Cheltenham Festival 2017 Ante Post:
Paul Nicholls runners in handicaps:
In the heady heydays of Kauto Star, Master Minded, Big Bucks, Rock On Ruby, Azertyuiop etc it was common to see the Paul Nicholls representatives winning, if not getting highly competitive, in some of the top races at the Cheltenham Festival. With such a big operation it will probably happen again at some time in the future but there seems to have been a concerted effort to target some of the handicaps at the meeting in recent seasons. With recent stable stars such as Silviniaco Conti seemingly not in love with the Prestbury Park track it has proved to be a shrewd move.
Of the yard's 12 Festival winners between 2009 and 2012 they had 3 win (plus 3 placed) in handicap company. Two of those successful came over hurdles and one over fences and involved 44 entries in 31 of the 40 conventional handicaps (not including the Cross Country Chase). Between 2013 and 2016 they had 8 winners at the Festival. 7 of those came in handicaps, 6 over hurdles and 1 over fences, and a further 10 were placed. They came from 58 runners in 33 of the 40 conventional handicaps. To win 7 of the 33 handicaps they entered in the latter period is no mean feat and it's backed up by the performance of 10 stablemates being placed. Amongst that record their performances in two handicaps in particular stand out.
In the past four seasons Paul Nicholls has entered eight horses in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle:
2013:
Salubrious (IRE), 6-11-5 OR:145, 6 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 1st at 16/1.
2014:
Caid Du Berlais (FR), 5-11-5 OR:143, 6 previous runs for the Trainer (12 in total). 3rd at 9/1.
Urbain De Sivola (FR), 6-10-6 OR:135, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (13 in total). 4th at 33/1.
Virak (FR), 5-11-5 OR:146, 7 previous winners for the Trainer (7 in total). 6th at 25/1.
2015:
Pearl Swan (FR), 7-11-4 OR:138, 6 previous runs for the Trainer (11 in total). 6th at 33/1.
Le Mercurey (FR), 5-11-10 OR:144, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (5 in total). 7th at 8/1.
2016:
Ibis Du Rheu (FR), 5-11-7 OR:139, 5 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 1st at 14/1.
Qualando (FR), 5-11-7 OR:139, 7 previous runs for the Trainer (10 in total). 16th at 10/1.
Mr Mix (FR), 5-11-6 OR:138, 4 previous runs for the Trainer (5 in total). F at 16/1(in contention but under pressure when fell at the last, normally two out).
At this time it's not confirmed who will represent the yard in the race this season but two contenders could be Lac Fontana and Brio Conti:
Lac Fontana: Only had two starts after returning from a 21 month absence but there was a bit of promise on his last start over three miles at Newbury and he is now back down to the mark from which he was successful in the County Hurdle at the 2014 Festival. He followed that with a Grade One Novice win at Aintree. Two of his last three starts have come at around three miles so whether the step back in trip for this race would be suitable at this stage of his career is a question he would have to answer. He is now more exposed that the yard's typical representative in this race and he would need to improve significantly for this third start back from his break if he were to get competitive.
Brio Conti: Preferred to Lac Fontana. He is a six year old French bred who has had just the six starts, all for Paul Nicholls. He showed some ability in two Bumpers but fell at the first on his hurdling debut at Kelso (odds on favourite). He almost made amends on his second start over obstacles but went down by half a length to Constantine Bay over 19 furlongs at Haydock. His conqueror has won both his starts subsequently and is now rated 142. The third, who was ten lengths behind, has also franked the form. Brio Conti created a favourable impression when very easily winning an extended 19 furlong Maiden Hurdle at Doncaster last time out but sandwiched in between that was a below par effort over 17 furlongs at Cheltenham. However his Trainer mentioned that the horse would be considered for the Festival on the back of his last performance, which suggests connections don't think the track at Prestbury Park was responsible for his lesser performance. He is Officially Rated 134 which leaves him very close to the cut off mark of recent seasons (2016 was 135, 2015 was 135, 2014 was 133 and 2013 was 131) and wouldn't get him into either the Coral Cup or County Hurdle. He does hold an entry in the Neptune Novices Hurdle but the lowest rated winner of that race in the past eight seasons has been 142 (the rest between 146 and 156) and the yard has not had a runner in the race for the past five seasons. They did have a runner back in 2011 who came second but he was rated 147. His entry in the race does at least give an indication of the regard Brio Conti is held in by connections and he is part-owned by John Hales, who has had a number of winners at the Festival with Paul Nicholls. With both Bet365 and Skybet giving a NRNB concession on the race an e/w wager at 10/1 looks appropriate.
16.50 - Cheltenham - Friday 17th March 2017 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle:
Brio Conti - 1.5 pts e/w. @ 10/1. (NRNB - Bet365, SkyBet - 1/4 odds first 4).
Over the same period (2013-2016) Paul Nicholls has entered ten horses in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (for 4 year old Novices) and seven of them have finished in the frame, two of them winning. Even in the four previous seasons, when the yard's record in handicaps was poorer, they were successful with one of their three entries (no runner in 2009).
2013:
Caid Du Berlais (FR), 10-12 OR:137, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (8 in total). 2nd at 20/1.
Ptit Zig (FR), 10-10 OR:130, 1 previous run for the Trainer (4 in total). 3rd at 22/1.
Saphir Du Rheu (FR), 10-10 OR:130, 1 previous run for the Trainer (3 in total). 20th at 6/1.
2014:
Keltus (FR), 10-13 OR:128, 3 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 4th at 25/1.
Solar Impulse (FR), 11-3 OR:135, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 7th at 25/1.
2015:
Qualando (FR), 11-00 OR:131, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (5 in total). 1st at 25/1.
Bouvreuil (FR), 11-2 OR:133, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (11 in total). 2nd at 14/1.
All Yours (FR), 11-6 OR:137, 3 previous runs for the Trainer (4 in total). 5th at 11/1.
2016:
Diego Du Charmil, 11-1 OR:131, 0 previous runs for the Trainer (3 in total) 1st at 13/2.
Romain De Senam, 11-4 OR:135, 4 previous runners for the Trainer (7 in total) 2nd at 20/1.
Looking at his current pool it's hard to predict which of the Trainer's runners will be targeted at this race but his record suggests that he will have at least one entry. With some of the Bookmakers giving the NRNB concession it at least gives us the chance of being brave. If our selections don't run our money is returned but if they do then the performance of the yard in the race in recent seasons suggests we are likely to get a good run for our money. Therefore we are going to suggest Dreamcatching, Chameron and Dolos.
Dreamcatching: Only had two starts for his current Trainer (5 in total) and, after being well beaten on his debut for current connections, he easily won a Maiden at Wincanton on Saturday (18th Feb.). What he beat is open to question with the favourite under-performing in third and the second making his hurdling debut after being well beaten in two Bumpers. He would need to find a significant amount of improvement to be competitive in a Festival race but he is the type to flourish once he is fully acclimatised. He is entered into the Grade Two Adonis Hurdle at Kempton on Feb. 25th and, if he takes his place, it will qualify him for this race and it's likely his performance will be a big guide to his connections as to whether a tilt at this prize is worthwhile.
Chameron: Looks an unlikely runner at this stage having not been seen since October and yet to make his debut for Paul Nicholls. However last seasons winner, Diego Du Charmil, won on his first start for the yard having been absent since the previous November. He had made three previous starts over hurdles in France without winning. Chameron won his two starts in France at Auteuil but has no booked entries over the next seven days.
Dolos: On his first run for Paul Nicholls he easily beat Rainbow Dreamer (making his hurdling debut and now rated 132) in a four runner affair at Chepstow over two miles. He was beaten 18 and a half lengths into third in a Grade One event over 18 furlongs at Auteuil after that but the two that beat him there are very progressive French hurdlers and there were useful types in fourth, fifth and sixth. He was again put to the sword in his next start at Chepstow back over two miles but the two ahead of him (13 lengths and 5 lengths) were rated 143 and 144 (now rated 155 and 142) and both hold entries in the Triumph Hurdle. Dolos kicked off his four year old campaign with another third (of 10), beaten seven and a half lengths in a Novice race over 18 furlongs at Taunton. He was made a short priced favourite that day, and the performance looked disappointing at the time, but the winner won a handicap from a mark of 132 on Saturday so the form may have a bit more substance than at first thought. Rated 135, he may be suited by a fast pace over two miles on a track like Cheltenham.
16.50 - Cheltenham - Wednesday 15th March 2017 - Fred Winter Juvenile handicap Hurdle:
Dreamcatching - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1. (NRNB - SkyBet, 1/4 odds first 4)
Chameron - 0.75 pts e/w @ 20/1. (NRNB - SkyBet, 1/4 odds first 4)
Dolos - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 (NRNB - SkyBet, 1/4 odds first 4)
...and finally to the Brown Advisory Plate. Paul Nicholls has a dismal record in this race having made ten entries in six of the eight previous seasons (no runner in 2011 or 2014) and the best he has managed is a fifth place in 2010. That wouldn't make any entry he makes in this season's race of particular interest at first glance but one of those entries could be Bouvreuil and he looks like he has been saved for a Festival handicap. He is owned by J.P McManus, who likes targeting big handicaps, and his record on both the new and old courses at Cheltenham is good, despite not winning here in five previous visits. He was a close second over hurdles in the Fred Winter in 2015 and a narrow second again in the Close Brother Chase last season. His best three efforts over fences (from seven starts) have all come at Cheltenham, two on the old course over an extended 20 furlongs and one on the new course over 21 furlongs. His only two starts this season have both been here and they have seen him finish 5th of 17(beaten just under seven lengths) and 6th of 16 (beaten just over seven lengths) in Grade Three handicaps. He has been dropped a pound since and the last of those starts was in December. That suggests he is being held back for a race at this meeting and this race looks the most likely target. He doesn't win very often but his record at big meetings, and at this venue, means he is highly likely to get very competitive. With the NRNB concession being offered it looks worth chancing he will turn up in this race. If he does the 16/1 being offered by Bet365 will not last for long and, with the concession being offered along with those odds, its too tempting to resist.
16.10 - Cheltenham - Thursday 16th March 2017 - The Brown Advisory and Merrirbelle Stable Plate:
Bouvreuil - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1. (NRNB - Bet365, 1/4 odds first 4)
Paul Nicholls runners in handicaps:
In the heady heydays of Kauto Star, Master Minded, Big Bucks, Rock On Ruby, Azertyuiop etc it was common to see the Paul Nicholls representatives winning, if not getting highly competitive, in some of the top races at the Cheltenham Festival. With such a big operation it will probably happen again at some time in the future but there seems to have been a concerted effort to target some of the handicaps at the meeting in recent seasons. With recent stable stars such as Silviniaco Conti seemingly not in love with the Prestbury Park track it has proved to be a shrewd move.
Of the yard's 12 Festival winners between 2009 and 2012 they had 3 win (plus 3 placed) in handicap company. Two of those successful came over hurdles and one over fences and involved 44 entries in 31 of the 40 conventional handicaps (not including the Cross Country Chase). Between 2013 and 2016 they had 8 winners at the Festival. 7 of those came in handicaps, 6 over hurdles and 1 over fences, and a further 10 were placed. They came from 58 runners in 33 of the 40 conventional handicaps. To win 7 of the 33 handicaps they entered in the latter period is no mean feat and it's backed up by the performance of 10 stablemates being placed. Amongst that record their performances in two handicaps in particular stand out.
In the past four seasons Paul Nicholls has entered eight horses in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle:
2013:
Salubrious (IRE), 6-11-5 OR:145, 6 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 1st at 16/1.
2014:
Caid Du Berlais (FR), 5-11-5 OR:143, 6 previous runs for the Trainer (12 in total). 3rd at 9/1.
Urbain De Sivola (FR), 6-10-6 OR:135, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (13 in total). 4th at 33/1.
Virak (FR), 5-11-5 OR:146, 7 previous winners for the Trainer (7 in total). 6th at 25/1.
2015:
Pearl Swan (FR), 7-11-4 OR:138, 6 previous runs for the Trainer (11 in total). 6th at 33/1.
Le Mercurey (FR), 5-11-10 OR:144, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (5 in total). 7th at 8/1.
2016:
Ibis Du Rheu (FR), 5-11-7 OR:139, 5 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 1st at 14/1.
Qualando (FR), 5-11-7 OR:139, 7 previous runs for the Trainer (10 in total). 16th at 10/1.
Mr Mix (FR), 5-11-6 OR:138, 4 previous runs for the Trainer (5 in total). F at 16/1(in contention but under pressure when fell at the last, normally two out).
At this time it's not confirmed who will represent the yard in the race this season but two contenders could be Lac Fontana and Brio Conti:
Lac Fontana: Only had two starts after returning from a 21 month absence but there was a bit of promise on his last start over three miles at Newbury and he is now back down to the mark from which he was successful in the County Hurdle at the 2014 Festival. He followed that with a Grade One Novice win at Aintree. Two of his last three starts have come at around three miles so whether the step back in trip for this race would be suitable at this stage of his career is a question he would have to answer. He is now more exposed that the yard's typical representative in this race and he would need to improve significantly for this third start back from his break if he were to get competitive.
Brio Conti: Preferred to Lac Fontana. He is a six year old French bred who has had just the six starts, all for Paul Nicholls. He showed some ability in two Bumpers but fell at the first on his hurdling debut at Kelso (odds on favourite). He almost made amends on his second start over obstacles but went down by half a length to Constantine Bay over 19 furlongs at Haydock. His conqueror has won both his starts subsequently and is now rated 142. The third, who was ten lengths behind, has also franked the form. Brio Conti created a favourable impression when very easily winning an extended 19 furlong Maiden Hurdle at Doncaster last time out but sandwiched in between that was a below par effort over 17 furlongs at Cheltenham. However his Trainer mentioned that the horse would be considered for the Festival on the back of his last performance, which suggests connections don't think the track at Prestbury Park was responsible for his lesser performance. He is Officially Rated 134 which leaves him very close to the cut off mark of recent seasons (2016 was 135, 2015 was 135, 2014 was 133 and 2013 was 131) and wouldn't get him into either the Coral Cup or County Hurdle. He does hold an entry in the Neptune Novices Hurdle but the lowest rated winner of that race in the past eight seasons has been 142 (the rest between 146 and 156) and the yard has not had a runner in the race for the past five seasons. They did have a runner back in 2011 who came second but he was rated 147. His entry in the race does at least give an indication of the regard Brio Conti is held in by connections and he is part-owned by John Hales, who has had a number of winners at the Festival with Paul Nicholls. With both Bet365 and Skybet giving a NRNB concession on the race an e/w wager at 10/1 looks appropriate.
16.50 - Cheltenham - Friday 17th March 2017 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle:
Brio Conti - 1.5 pts e/w. @ 10/1. (NRNB - Bet365, SkyBet - 1/4 odds first 4).
Over the same period (2013-2016) Paul Nicholls has entered ten horses in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (for 4 year old Novices) and seven of them have finished in the frame, two of them winning. Even in the four previous seasons, when the yard's record in handicaps was poorer, they were successful with one of their three entries (no runner in 2009).
2013:
Caid Du Berlais (FR), 10-12 OR:137, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (8 in total). 2nd at 20/1.
Ptit Zig (FR), 10-10 OR:130, 1 previous run for the Trainer (4 in total). 3rd at 22/1.
Saphir Du Rheu (FR), 10-10 OR:130, 1 previous run for the Trainer (3 in total). 20th at 6/1.
2014:
Keltus (FR), 10-13 OR:128, 3 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 4th at 25/1.
Solar Impulse (FR), 11-3 OR:135, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (7 in total). 7th at 25/1.
2015:
Qualando (FR), 11-00 OR:131, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (5 in total). 1st at 25/1.
Bouvreuil (FR), 11-2 OR:133, 2 previous runs for the Trainer (11 in total). 2nd at 14/1.
All Yours (FR), 11-6 OR:137, 3 previous runs for the Trainer (4 in total). 5th at 11/1.
2016:
Diego Du Charmil, 11-1 OR:131, 0 previous runs for the Trainer (3 in total) 1st at 13/2.
Romain De Senam, 11-4 OR:135, 4 previous runners for the Trainer (7 in total) 2nd at 20/1.
Looking at his current pool it's hard to predict which of the Trainer's runners will be targeted at this race but his record suggests that he will have at least one entry. With some of the Bookmakers giving the NRNB concession it at least gives us the chance of being brave. If our selections don't run our money is returned but if they do then the performance of the yard in the race in recent seasons suggests we are likely to get a good run for our money. Therefore we are going to suggest Dreamcatching, Chameron and Dolos.
Dreamcatching: Only had two starts for his current Trainer (5 in total) and, after being well beaten on his debut for current connections, he easily won a Maiden at Wincanton on Saturday (18th Feb.). What he beat is open to question with the favourite under-performing in third and the second making his hurdling debut after being well beaten in two Bumpers. He would need to find a significant amount of improvement to be competitive in a Festival race but he is the type to flourish once he is fully acclimatised. He is entered into the Grade Two Adonis Hurdle at Kempton on Feb. 25th and, if he takes his place, it will qualify him for this race and it's likely his performance will be a big guide to his connections as to whether a tilt at this prize is worthwhile.
Chameron: Looks an unlikely runner at this stage having not been seen since October and yet to make his debut for Paul Nicholls. However last seasons winner, Diego Du Charmil, won on his first start for the yard having been absent since the previous November. He had made three previous starts over hurdles in France without winning. Chameron won his two starts in France at Auteuil but has no booked entries over the next seven days.
Dolos: On his first run for Paul Nicholls he easily beat Rainbow Dreamer (making his hurdling debut and now rated 132) in a four runner affair at Chepstow over two miles. He was beaten 18 and a half lengths into third in a Grade One event over 18 furlongs at Auteuil after that but the two that beat him there are very progressive French hurdlers and there were useful types in fourth, fifth and sixth. He was again put to the sword in his next start at Chepstow back over two miles but the two ahead of him (13 lengths and 5 lengths) were rated 143 and 144 (now rated 155 and 142) and both hold entries in the Triumph Hurdle. Dolos kicked off his four year old campaign with another third (of 10), beaten seven and a half lengths in a Novice race over 18 furlongs at Taunton. He was made a short priced favourite that day, and the performance looked disappointing at the time, but the winner won a handicap from a mark of 132 on Saturday so the form may have a bit more substance than at first thought. Rated 135, he may be suited by a fast pace over two miles on a track like Cheltenham.
16.50 - Cheltenham - Wednesday 15th March 2017 - Fred Winter Juvenile handicap Hurdle:
Dreamcatching - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1. (NRNB - SkyBet, 1/4 odds first 4)
Chameron - 0.75 pts e/w @ 20/1. (NRNB - SkyBet, 1/4 odds first 4)
Dolos - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 (NRNB - SkyBet, 1/4 odds first 4)
...and finally to the Brown Advisory Plate. Paul Nicholls has a dismal record in this race having made ten entries in six of the eight previous seasons (no runner in 2011 or 2014) and the best he has managed is a fifth place in 2010. That wouldn't make any entry he makes in this season's race of particular interest at first glance but one of those entries could be Bouvreuil and he looks like he has been saved for a Festival handicap. He is owned by J.P McManus, who likes targeting big handicaps, and his record on both the new and old courses at Cheltenham is good, despite not winning here in five previous visits. He was a close second over hurdles in the Fred Winter in 2015 and a narrow second again in the Close Brother Chase last season. His best three efforts over fences (from seven starts) have all come at Cheltenham, two on the old course over an extended 20 furlongs and one on the new course over 21 furlongs. His only two starts this season have both been here and they have seen him finish 5th of 17(beaten just under seven lengths) and 6th of 16 (beaten just over seven lengths) in Grade Three handicaps. He has been dropped a pound since and the last of those starts was in December. That suggests he is being held back for a race at this meeting and this race looks the most likely target. He doesn't win very often but his record at big meetings, and at this venue, means he is highly likely to get very competitive. With the NRNB concession being offered it looks worth chancing he will turn up in this race. If he does the 16/1 being offered by Bet365 will not last for long and, with the concession being offered along with those odds, its too tempting to resist.
16.10 - Cheltenham - Thursday 16th March 2017 - The Brown Advisory and Merrirbelle Stable Plate:
Bouvreuil - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1. (NRNB - Bet365, 1/4 odds first 4)
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