A look at the Grand National

O

Outsider

Journeyman
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Jul 2, 2017
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Its lottery time again.how do YOU try and pick the winner.
Will weight tell?
Will they stay?
Are they good enough?
Is age a concern?

I bet Ted Walsh is absolutely fuming at the weight Any second now as been given and rightly so imo.there shouldnt be an aintree factor these days.
Although there is a 4 week gap this year I'm still not sure that horses that had a hard race will be recovered enough.
Horses that were well beaten in the race before are a no no with me.in the last 6 yrs we have had the first 7 yr old win for decades,3 8yr olds and 2 9 yr olds, one was Tiger Roll so should we be concentrating on younger horses.
12/14 winners were having their first start in the race.
Horses that were placed or won a different national often run well.
11/11 had had 3 previous runs.
Has run in the last 50 days.
8/11 had won this season.
9/11 had run 7 times over hurdles with 2 wins.

Although a horse over 11s 5lb gets placed they dont have a good win record and from my point of narrowing the field down I'm not considering the top 12.
I'm also concentrating on 8 to 10 yr old.
Leaving 7 yr olds out might be a mistake but I've got to cut the field down.
Nowadays with easier fences they seem to go quicker so hold up horses get to far back.
Durasso hasnt run over further than 3m but did finish 2nd at galway to Hewick and 3rd in the Kerry national. But overall this could be too far.
LE MILOS won the Hennessey and is worth its place.
I cant see The Shunter staying this far.
THE BIG BREAKAWAY hasnt won for over 2 yrs but ran 2nd in the welsh national giving 26lb to the winner and is better off with the 3rd the big dog.
MINELLA TRUMP I dont know what to expect but it has won 9 out of its last 10 phases and beat Hewick in one of them.
The negative is it's never run in a race with more than 11 runners.
VANILLIER has the potential.hasnt gone on as expected but after having an op for kissing spines he ran and jumped much better when 2nd giving 8lb to kemboy.
AINT THAT A SHAME distance an unknown and is a novice which puts me off.
CORACH RAMBLER is a deserved favourite but I can let it go at the price especially after winning at Cheltenham. Which is a negative.
ENJOY D'ALLEN finished 3rd in the Irish national last year and ran in this race after but stumbled on landing and UR at the first.
Not ruled out at a massive price
MR INCREDIBLE low weight but had a hard race at Cheltenham along with Dunboyne.
CLOUDY GLEN is hard to weigh up.runs well first time up and then goes downhill. Since he won the Hennessey with the 3rd 22L behind hes been lightly raced ran well first time back in 3rd and then ran badly at Cheltenham but that meant he didnt get a hard race.
Same sire as Many Clouds so a good chance of staying.
Whatever happens 100/1 is a massive price.
MISTER COFFEY still hasnt won a chase but was 2nd in the kim Muir last year and 3rd to gaillard du mesnil in the NH chase.
This race could come to soon for both.
HILL SIXTEEN a bit of a plodder and needs soft ground but has run over the fences twice finishing 2nd to snow leopardess 2021 and was running on late in the 2022 race.not ruled out.
EVAS OSKAR another outsider but cant be ruled out.was 4th in the Eider carrying 12 stone giving 10lb to kittys light.this of course is a much tougher race as EO only Carries 10s 1lb.

GABBYS CROSS is another that mightn't stay. Only qualified on his last run.
RECITE A PRAYER was running well but its last 2 runs were diabolical.
OUR POWER has done nothing wrong but only just scraped in.
Could be anything but again stamina could be an issue.
DIOL KER in and out form and a lot of these have run against each other.was a good 2nd in Dec and could be one of the more interesting Irish horses.

So my long list of 8 are
VANILLIER 25/1
CLOUDY GLEN 100/1
HILL SIXTEEN 100/1
THE BIG BREAKAWAY 50/1
EVAS OSKAR 100/1
MINELLA TRUMP 66/1
ENJOY D'ALLEN 66/1
MISTER COFFEY 66/1

OPINIONS WELCOME.
 
Hiya mate.

As you know, I've done Hill Sixteen Ew although, studying it again, I'm concerned by the Court Cave breeding. Although he apperaed to be staying on in his last race over the fences and 3m, I'm not convinced any Court Cave will stay the National distance.

You say that the stats are against top - weighted animals winning this but it's not the race it was in terms of the fences and although it's a tough jump, it's much more like an ordinary staying chase these days and the 'Aintree' factor has diminished imo.

For that reason, I don't see how Noble Yeats can be left out of this. That Gold Cup run must have been the best race of his life; there he was staying on at the death. I think the current 8/1 looks good in the light of that. For that matter, we must also consider last year's 3rd Delta Work. He's now an incredible 20Lbs better off for that defeat and must surely come into the picture. You might consider Galvin on his last run against Delta Work. I backed him that day and he came there looking like the winner but was outstayed. I think Saturday's distance may be his undoing.

Last year's race looks to me to be the key here and I noticed a couple of things: Delta Work did get some way behind the leaders and had to work to make up ground, which may have cost him up the run in. Lto at Chelt, he raced a lot more handily. If he lays up there on Saturday, he may well be able to take advantage of the weights pull this time. He has an excellent chance imo.

Conversely, Longhouse Poet ran a fierce race last year, taking the 'brave' route, on the inside all the way round and either leading or up in the first three. We may see a different approach this time and he may be asked to be not so "buzzy", as his trainer described the run. They've given him a prep race closer to this nash so that he won't, perhaps, run so fresh. He did jump the fences brilliantly last year, if you watch so he would have to have a great chance imo.

So, my choices are:

Noble Yeats 8/1
Delta Work 8/1
Longhouse Poet 12/1
Hill Sixteen 66/1
 
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I agree with what you say but I cant bring myself to back topweights and short prices.

That's probably why I dont back the winner very often.
 
I'll be adding Minella Trump, mate.

That Perth run Sept 21 would put Hewick in Saturday's Nash with 11-2 (!).

Long time ago and a bit of a fantasy but still, lol.

66/1
 
Outsider;bt1508 said:
I agree with what you say but I cant bring myself to back topweights and short prices.

That's probably why I dont back the winner very often.
Click to expand...

We're funny like that, aren't we?

In many races, 8 - 12/1 would be well acceptable odds, wouldn't they yet, in a big race like this, they seem unacceptable.

Oh, by the way, Minella Trump has form with Corach Rambler, as well. Gave him 2lbs and a beating at Perth over 2m 4f. Up in distance, markedly but MT's breeding points to stay, stay, stay.
 
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Minella trump.
I'm surprised Brian Hughes isnt riding it.

On a line of form hurdles/chases Vanillier ,on a line through Oscar's elite has the beating of corach rambler.
Vanillier won the Alfred bartlett oscar was placed and Stattler was 4th.
 
I think Vanilier may have a problem with the trip, mate. Only my opinion since so few have gone over the trip, you're making an educated guess, aren't you?
 
yorick;bt1516 said:
I think Vanilier may have a problem with the trip, mate. Only my opinion since so few have gone over the trip, you're making an educated guess, aren't you?
Click to expand...

Yes I am.
 
I'm sticking with my original four and going against Minella Trump since the ground's gone against.

I've taken:

Hill Sixteen 100/1
Delta Work 8/1
Longhouse Poet 16/1 (!)
Noble Yeats 11/1

I think all four will handle the ground.
 
Did you see my post on the forum mate,about extra places.
Noble Yeats 9/1 10 places
Delta work 7/1 10 places.

CLOUDY GLEN is my main one.

Good luck.
 
Great.

Thanks for telling me, mate.

I've had Delta 10 places 7/1, Longhouse 15/1 10 places, Noble yeats 9/1 10 places, Hill Sixteen 55/1 10 places and one extra - Franky Du Berlais 55/1 10 places.

Well, it's the National, isn't it.
 
Didnt get off to the best start with Charlie Deutsch falling off Cloudy Glen at the first.
That was a real downer.

But a good run from Vanillier saved the day.
A real shame Hill sixteen lost his life.
Surprise of the race for me was Born by the sea 6th,surprised he was only 50/1 and surprised that someone on the racing post tipped it.
I backed him the last 2 yrs in the plate at Cheltenham.
Deserved winner.won well.
Good run from Mister coffey as well.
 
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