Algorithms
- Thread starter yorick
- Start date
chaumi
Rookie
It would be impossible to manage manual monitoring of betting behaviours, and clearly monitoring (and associated reactions, if necessary to protect the bookmakers interests) is important from several angles. So, by inference, there must be algorithms that do the work.
I asked ChatGPT.................
Yes, bookmakers run sophisticated algorithms to monitor punters' betting behavior. These algorithms analyze various factors to detect patterns, assess risk, and manage potential liabilities. Here are some key areas where bookmakers use algorithms:
1. Behavioral Monitoring
Algorithms track betting patterns, such as bet size, frequency, the sports or events being bet on, and the markets used (e.g., live bets, accumulators). This helps bookmakers identify punters who may have advanced knowledge or betting strategies that give them an edge over the house.
Machine learning models can learn from a bettor’s past behavior and predict future actions, flagging irregularities or suspicious activity.
2. Identifying Sharp Bettors
Bookmakers use algorithms to detect "sharp bettors" or professional gamblers who consistently place successful bets. These bettors are more likely to have advanced systems, use statistical models, or take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. Once identified, sharp bettors may face account restrictions, lower bet limits, or even have their accounts closed.
3. Risk Management
Risk management systems use algorithms to assess the potential risk of a bet to the bookmaker. These algorithms analyze market trends, public sentiment, and betting volume. If a sudden surge of bets on a particular outcome is detected, the algorithm may adjust the odds to protect the bookmaker's profit margins.
Liability management is a crucial component, ensuring that the bookmaker doesn't expose itself to massive losses on particular events or bets.
4. Anti-Fraud and Anti-Collusion
Bookmakers deploy fraud detection algorithms to monitor for signs of collusion between punters or match-fixing. For instance, sudden coordinated bets placed by multiple accounts on unlikely outcomes may raise flags.
Geolocation and IP tracking algorithms are also used to ensure that users are betting from allowed regions and to detect multiple accounts from the same location, which could indicate fraudulent activity.
5. Responsible Gambling
Some platforms use algorithms to monitor problem gambling behaviors. By analyzing patterns such as chasing losses, increasing bet sizes after losses, or frequent betting late at night, the algorithms can flag potential signs of gambling addiction. Once flagged, responsible gambling tools like self-exclusion options or deposit limits can be suggested or enforced.
6. Personalization
Algorithms are also used to personalize the betting experience for users. By analyzing past behavior, the system can recommend specific markets, events, or promotions that align with a punter's betting habits, enhancing the user experience.
Conclusion:
Bookmakers leverage algorithms and machine learning for a wide range of purposes, from identifying professional bettors and managing risk to ensuring fair play and responsible gambling. These systems provide insights into bettor behavior and allow bookmakers to protect their business interests while maintaining a fair betting environment.
I asked ChatGPT.................
Yes, bookmakers run sophisticated algorithms to monitor punters' betting behavior. These algorithms analyze various factors to detect patterns, assess risk, and manage potential liabilities. Here are some key areas where bookmakers use algorithms:
1. Behavioral Monitoring
Algorithms track betting patterns, such as bet size, frequency, the sports or events being bet on, and the markets used (e.g., live bets, accumulators). This helps bookmakers identify punters who may have advanced knowledge or betting strategies that give them an edge over the house.
Machine learning models can learn from a bettor’s past behavior and predict future actions, flagging irregularities or suspicious activity.
2. Identifying Sharp Bettors
Bookmakers use algorithms to detect "sharp bettors" or professional gamblers who consistently place successful bets. These bettors are more likely to have advanced systems, use statistical models, or take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. Once identified, sharp bettors may face account restrictions, lower bet limits, or even have their accounts closed.
3. Risk Management
Risk management systems use algorithms to assess the potential risk of a bet to the bookmaker. These algorithms analyze market trends, public sentiment, and betting volume. If a sudden surge of bets on a particular outcome is detected, the algorithm may adjust the odds to protect the bookmaker's profit margins.
Liability management is a crucial component, ensuring that the bookmaker doesn't expose itself to massive losses on particular events or bets.
4. Anti-Fraud and Anti-Collusion
Bookmakers deploy fraud detection algorithms to monitor for signs of collusion between punters or match-fixing. For instance, sudden coordinated bets placed by multiple accounts on unlikely outcomes may raise flags.
Geolocation and IP tracking algorithms are also used to ensure that users are betting from allowed regions and to detect multiple accounts from the same location, which could indicate fraudulent activity.
5. Responsible Gambling
Some platforms use algorithms to monitor problem gambling behaviors. By analyzing patterns such as chasing losses, increasing bet sizes after losses, or frequent betting late at night, the algorithms can flag potential signs of gambling addiction. Once flagged, responsible gambling tools like self-exclusion options or deposit limits can be suggested or enforced.
6. Personalization
Algorithms are also used to personalize the betting experience for users. By analyzing past behavior, the system can recommend specific markets, events, or promotions that align with a punter's betting habits, enhancing the user experience.
Conclusion:
Bookmakers leverage algorithms and machine learning for a wide range of purposes, from identifying professional bettors and managing risk to ensuring fair play and responsible gambling. These systems provide insights into bettor behavior and allow bookmakers to protect their business interests while maintaining a fair betting environment.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,921
I still have no idea why Boylesprts won’t take a bet from me. I don’t recall winning from them or even placing more than two or three bets. I think I’ve been restricted at some point by most sites but they’ve eased off again after a time. Still restricted, though, by Sky, PP, Betfair, and a few others.
chaumi
Rookie
I think they just scattergun free spins (I get them too, and haven't been in the online casino section of a bookie for 15 years...well, at least for betting purposes, I do for research occasionally). I believe the premise is they have nothing to lose, and turning only a few horse racing punters on to slots just by hitting them at the 'right' time is a no brainer for them.
So, bookies sharing their findings on their punters with other betting firms?
chaumi
Rookie
I think that would make sense if a high percentage of your in running bets are successful (and/or maybe you had a few big hit winners that way). The algorithm would know that and, in theory, be able to adapt.
But....that's likely only the case if we're talking about significant (ish) numbers of £s. There would surely be a balance, say if you were (over time) down on other types of bets, why would they take the risk of pissing a 'profitable' punter off.
There are probably a range/combination of factors that would give an algorithm the heads up to do something specific.
simmo
Senior Jockey
That would be illegal, I believe. Data protection act.
Perhaps the algorithm would only concentrate on the percentage of winning in-running bets rather than profit in ££’s.
How nuanced are they?
chaumi
Rookie
Ah that we don't know. But yes you could be right. And that would explain why we get limited or (losing, over time) accounts closed. It could be working with a balance towards risk factors rather than actual £s won over time (ie the risk that this punter could one day - or over a series of bets - pull one over on us)
Taking my example with 365 - a 15-20 year old account, few biggish wins in that period (though none into 5 figures) - and I 'stupidly' have a £25 antepost win on Soul Sister at 100. Result - account closed before the Oaks is even run. I'd never had even anything over a tenner on an antepost winning bet before that with 365. I doubt that was a manual action, the algorithm just put 2 and 2 together, came up with four and a quarter, and decided there was sufficient future risk. Most probably combining that bet with one or two others over the years.
Taking my example with 365 - a 15-20 year old account, few biggish wins in that period (though none into 5 figures) - and I 'stupidly' have a £25 antepost win on Soul Sister at 100. Result - account closed before the Oaks is even run. I'd never had even anything over a tenner on an antepost winning bet before that with 365. I doubt that was a manual action, the algorithm just put 2 and 2 together, came up with four and a quarter, and decided there was sufficient future risk. Most probably combining that bet with one or two others over the years.