A question for the time merchants.

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Colin Phillips

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How good is the 2-y-o who won the first at Leicester yesterday?

The Mark Johnston filly, Marie De Medici, set a new juvenile course record, was the only winner to dip under standard, and her seven furlong time was at least two seconds faster than the two other races run over that distance yesterday.
 
I'm no time expert but they were hung out like the washing behind so I suspect it was a decent performance.
 
Mel, I asked the same question on the OHRacing forum and there have been a couple of responses on there that might be of interest to you.
 
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The second would also have to be pretty decent? Only beaten 2 lengths (i.e. a less than a length away from breaking the juvenile course record also); a further 8 back to third (rated 81!).
 
That's what I mean - there are mixed messages. The 3yo in the last is rated 85 was 2 and a bit seconds slower, but the runner up in that race is only rated 43.

I'd imagine he's probably a 100ish class animal but I'd like to see how time raters would come up with this.
 
I've not had chance to go through it but it looks staggering compared to the rest card. I'd be keen to watch the race back and watch the other 7 furlong races back to see if they actually started the race in the same place as the other two! Given it's Leicester, it wouldn't surprise me!
 
Gamla Stan said:
I'd be keen to watch the race back and watch the other 7 furlong races back to see if they actually started the race in the same place as the other two!
Click to expand...

That thought did occur to me too - but it would take a good deal of carlessness to get it wrong for just one out of three 7f races on the card! It was the first race of the day, however, and stranger things have happened. There's also mention of a false rail being in place, but I don't know Leicester well enough to know if this could affect things in any way.
 
It wouldn't be unusual for only one race on a card to be truly run. It might just have been a lousy card run on very fast ground.
 
I've now had a look at the Leicester race.

I think Marie De Medici has run one of those races that would get her into a 'Horses To Follow' type of book. The time works out by my figures as promising, rather than outstanding.

There wasn't a lot of class about that day but the ground was fast and the wind was behind them, so conditions were conducive to fast times, but hers was the only decent one. A comparison with the Class 5 h'cap reads very well but it puts the later 6f fillies' h'cap miles too fast so I've taken the latter race as the true-run one and worked out a going allowance from there. It puts MDM on 86 before wfa. It's the kind of time you'd probably want to see a decent filly put up at Royal Ascot and equates to a rating of about 105, or Listed class.

Take a form line with the third's OR of 81 and it works out at 107 so I think we're very much in the ball park.

Today's chances will depend on the strength of opposition, obviously.
 
She's about 6/5 on Betfair but about 7/1 on the morning PMU, obviously both are very flawed and she'll probably end up around 5/2 on Betfair and around 10/3 on the PMU come the off I suspect.
 
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