29th May 2023

yorick

Conditional
Joined
Mar 2, 2018
Messages
705
The bet for me is:

Storm Fox - 3.25 Redcar 10/1 Ew



In April my notebook records:

'05/04/23 Nott 5f Sft
Well, here was the 3rd run, after which we’ll see what the handicapper does. The ground here rode just plain soft and it may be that this one likes some ‘good’ in the going description.

At any rate, they weren’t at the races today and she wasn’t wound up for the best. I can’t wait to see what her mark will be but, strictly on the book here, it should be around 55.
Let’s hope so.

Well, the rating’s in and it’s 63 which is a lovely mark to go to war with. Imo, she should be rated nearer 70-72 on that Squealer run and since then she’s been raced with a mark in mind. I might guess that racing on good ground or better, at 5f, this filly will be a major betting opportunity in handicaps.'


She races off 61 here and the going and distance is right (sire a group winner over the distance) so I simply must commit; there was something in that first 2yo run that left an impression and here I'm hoping that I can trust my racing eyes. I might add that the stable has picked up of late, too: 2 winners from last three runners and 3 from the last 12 so perhaps that heralds a decent show.
 
Alarm bells ring as this has shortened to 9/2. Even with the non-runner shortening the prices, this represents the day time price-shrinkage that usually spells the kiss of death.
 
Alarm bells? That’s an alert for me that has me adding like mad. Haven’t backed this one, though, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens.
 
Yup. Alarm bells and so it proves again. I'm very disappointed, tbh.

A little profit, yeah, but I thought she'd come to win her race, there.

Ho um. A little profit but a little deflated too, to be sure.
 
Back
Top