The Fortune Teller
Journeyman
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2016
- Messages
- 8,742
Hello everybody. I notice I haven't blogged a post for a while so with the festival to end all festivals coming up I thought I would share my thoughts.
I reckon the championship races provide plenty of interest. Shishkin I wouldn't oppose. Constitution Hill should win the Champion Hurdle. Energemene has something to prove after his last run and I do fancy Gentleman De Mee to run a big race. He gets better throughout the season so he can go close at fair odds. In the main event, I am happy to sit back and watch.
There are so many interesting angles - Will Galopin cement his potential superstar staying chaser status. Can former champ A Plus Tard get back to peak form, or has he lost his way? Can the 2022 Grand National winner, Noble Yeats win the following years Gold Cup. Can horses like Ahoy Senor, Hewick and even Sounds Russian get competative at the business end of this Gold Cup. I think I am happy to watch this one.
That said, I have been through the other races and will mention a few horses I think can run well. Some of these have multiple entries so I will just write the horses down with a write up of why I think they could run well and mention the races they are entered in, instead of selecting them for specific races next week.
Monbeg Genius is in the Ultima after todays latest entry stage where he should get in on a light weight. He has a secondary entry in the Kim Muir but I have another horse on my radar for that so I'd actually prefer to see Monbeg Genius in the Ultima on day one.
It doesn't take a genius to work out Monbeg Genius is an improving horse. He has won three races this season and he's shown he is a really talented horse. There was a quote from trainer Jonjo O Neill stating the horse might be better with a bit of cut in the ground, so we'll see if that materialises and whether Monbeg Genius runs in the Ultima, the Kim Muir or misses those engagements for a race like the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. The Ultima is a really competative handicap but if Monbeg can improve again which I I reckon he can then he's a player.
Morning Soldier NON RUNNER is clearly coming into form at the right time for a crack at the Boodles on Day One. Danny Mullins held him up the last day, then delivered him plenty early enough about two out, only for Morning Soldier to get beat in the closing stages. It would be no surprise if whoever rides Morning Soldier delivers him a bit later next week. I think he's in good form and his handicap mark is exploitable.
Bold Endeavour weakened quickly over fences the last day but I feel he needs forgiving for that one poor run. Before that day he showed talent over fences, and if you go back further through his form, you will see he was a half decent novice hurdler. He's rated 5lb lower over hurdles so I am wanting to see him in either the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe hurdle. He is entered in both those races. Were connections to run in the Plate Chase I would probably give backing him a miss. I am prepared to forgive the last run, but only if they switch him to hurdles, so I'll see where he goes.
I backed Call Me Lyreen when he was a young hurdler and finished second when having a rough race in a large runner field at Punchestown about two seasons ago. Call Me Lyreen backed this up when he won another valueable handicap hurdle at Leopardstown at 20/1, which showed a left handed track is not a problem for him. In terms of his chasing record and comparative chase and hurdle marks - he is only rated four pounds higher over hurdles, despite winning twice as many races over hurdles than fences and five times the prize money!! Hence considering he is more potent in handicap hurdles it seems pretty clear to me connections should run this horse in the Coral Cup or County Hurdle where he could out run the odds at a big old price. That's where I'd be wanting to back him.
Deise Aba is a horse who I've kept an eye on for a while. He fell out of love with traditional chasing, but I thought he took to the Cross Country course the last day like a duck to water. What a run that was and his chance might improve again if the rain arrives before this race. He has loads to find on official ratings with a horse like Delta Work but you know what, at 20/1 I think he is an each way bet.
Malystic is a horse I have mentioned a few times on the forum. He is a vastly improved horse this season and really showed a nice turn of foot at Doncaster. His next run in a graded race when only about three lengths behind Greaneteen wasn't such a bad run. He looked a bit unfluent but he can learn from that. He was only receiving 6lbs off Greaneteen that day, so while it's obvious Paul Nicholls Champion Chase horse Greaneteen wasn't at his very best, that was a grade 2 chase and Malystic was kept on a mark of 149, which to my mind leaves the possibility he can run another big race in a valuable handicap. I think Peter Niven said he might not run Malystic at Cheltenham as he didn't like the track on his last attempt, but he did scope badly afterwards so don't think we should read too much into that. I for one would like to see Malystic take his chance.
Wakool beat a new and improved Itchy Feet the last day when he stayed on really well. I don't think the slight rise in the weights will stop him running really well again in the pertemps next week. He has loads of good form even from last season in staying handicaps, and he should be staying on when others are legless. This likeable grey seems to be peaking at the right time. I think I am right in saying connections have always thought a lot of him. Given a straight choice between backing Wakool or Itchy Feet, who will reoppose next week, I'd prefer Wakool who stayed on best the last day. Oh and while I'm talking about the Pertemps, I would also mention the Gordon Elliot horse called Santonito. NOT DECLARED. He has shown some ability in novice hurdles and if they have freshened him up for a crack at this handicap hurdle or even the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle he could run well. I'd definately put a line through his last poor run in a novice hurdle in January.
Elixir De Nutz has come into some nice form over fences. I think his second to the Venetia Williams horse the last day in the race Malystic ran in was pretty nice form. I hope they are freshening him up for a crack at the Plate Chase as his win at Wincanton where he murdered Galahad Quest and Celebre D'allen in the manner of a really good horse I thought was a really eyecatching run.
Royal Thief caught my eye for trainer Henry De Bromhead when winning last time out in Ireland. I wouldn't worry about the lack of a recent run as his last win came after a long absense off the track. He is a lightly raced chaser who could be well ahead of his mark and if he is declared next week I think he will shorten in the market too. I see Dunboyne is entered too. He ran well the last day in Ireland when I mentioned him on the forum, but he is quirky and I'd be doubtful he can show his best form in a race like this around a left handed track.
I am convinced No Ordinary Joe can do better than his last run where he was very keen early. The first thing Nicky Henderson needs to have done is sort this horses keeness out. You just can't afford to be moving your head left to right in proper races as it takes vital energy from the horse and shows they are mentally not well prepared enough. No Ordinary Joe is entered in both the Country Hurdle and Coral Cup. His previous good third in the Greatwood Hurdle should stand him in good stead for another crack at Cheltenham. I think I'd rather see him in the County Hurdle actually. Owner JP McManus has a good hand to play as he already has the anti post favourite in Filey Bay. I might give No Ordinary Joe another chance especially if he goes for the County Hurdle although he wouldn't be my strongest fancy of the meeting. I'd give him an each way shout though. He is better than that run at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle, of that I'm sure.
I might take a chance on Rock My Way for Syd Hosie in the Albert Bartlett. I see this trainer landed a big priced winner the other day at Kempton in Lieutenant Rocco. I like to see smaller trainers get a good horse to train and Rock My Way has done Syd Hosie proud so far. Why not have a flutter on Rock My Way then eh?
Those are my lot for now. I thought clearing my thoughts might be good for me!
Marb
I reckon the championship races provide plenty of interest. Shishkin I wouldn't oppose. Constitution Hill should win the Champion Hurdle. Energemene has something to prove after his last run and I do fancy Gentleman De Mee to run a big race. He gets better throughout the season so he can go close at fair odds. In the main event, I am happy to sit back and watch.
There are so many interesting angles - Will Galopin cement his potential superstar staying chaser status. Can former champ A Plus Tard get back to peak form, or has he lost his way? Can the 2022 Grand National winner, Noble Yeats win the following years Gold Cup. Can horses like Ahoy Senor, Hewick and even Sounds Russian get competative at the business end of this Gold Cup. I think I am happy to watch this one.
That said, I have been through the other races and will mention a few horses I think can run well. Some of these have multiple entries so I will just write the horses down with a write up of why I think they could run well and mention the races they are entered in, instead of selecting them for specific races next week.
Monbeg Genius is in the Ultima after todays latest entry stage where he should get in on a light weight. He has a secondary entry in the Kim Muir but I have another horse on my radar for that so I'd actually prefer to see Monbeg Genius in the Ultima on day one.
It doesn't take a genius to work out Monbeg Genius is an improving horse. He has won three races this season and he's shown he is a really talented horse. There was a quote from trainer Jonjo O Neill stating the horse might be better with a bit of cut in the ground, so we'll see if that materialises and whether Monbeg Genius runs in the Ultima, the Kim Muir or misses those engagements for a race like the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. The Ultima is a really competative handicap but if Monbeg can improve again which I I reckon he can then he's a player.
Morning Soldier NON RUNNER is clearly coming into form at the right time for a crack at the Boodles on Day One. Danny Mullins held him up the last day, then delivered him plenty early enough about two out, only for Morning Soldier to get beat in the closing stages. It would be no surprise if whoever rides Morning Soldier delivers him a bit later next week. I think he's in good form and his handicap mark is exploitable.
Bold Endeavour weakened quickly over fences the last day but I feel he needs forgiving for that one poor run. Before that day he showed talent over fences, and if you go back further through his form, you will see he was a half decent novice hurdler. He's rated 5lb lower over hurdles so I am wanting to see him in either the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe hurdle. He is entered in both those races. Were connections to run in the Plate Chase I would probably give backing him a miss. I am prepared to forgive the last run, but only if they switch him to hurdles, so I'll see where he goes.
I backed Call Me Lyreen when he was a young hurdler and finished second when having a rough race in a large runner field at Punchestown about two seasons ago. Call Me Lyreen backed this up when he won another valueable handicap hurdle at Leopardstown at 20/1, which showed a left handed track is not a problem for him. In terms of his chasing record and comparative chase and hurdle marks - he is only rated four pounds higher over hurdles, despite winning twice as many races over hurdles than fences and five times the prize money!! Hence considering he is more potent in handicap hurdles it seems pretty clear to me connections should run this horse in the Coral Cup or County Hurdle where he could out run the odds at a big old price. That's where I'd be wanting to back him.
Deise Aba is a horse who I've kept an eye on for a while. He fell out of love with traditional chasing, but I thought he took to the Cross Country course the last day like a duck to water. What a run that was and his chance might improve again if the rain arrives before this race. He has loads to find on official ratings with a horse like Delta Work but you know what, at 20/1 I think he is an each way bet.
Malystic is a horse I have mentioned a few times on the forum. He is a vastly improved horse this season and really showed a nice turn of foot at Doncaster. His next run in a graded race when only about three lengths behind Greaneteen wasn't such a bad run. He looked a bit unfluent but he can learn from that. He was only receiving 6lbs off Greaneteen that day, so while it's obvious Paul Nicholls Champion Chase horse Greaneteen wasn't at his very best, that was a grade 2 chase and Malystic was kept on a mark of 149, which to my mind leaves the possibility he can run another big race in a valuable handicap. I think Peter Niven said he might not run Malystic at Cheltenham as he didn't like the track on his last attempt, but he did scope badly afterwards so don't think we should read too much into that. I for one would like to see Malystic take his chance.
Wakool beat a new and improved Itchy Feet the last day when he stayed on really well. I don't think the slight rise in the weights will stop him running really well again in the pertemps next week. He has loads of good form even from last season in staying handicaps, and he should be staying on when others are legless. This likeable grey seems to be peaking at the right time. I think I am right in saying connections have always thought a lot of him. Given a straight choice between backing Wakool or Itchy Feet, who will reoppose next week, I'd prefer Wakool who stayed on best the last day. Oh and while I'm talking about the Pertemps, I would also mention the Gordon Elliot horse called Santonito. NOT DECLARED. He has shown some ability in novice hurdles and if they have freshened him up for a crack at this handicap hurdle or even the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle he could run well. I'd definately put a line through his last poor run in a novice hurdle in January.
Elixir De Nutz has come into some nice form over fences. I think his second to the Venetia Williams horse the last day in the race Malystic ran in was pretty nice form. I hope they are freshening him up for a crack at the Plate Chase as his win at Wincanton where he murdered Galahad Quest and Celebre D'allen in the manner of a really good horse I thought was a really eyecatching run.
Royal Thief caught my eye for trainer Henry De Bromhead when winning last time out in Ireland. I wouldn't worry about the lack of a recent run as his last win came after a long absense off the track. He is a lightly raced chaser who could be well ahead of his mark and if he is declared next week I think he will shorten in the market too. I see Dunboyne is entered too. He ran well the last day in Ireland when I mentioned him on the forum, but he is quirky and I'd be doubtful he can show his best form in a race like this around a left handed track.
I am convinced No Ordinary Joe can do better than his last run where he was very keen early. The first thing Nicky Henderson needs to have done is sort this horses keeness out. You just can't afford to be moving your head left to right in proper races as it takes vital energy from the horse and shows they are mentally not well prepared enough. No Ordinary Joe is entered in both the Country Hurdle and Coral Cup. His previous good third in the Greatwood Hurdle should stand him in good stead for another crack at Cheltenham. I think I'd rather see him in the County Hurdle actually. Owner JP McManus has a good hand to play as he already has the anti post favourite in Filey Bay. I might give No Ordinary Joe another chance especially if he goes for the County Hurdle although he wouldn't be my strongest fancy of the meeting. I'd give him an each way shout though. He is better than that run at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle, of that I'm sure.
I might take a chance on Rock My Way for Syd Hosie in the Albert Bartlett. I see this trainer landed a big priced winner the other day at Kempton in Lieutenant Rocco. I like to see smaller trainers get a good horse to train and Rock My Way has done Syd Hosie proud so far. Why not have a flutter on Rock My Way then eh?
Those are my lot for now. I thought clearing my thoughts might be good for me!
Marb
