A related contingency of sorts?

D

davidjohnson

At the Start
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Jun 29, 2007
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Hear me out before shooting me down!

We have horses in 2 divisions of the 5f handicap at Southwell on Tuesday whose chances are related to strength of one particular formline. Basically Kheley and Thoughtsofstardom finished first and second in an apprentice handicap over course and distance on Dec 10, finishing well clear of the rest. Either this form is very strong (the time suggests so) or it isn't as good as it looks. Either way, does anyone else think that a strong showing i.e. a win for Thoughtsofstardom in the first race, would back up the strength of the Dec 10 form and therefore increase the chance of Kheley winning the second division.

Alternatively, I've broken the Christmas sherry out early.
 
I can't view the races but the obvious answer is - of course it does. It's a complete no brainer.
 
It would most definitely boost the chances of Kheley (at least from a form point of view) should Thoughtsofstardom win.
 
By far the most interesting runner in the opener is of course The Magic Of Rio,claimed by Dave Evans from Peter Grayson after in true Grayson style the horse has plummeted about 4 stones in the weights.
Currently about 13/2 on the exchanges,fair to say you'd be talking 66's at least if still with Grayson.
 
Arkwright said:
By far the most interesting runner in the opener is of course The Magic Of Rio,claimed by Dave Evans from Peter Grayson after in true Grayson style the horse has plummeted about 4 stones in the weights.
Currently about 13/2 on the exchanges,fair to say you'd be talking 66's at least if still with Grayson.
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Horses released from the hell of Formby should really be great betting propositions, but many of them simply lose the will to live, so I wouldn't be rushing to take short odds on Magic of Rio making the frame.
 
I do wonder what it is that Grayson does to the animals. It's not like he constantly gets bad animals either, as he seems to run a few decent ones which end up shockingly bad.
 
Simon said:
I do wonder what it is that Grayson does to the animals. It's not like he constantly gets bad animals either, as he seems to run a few decent ones which end up shockingly bad.
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"End up" suggests it's a gradual process. I reckon he'd have Workforce beaten in sellers within a week of getting him. It's either frightening or mortifying - I'm unsure which. :ninja:
 
I read the original post about ten minutes after I'd sent my atr copy (which makes an almost identical case) in this morning. I hope David is right! The time of the second division of the race the pair ran in at Southwell suggests they might have pulled 5l clear in that, too. How much we can rely on them both to reproduce the form is obviously the question, but if they do, both will be hard to beat.
 
It clearly would boost his chances but for betting purposes, it can't be considered a related contingency as you would have numerous, albeit less clear and obvious examples on a daily basis using shared formlines between 2 or more horses running in separate races.

And, nothing wrong with breaking out the Xmas drinks early.:)
 
Hamm said:
It clearly would boost his chances but for betting purposes, it can't be considered a related contingency as you would have numerous, albeit less clear and obvious examples on a daily basis using shared formlines between 2 or more horses running in separate races.
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I believe DJ is using the term related contingency in its absolute sense, rather than in its guise as para 1 of the "Bookmakers' Book of Excuses".
 
LUKE said:
For my money Alpha Tauri is a place lay at odds on.
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I can't argue with that logic given his overall record, but have to admit I've backed him outright at 3.75. He's clearly a win-or-bust type but I think he's a potential blot if none the worse for his latest effort. Given that was his second run after an absence, I'm happy to take the chance, especially as his drift in the market is very easily explained.
 
rorydelargy said:
I can't argue with that logic given his overall record, but have to admit I've backed him outright at 3.75. He's clearly a win-or-bust type but I think he's a potential blot if none the worse for his latest effort. Given that was his second run after an absence, I'm happy to take the chance, especially as his drift in the market is very easily explained.
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Looking to lay half my stake back at around 7/4 in running, and a chunk more at 1/2 and shorter. Reckon he has the speed to lead or dispute against these, and that in itself will see him go pretty short, even if he falls in a hole.
 
rorydelargy said:
Looking to lay half my stake back at around 7/4 in running, and a chunk more at 1/2 and shorter. Reckon he has the speed to lead or dispute against these, and that in itself will see him go pretty short, even if he falls in a hole.
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Couldn't have fallen in a bigger hole, but still traded around 2.7 for fair money.
 
The Magic of Rio ran well and whilst I don't know if he'll take up his engagement tomorrow,I'm sure there'll be a bit more to come and that he'll be winning during the winter months.
 
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Only just started getting back into the game after 3 weeks off for a holiday and some time out. Wish I'd seen this thread, love Southwell sprints, find there is lots of value to be had if you look deep enough.

Should keep a similar thread going throughout the AW season given there won't be any NH racing until about March 4th now.
 
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