Alfadora 1.00

[EC1]

When a horse is turned out quickly to beat a rise in the weights it can mean the race chosen may not be very carefully picked.

MF Harris turns Alfadora out at a course where his strike rate is 2/52 overall and 1/36 in hurdle races..added to that the jockey Charlie Poste lacks trackcraft..he is 0/26 here.

The bare figures don't tell the chance those horses had..but both jock and trainer hold the worst records at the course from all the other trainers and jocks in this.

Doesn't look the preferbial plot to me..at 2.38 the lay.. it must be worth taking on?

anyone?

 

[EC1]

course stats again mean little,

fav was 2/2 when turned out again quickly..horse more important tan trainer/jockey recods at tracks??

does anyone use trainer or jockey stas at individual courses?

 

[Colin Phillips]

EC, turning into the straight I thought you were sure to collect, but the favourite kept on well and nothing could make a determined enough challenge.

 

[EC1]

But

it's just possible a discussion about course statistics could transpire

then again..i'm probably wrong :brows:

 

[Sara]

Originally posted by EC1@Nov 5 2007, 01:07 PM
course stats again mean little,

fav was 2/2 when turned out again quickly..horse more important tan trainer/jockey recods at tracks??

does anyone use trainer or jockey stas at individual courses?

Yes, when I can be bothered to look them up, I find them very helpful
Those stats I pulled out on jocks who can ride Kempton were quite useful a few weeks ago

Mind you I wrote a crib for the party I went to Goodwood with in the summer, pointing out that JS had an abysmal record there as you needed to ride up with the pace, which he rarely did - only for him to win the first, of course

I think trainer / jockey stats for courses are very useful. George Moore at Brighton, Nicholls at Wincanton, Richards at Carlisle, Hannon at Windsor and Salisbury, Dunlop at Goodwood etc etc. And some jocks do certainly ride some courses better than they do others, eg straight or round, a/w or turf etc etc. Someone posted up a stat for Eddie Aherne on that recently didn't they? - showed he was much sharper on a sharp track

I keep meaning to make a proper table for these things but never get around to it
There's a Betfair service which does it for jocks at each meeting though - you have to hunt round the site a bit to find it

 

[betsmate]

I suspect we have very different styles and methods of punting EC1, but I don't think I would ever back or lay a horse purely based on course stats.

I love stats when betting on other sports, but in horse racing have rarely been able to convince myself that they are other than a statistical anomoly. Similarly I tend to disregard age and weight trends in certain races i.e. 4yo+ carrying less than 10.x.

For me it narrows doen the range of factors that goes into determining the winner too much.

Sure, if a horse perfers going right-handed over left, or a jockey is known to prefer holding them up it is factored in to my thinking. But taking stats in isolation has never done me any good.

 

[rorydelargy]

I hate to criticise Headstrong, but George Moore hasn't sent a single runner to Brighton in a very long training career. Still, you wouldn't be losing money backing his runners there

 

[Sara]

:laughing: Plumpton is it?? I know it's his local track!
I thought GM had quite a few flat horses as well as the jumpers...

 

[Colin Phillips]

"I hate to criticise ................."

That's a fib!!


Remove George and replace it with Gary, Heads.