A Handicapping Issue

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
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Or is it no issue at all...

One of the things I took away from the void race last Saturday was the fairly comfortable win for Doing Fine. Off 125 on the day (presumably 1lb oh or ow) having been rated 137 at his peak, he looked a pretty commanding winner, as though he was back to somewhere near his previous best.

With the race void, though, the form doesn't officially count so he remains on 124.

I just wanted to canvass forum opinion on whether it would be unfair to raise him or unfair on his opponents in his next race not to raise him, given that he showed last week that he was on a very lenient-looking mark.

Personally, I have no strong opinion at the moment as I'm taking a back seat these days but it would not surprise me in the least if the horse lost his next race or two prior to popping up again at a price in a very decent event.
 
That's obviously the case, G-G, hence:

Or is it no issue at all...
Click to expand...

I realise we're not comparing apples with apples but the handicapper has raised horses that maybe fell two out when going well on the assumption that they would have shown or were showing improved form. But they might have stopped to nothing after the last.

I'm really just playing devil's advocate here on the basis that although the race 'never happened' we all know that it did. It's a bit like a lawyer making a comment that is objected to and withdrawn. It can't be unsaid even though it's scratched from the transcript.
 
Doing fine 1250c tomorrow 7/2 off the same mark.

Back in 2014 the young master won the badger ales but was disqualified as he wwsnt qualified to run.
But he went up 14lb.
 
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Outsider said:
Doing fine 1250c tomorrow 7/2 off the same mark.

Back in 2014 the young master won the badger ales but was disqualified as he wwsnt qualified to run.
But he went up 14lb.
Click to expand...

I spent a lot of time on this race this afternoon (mainly because I'm restricted in what I can access and it becomes very time consuming) and after going all round the houses alighted on Doing Fine. I just hope he's trying again but he has been withdrawn before on account of soft ground.
 
Doing Fine seems very weak in the market this morning, already out to 5/1. at Sandown he was well backed.

I might look elsewhere.
 
DO
I had thought about this before you raised it. When you posted I decided to back the horse whatever. So thank you!
 
I allowed the market weakness to put me off and I switched to some other donk.

Pleased for TS and anyone else who kept the faith.

I'm not too bothered about not winning. I'm more chuffed that the point I was trying to make was proved right. It was chucked in if it could run its race. I stated in the OP, though, that I thought it might lose its next race or two. I was wrong about that!
 
Outsider said:
Doing fine 1250c tomorrow 7/2 off the same mark.

Back in 2014 the young master won the badger ales but was disqualified as he wwsnt qualified to run.
But he went up 14lb.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately for me I took 7/2 with skybet last night so didnt get bog.never mind,it got my new year off with a profit.
 
I'm maybe reading a bit too much into this but I note that the yard runs Carole's Destrier in the big race today which is twice as valuable as the race Doing Fine won during the week. Doing Fine was clearly about 7lbs well in yet they went for a lesser race and kept Carole's Destrier back for this veterans' final. Do they think Carole's Destrier is better handicapped? At 16/1, I'm happy to pay to find out. He's also weak in the market but I let that put me off Doing Fine.

I had a small bet on Burtons Well at Aintree and thought he was quite impressive. I couldn't have told you he'd been out since then but he'd have been a candidate for the bounce anyway. With Houblon Des Obeaux running well for the yard when falling in the void Sandown race, am I also reading too much into Burtons Well's appearance here? HisAintree win suggested he may be better than ever and he's very lightly raced for his age. I've saved on him at 8/1.

(Continuing with very small bets, mind.)
 
Re that Veterans Chase I saw a stat posted by Andrew Mount that the career record of Vieux Lion Rouge below Class 1 level reads 1111111103011 (10/13), improving to 1111111111 (10/10) away from Cheltenham and he drops back down to Class 2 level today.
 
I took 8/1 about Dark Flame for that race based on the fact that he’s running off a 1lb lower than when running into a good 2nd behind subsequent winner Doing Fine in the voided race.

Worry is he can hit a flat spot but hopefully the first time pieces will help prevent that.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Re that Veterans Chase I saw a stat posted by Andrew Mount that the career record of Vieux Lion Rouge below Class 1 level reads 1111111103011 (10/13), improving to 1111111111 (10/10) away from Cheltenham and he drops back down to Class 2 level today.
Click to expand...

As you know, DG, I'm very sceptical about stats but that is fascinating. Thanks for posting it.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Re that Veterans Chase I saw a stat posted by Andrew Mount that the career record of Vieux Lion Rouge below Class 1 level reads 1111111103011 (10/13), improving to 1111111111 (10/10) away from Cheltenham and he drops back down to Class 2 level today.
Click to expand...

Ridiculous stats. I have other fancies in the race but will have a courtesy few quid on at them stats.

Always a horse I’ve liked Vieux Lion Rouge, and was actually the first horse I put up on here when he won his Becher a while back. Always got a run for your money in the National with him as well. Thanks for posting
 
Only thing I’d say about that stat is that all bar one of those class 2 or lower wins were gained in 2015 and earlier. He’s only run once in that class in over 4 years, albeit winning, and he’s an 11yo now - largely negated by the fact it is a veterans chase of course.

Probably worth a few quid at double figure odds though.
 
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