4.45 - Curragh - help needed

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Hi I know some of you Irish lads hear bits and bobs but a close friend of mine in Ireland notified me of this gallop yesterday.

23 . 07 . 08

7f Sweet Sixteen (led, last), Saphire Bracelet (pushed along 3rd - C O D), Empress Of France (J H - nice type 2l in front of SB), Spira (J P M - kicked 3l clear, impressive.

I'm more interested to know if any of you have heard anything about Spira, as a good friend of mine informs me that Dermot Weld runs his best filly in this race today, Dance Pass and he has advised me to back her ante post for the 1000 Guineas.

Not knowing much about O'Brien's horses the above work looks interesting as Empress Of France has been highly tried so far and still holds an entry in the Lowther. Also Saphire Bracelet is in this race today.

I was planning to have a good bet on Dance Pass today, so just looking to see if any of those who get O'Brien stuff could clarify if Spira is held in high regard as the gallop above suggests. Any input would be appreciated, via here or pm.

Chris
 
Yesterday, Sophisticat, Peeping Fawn, Quarter Moon, Necklace, Virginia Waters, Shahtoush, Half way To Heaven, Moonstone are all subsequent Group 1 winning fillys/mares for Ballydoyle but all were beaten on their debut. I would love to see a stat for the % of fillys winning first time out…imagine it’s very low.

I do not know anything about that gallop but Sweet Sixteen is a poor three year old maiden and particularly with Ballydoyle stayers, given the nature of their galloping techniques the pecking order is not always clear.
 
A 1 mile 2yo race in July is not really where I'd expect to see a classic winner, let alone a 1000 guineas winner, making her debut.

(Queue a long list of classic horses who made there debut over 1 mile in July)
 
Why feel the need to have a bet at all based on reports of gallops you haven't seen? Surely it's best just to watch the race and learn from it.
 
Surely Gus what you learn in watching it will also be learned by everyone else and thus any value will be gone next time?
 
If I backed Spira for that I would not be happy. Granted she might not have won but she was never asked any sort of question. Stewards have to have a look at that.
 
Hugely encouraging run from Dance Pass, not hit once with the whip, and travelled like the best horse in the race bar the winner. Would be confident to back it anywhere next time in a 7f - 1m maiden. Value to have finished much closer and given a lovely introduction.

The O'Brien horse was never in the race, before eye-catching late headway, ding dong anyone !!!

The winner won well with a bit in hand, but for me the Weld horse is the only one to take out the race bar the winner who with a clear run would have won 2 or 3 lengths.
 
Oh by the way, I made a sodding boo boo, the email off my Weld guy said, to back her for the Guineas and the Oaks.

Took 100s for Oaks, 120s for Guineas, can't imagine any price change from that run.
 
I don't mind a gentle introduction, even no whip...but to my eye Murtagh was pulling double for much of that race and then after a little bit of interference he stuck her in again behind horses. Some talented fillys in todays race.
 
On the day Spira was at least good enough to finish beside Weld's if ridden with a little more ambition. Next day she'd beat them all. Definitely a case of using the racecourse for a training run, though I doubt the Stewards will see it that way.
 
If I backed Spira for that I would not be happy. Granted she might not have won but she was never asked any sort of question. Stewards have to have a look at that.

Do you think that's likely Gal, same old same ol. They're trained on the track.
 
Ballydoyle first string Spira missed the break and never got into the race. [JO'H]

Above report by RP

She was given an easy intruduction to say the least. Connections probably did not want to give her a hard race on the firm ground first time out.

If I had bet on her I would not be happy either.
 
No. Take it to its logical conclusion and you would back horses where you thought you had an edge. Whatever that may be.
 
betsmate said:
Surely Gus what you learn in watching it will also be learned by everyone else and thus any value will be gone next time?
Click to expand...

Its a matter of interpretation.l remember a horse of Barry Hills being given a seemingly very easy introduction on his debut at Newbury last year.The RP reported he would improve for the run.I thought the same initially but when it got widely publicised I took the view that he would be overbet on his next race-which he was.
Zulu Chief is a horse who will definitely be too short next time out regardless of where he runs.
 
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