wise he was a little bit immature so we wanted to go down the soft approach. But the way he's taken things today he's got a bright future for sure. We'll have to speak to Angus Gold and everyone at Shadwell and make a decision. We're mindful it's a long year and there are lots of other very good races we can aim at. It's just great to have a horse like him in the yard. Royal Ascot is another route we could take and we'll see" - Charlie Hills, trainer.
 
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BJ
Imo, Duke Of Mantua never looked happy on the ground (RP said he became unbalanced in the dip).Better judges will decide if he runs, at the mo I'd settle for a place.:)
 
reet hard said:
BJ
Imo, Duke Of Mantua never looked happy on the ground (RP said he became unbalanced in the dip).Better judges will decide if he runs, at the mo I'd settle for a place.:)
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I thought he was in some trouble before the dip. Ryan Moore started niggling at him shortly after the 4 furlong mark to try and keep pace with Mutasaabeq, but he never pushed him too hard when the cause was lost. O’Brien will need to bring his top boys across and I suspect DOM won’t be one of them.
 
The Free Handicap is rarely a good guide to the Guineas.

He won it off 107 so might be a 114 horse with some improvement to come but there were good juveniles last season already approaching the 120 mark and I would prefer to think a few of them will at least consolidate at that level.

You'd also have to think Ontario is probably a third-division horse out to help them assess the opposition.
 
I had a quick look at the 2000gns card but can’t find any dark horses. I did have a bet on one though. Royal Air Force.
 
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I think Crisford is top notch so I also took a little nibble on the exchange in the hope of a big run today, a shortening in price and the opportunity to lay off at shorter for a free bet.
 
jinnyj said:
Taking performance by Master of the Seas there.
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Yes. Front two some way clear. Might not have been a great renewal and One Ruler seemingly at least as good.

The Crisford horse got a nice reintroduction down the field. I wouldn't be surprised if something like the Britannia is on the agenda.
 
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