swedish chef
At the Start
I used to work the nights 4 x 12 hour shifts and spent a lot of time studying the racing - here are a few examples some good, some near misses and some spectacularly wrong. Rarely do I find the time to put in the hours of study these days but I hope you enjoy reading them and post some of your own memories good or bad
2:50 Southwell - Ours; bad horse or a plot up
Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 10:20 AM (118 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Oct 22 2008, 10:20 AM Post #1
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I thought i'd study this race as it was a 16 runner Hcap Chase with about the worst bunch of runners you'll see all day - in the hope i might find one with a glimmer of hope at a big price - so after hours of study i picked out 4 creating my own market - and made Ours a 25/1 shot in my mind- it had a chance on a piece of form last year on boxing day for Nick Gifford - just beaten in a grade higher. So ive made up my mind this has a shout and check to see what price it is in the markets - and its trading everywhere at 8/1 to 9/1 - why? its last 6 races its been well and truly beat -so now i'm intrigued - and delve deeper into the horse - its been running in 3m+ chases and consistently weakening in every race - so i look at pedigree - its half-brother Karloff was a 2m 1f Chase winner - Its last race was in April and it had now dropped down to a Chase hcap mark of 85 the same as its Hurdle mark when it ran so well last boxing day - so now i look at the trainer M G Rimmel - he's had 16 runners this year with 4 wins - 25% strike rate - impressive - then i go have have a look at the conditions of the race and BINGO !!!! the race is called The Fred Rimmel Memorial Hcap Chase - bad horse or plot up - well its gonna cost me £10 to find out - it could just be they want a runner in the race - you make up your own minds.
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,284005,00.html
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The Colin Wesley celebration Hcap; 3:20 Huntingdon
Topic Started: Oct 29 2008, 01:47 AM (107 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Oct 29 2008, 01:47 AM Post #1
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OK - before i start please be advised this race should be watched and not bet on as the information is vague and no concrete proof could be established linking this man to this horse for definite.
I looked up Colin Wesley and found someone of this name who represented The Green Party at the Wednesbury South Ward elections and finished 4th - he then went on to represent the parish of Radclive-cum-Chackmore in Cambridgeshire - a village centred around its historical church - he may or may not of gone to Cambridge university - but there is a link between the name Wesley and a document called - The Journal of Ecclesicstical History - its an ongoing work that keeps getting added to - This document first started when a professor went over to Louiseville and bought the beginnings of it back to london then onto Cambridge University - there's also a historical reference of some Baptists called Wesley going to Louiseville - the document itself is a record of the history of Christianity and has references about the affects of historical events such as wars etc.., on Christianity - there is a reference to the name Wesley with II after it in this journal but you cannot get the information without paying for it - there is also a reference to Bao Dai the last Emperor of Vietnam - there is also a link to the name Wesley and the abdication of Bao Dai but this is vague. There is also a horse running in this race called:
BAODAI
Trainer: P J Hobbs Owner: Louisville Syndicate II
Breeder: Laure De Premont And Jaques Thoreau
Cadoudal(FR) (18.0f) - Royale Aube(FR) (Garde Royale(11.2f))
Now i know what your thinking but a lot of this is just based on the surname Wesley and there are thousands out there and this Colin Wesley could be anybody - i could not link him to this syndicate as hard as i tried so a watching brief is advised - but **** it i'll have a fiver just in case and i promise you thats all i'm betting - because i know you will and i have to - it took 5 hours to gather this ****ing info and already i wish i hadn't bothered - but if it does come in i would never have forgiven myself for not putting it up - this info is not as strong as it looks i promise you - crucial connections could not be verified. - and without knowing if he went to Cambridge or had anything to do with the journal or if its his syndicate we could just be pissing in the park - the horse could still win as it has a chance and we would still never know
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race_Pup/0,13215,284713,00.html
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Another possible plot - up; Galway 2:05 - Tigerlion
Topic Started: Oct 27 2008, 05:17 AM (160 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Oct 27 2008, 05:17 AM Post #1
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TIGERLION
Trainer: J Bleahen Owner: J F O´Malley
Breeder: Cooliney Stud
Supreme Leader (12.4f) - Avida Dancer (Ballymore(12.2f))
This horse has been of the course for 2 1/2 years - before his problems he was developing into a very useful chaser - in fact the form he was showing was by far better than anything he is racing against today - so i decided to dig deep and see if there was any reason he might have a chance today - i personally avoid horses that have been off with problems and missed a whole season let alone two and a half - so i checked trainer form - in the last 5 years the trainer has only trained one other horse:
LORD OF THE TURF
Trainer: J Bleahen Owner: J F O´Malley
Breeder: J F O'Malley
Supreme Leader (12.4f) - Avida Dancer (Ballymore(12.2f))
This horse a full brother to Tigerlion had a very similar profile - he was a progressive chaser and ran very well in the Galway Plate - he also developed problems and was off the course for nearly 2 years - he then had 3 good runs in hunter chases - then had his 1st race under rules and duly hacked up by 8 lengts in a 3m chase at Leopardstown - he never got his form back in 3 races after that, and was retired - sadly dying only 2 weeks later. He won 6 times in his career 3 times in a row over 2 1/2 miles at Galway twice on heavy ground.
The only thing stopping me having a maximum bet on this is: - i cant find out if the horse has been hunter chasing or not - i can only summise that it has been lovingly nursed back to health & there are vets bills to be paid.
Its currently 10/1 on Betfair
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,284675,00.html
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Melbourne cup; whats everyone doing
Topic Started: Nov 3 2008, 05:09 PM (117 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Nov 3 2008, 05:09 PM Post #1
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i'm doing 3 - all small e/was - Alessanro volta and the 2 Bart Cummins horses - he's won it 11 times - might be some value.
the more i look at this Allesandro Volta's pedigree the more i like it - as long as he isn't there as a pacemaker i reckon he'll keep staying on to the line - i think the firm ground will suit him & only carrying 7-13 - i'm begiining to wish i'd put more than 2.50 e/way on him. - anyway time will tell. good luck all
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,285719,00.html
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Towcester 12:10 - Arctic Spirit
Topic Started: Nov 22 2008, 10:00 PM (59 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Nov 22 2008, 10:00 PM Post #1
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This horse has a race named after him - he is 13 years old so slightly risky getting too heavily involved but he is with a shrewd trainer, and connections obviously will be trying to win the race - its a very poor race 0-90 and if the horse can repeat any of his 2 runs from 6 months ago over track and distance it should be good enough - he is 4lb lower in the Hcap with a good 5lb claimer on board, so effectively 9lb lower than 6 months ago - he has run 20 times at the track - winning 4 and placed in another 7 - i think if he wins this they will retire him - his forecast price is about 8/1 but i don't think he will go off that big although it is possible - i would suggest a small bet at early prices or an 80/20 bet at sp. - unpl
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Topic Started: Nov 23 2008, 12:46 AM (66 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Nov 23 2008, 12:46 AM Post #1
Posts:
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Group:
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#195
Joined:
September 30, 2008
Peter Bowen has an excellent record with his runners at this meeting over the years and all at good honest working man's prices - in the last 5 years if you had backed his horses blindly at Aintree you would have a 74+ poin profit - if you had just done them at this particular meeting then your margins would be a lot higher - He has 4 runners entered today 2 of which run in the big 2 chases - unfortunately his chase win percentages are not in the same class as his hurdle percentages - but he does give good positive write ups about them in his stable tour - also naming these particular races as their targets:
1:40 - Iron Man 25/1 - " He's now definately on the right mark - he's in very good form and we'll probably try and keep him fresh for the 2m6f race over the national fences. He's been desperately unlucky every time he's been to Aintree through no fault of his own - he fell in the Becher last year when he looked like he would definitely be in the first three." - 3rd - 16/1
2:15 - Serabad 11/2 - Doesn't get a write up but the horse is on the same mark as when he last won a hurdle in this grade in February - trainer has a 33% strike rate with his hurdlers at this track - and a higher place percentage especially at this meeting. - w 9/2
2:50 - Always Waining 10/1 - " Won a listed race at Market Rasen in September on his last start, and he improved for the application of a tongue tie. He's on a mark of 147, so things will probably be a bit harder for him. He has an entry for The Paddy Power and The Hennessy, but The Becher Chase is the race i would like to go for." - non-runner
3:25 - Mizen Raven 11/1 - the trainer wasn't particularly positive or negative about this one - he thinks he might be hard to place, but he also mentions the horse has had a wind-op since his last run. - unpl
2:50 Southwell - Ours; bad horse or a plot up
Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 10:20 AM (118 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Oct 22 2008, 10:20 AM Post #1
Posts:
7,498
Group:
ITK Member
Member
#195
Joined:
September 30, 2008
I thought i'd study this race as it was a 16 runner Hcap Chase with about the worst bunch of runners you'll see all day - in the hope i might find one with a glimmer of hope at a big price - so after hours of study i picked out 4 creating my own market - and made Ours a 25/1 shot in my mind- it had a chance on a piece of form last year on boxing day for Nick Gifford - just beaten in a grade higher. So ive made up my mind this has a shout and check to see what price it is in the markets - and its trading everywhere at 8/1 to 9/1 - why? its last 6 races its been well and truly beat -so now i'm intrigued - and delve deeper into the horse - its been running in 3m+ chases and consistently weakening in every race - so i look at pedigree - its half-brother Karloff was a 2m 1f Chase winner - Its last race was in April and it had now dropped down to a Chase hcap mark of 85 the same as its Hurdle mark when it ran so well last boxing day - so now i look at the trainer M G Rimmel - he's had 16 runners this year with 4 wins - 25% strike rate - impressive - then i go have have a look at the conditions of the race and BINGO !!!! the race is called The Fred Rimmel Memorial Hcap Chase - bad horse or plot up - well its gonna cost me £10 to find out - it could just be they want a runner in the race - you make up your own minds.
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,284005,00.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Colin Wesley celebration Hcap; 3:20 Huntingdon
Topic Started: Oct 29 2008, 01:47 AM (107 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Oct 29 2008, 01:47 AM Post #1
Posts:
7,498
Group:
ITK Member
Member
#195
Joined:
September 30, 2008
OK - before i start please be advised this race should be watched and not bet on as the information is vague and no concrete proof could be established linking this man to this horse for definite.
I looked up Colin Wesley and found someone of this name who represented The Green Party at the Wednesbury South Ward elections and finished 4th - he then went on to represent the parish of Radclive-cum-Chackmore in Cambridgeshire - a village centred around its historical church - he may or may not of gone to Cambridge university - but there is a link between the name Wesley and a document called - The Journal of Ecclesicstical History - its an ongoing work that keeps getting added to - This document first started when a professor went over to Louiseville and bought the beginnings of it back to london then onto Cambridge University - there's also a historical reference of some Baptists called Wesley going to Louiseville - the document itself is a record of the history of Christianity and has references about the affects of historical events such as wars etc.., on Christianity - there is a reference to the name Wesley with II after it in this journal but you cannot get the information without paying for it - there is also a reference to Bao Dai the last Emperor of Vietnam - there is also a link to the name Wesley and the abdication of Bao Dai but this is vague. There is also a horse running in this race called:
BAODAI
Trainer: P J Hobbs Owner: Louisville Syndicate II
Breeder: Laure De Premont And Jaques Thoreau
Cadoudal(FR) (18.0f) - Royale Aube(FR) (Garde Royale(11.2f))
Now i know what your thinking but a lot of this is just based on the surname Wesley and there are thousands out there and this Colin Wesley could be anybody - i could not link him to this syndicate as hard as i tried so a watching brief is advised - but **** it i'll have a fiver just in case and i promise you thats all i'm betting - because i know you will and i have to - it took 5 hours to gather this ****ing info and already i wish i hadn't bothered - but if it does come in i would never have forgiven myself for not putting it up - this info is not as strong as it looks i promise you - crucial connections could not be verified. - and without knowing if he went to Cambridge or had anything to do with the journal or if its his syndicate we could just be pissing in the park - the horse could still win as it has a chance and we would still never know
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race_Pup/0,13215,284713,00.html
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another possible plot - up; Galway 2:05 - Tigerlion
Topic Started: Oct 27 2008, 05:17 AM (160 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Oct 27 2008, 05:17 AM Post #1
Posts:
7,498
Group:
ITK Member
Member
#195
Joined:
September 30, 2008
TIGERLION
Trainer: J Bleahen Owner: J F O´Malley
Breeder: Cooliney Stud
Supreme Leader (12.4f) - Avida Dancer (Ballymore(12.2f))
This horse has been of the course for 2 1/2 years - before his problems he was developing into a very useful chaser - in fact the form he was showing was by far better than anything he is racing against today - so i decided to dig deep and see if there was any reason he might have a chance today - i personally avoid horses that have been off with problems and missed a whole season let alone two and a half - so i checked trainer form - in the last 5 years the trainer has only trained one other horse:
LORD OF THE TURF
Trainer: J Bleahen Owner: J F O´Malley
Breeder: J F O'Malley
Supreme Leader (12.4f) - Avida Dancer (Ballymore(12.2f))
This horse a full brother to Tigerlion had a very similar profile - he was a progressive chaser and ran very well in the Galway Plate - he also developed problems and was off the course for nearly 2 years - he then had 3 good runs in hunter chases - then had his 1st race under rules and duly hacked up by 8 lengts in a 3m chase at Leopardstown - he never got his form back in 3 races after that, and was retired - sadly dying only 2 weeks later. He won 6 times in his career 3 times in a row over 2 1/2 miles at Galway twice on heavy ground.
The only thing stopping me having a maximum bet on this is: - i cant find out if the horse has been hunter chasing or not - i can only summise that it has been lovingly nursed back to health & there are vets bills to be paid.
Its currently 10/1 on Betfair
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,284675,00.html
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Melbourne cup; whats everyone doing
Topic Started: Nov 3 2008, 05:09 PM (117 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Nov 3 2008, 05:09 PM Post #1
Posts:
7,498
Group:
ITK Member
Member
#195
Joined:
September 30, 2008
i'm doing 3 - all small e/was - Alessanro volta and the 2 Bart Cummins horses - he's won it 11 times - might be some value.
the more i look at this Allesandro Volta's pedigree the more i like it - as long as he isn't there as a pacemaker i reckon he'll keep staying on to the line - i think the firm ground will suit him & only carrying 7-13 - i'm begiining to wish i'd put more than 2.50 e/way on him. - anyway time will tell. good luck all
Result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,285719,00.html
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Towcester 12:10 - Arctic Spirit
Topic Started: Nov 22 2008, 10:00 PM (59 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Nov 22 2008, 10:00 PM Post #1
Posts:
7,498
Group:
ITK Member
Member
#195
Joined:
September 30, 2008
This horse has a race named after him - he is 13 years old so slightly risky getting too heavily involved but he is with a shrewd trainer, and connections obviously will be trying to win the race - its a very poor race 0-90 and if the horse can repeat any of his 2 runs from 6 months ago over track and distance it should be good enough - he is 4lb lower in the Hcap with a good 5lb claimer on board, so effectively 9lb lower than 6 months ago - he has run 20 times at the track - winning 4 and placed in another 7 - i think if he wins this they will retire him - his forecast price is about 8/1 but i don't think he will go off that big although it is possible - i would suggest a small bet at early prices or an 80/20 bet at sp. - unpl
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Topic Started: Nov 23 2008, 12:46 AM (66 Views) Append a Poll • Edit Topic Title
swedish chef
Nov 23 2008, 12:46 AM Post #1
Posts:
7,498
Group:
ITK Member
Member
#195
Joined:
September 30, 2008
Peter Bowen has an excellent record with his runners at this meeting over the years and all at good honest working man's prices - in the last 5 years if you had backed his horses blindly at Aintree you would have a 74+ poin profit - if you had just done them at this particular meeting then your margins would be a lot higher - He has 4 runners entered today 2 of which run in the big 2 chases - unfortunately his chase win percentages are not in the same class as his hurdle percentages - but he does give good positive write ups about them in his stable tour - also naming these particular races as their targets:
1:40 - Iron Man 25/1 - " He's now definately on the right mark - he's in very good form and we'll probably try and keep him fresh for the 2m6f race over the national fences. He's been desperately unlucky every time he's been to Aintree through no fault of his own - he fell in the Becher last year when he looked like he would definitely be in the first three." - 3rd - 16/1
2:15 - Serabad 11/2 - Doesn't get a write up but the horse is on the same mark as when he last won a hurdle in this grade in February - trainer has a 33% strike rate with his hurdlers at this track - and a higher place percentage especially at this meeting. - w 9/2
2:50 - Always Waining 10/1 - " Won a listed race at Market Rasen in September on his last start, and he improved for the application of a tongue tie. He's on a mark of 147, so things will probably be a bit harder for him. He has an entry for The Paddy Power and The Hennessy, but The Becher Chase is the race i would like to go for." - non-runner
3:25 - Mizen Raven 11/1 - the trainer wasn't particularly positive or negative about this one - he thinks he might be hard to place, but he also mentions the horse has had a wind-op since his last run. - unpl